Quote from Commie on November 27, 2018, 7:18 pm

That is Ty France's ceiling for example.

Quote from fenn68 on November 28, 2018, 9:35 am

Heard an interview with Corey Brock (former MLB writer with the Pads and now in Seattle) mainly about the Myers - Segura / Leake rumor. Note that he was not giving any opinion on the specific players discussed ... just more the feasibility of such a deal.

In his view, the deal is still viable ... and apparently Preller and Dipoto have an excellent relationship plus Preller years ago tried to deal for Segura (when in MILW, I think). However, that deal may not be the current priority for Dipoto while he scans all his deal options with moving Cano (and much of his contract) high up the list.

He did not believe the Mariners were seeking prospects in the lower minors ... they may want to do a quick rebuild (2-3 years) not a total rebuild (5-6 years) ... suggesting dealing for long control ML players or AAA/AA prospects along with shedding contracts (which they have an abundance of bad ones) to redeploy money to needs (not to just lower payroll).

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Separately, heard that both the NYY and Phil have inquired about Segura but the fate of Machado may delay any action with those teams ... just reason to delay decisions.

NYY lost Gregorious for at least half the season (and he is a FA after next season) adding to the speculation that going after Machado (who wants to be in NY) is realistic and could result in non-tender of Gregorious. Add Segura for SS and shift Machado to 3B(if they sign him) then shift Andjuar to 1B makes sense for the NYY.

PHIL ... the worst defensive team in MLB based on DRS ... just needs a SS (their 2018 guys did not pan out) but in their case if the go with Machado they likely don't really need Segura.

Sure there are others interested but Seattle is in a position to wait it out for the better deal. So, Myers to Seattle is still possible but I would not rule out a package to get Segura that does not include Myers IF Preller finds a different buyer for Myers (one that takes his contract ... which is not as burdensome to some at $64MM/4 years (AAV $16MM). Stay tuned.

Quote from Brian Connelly on November 28, 2018, 10:51 am

Quote from fenn68 on November 27, 2018, 7:21 am

Consensus is beginning to grow that the Braves will NOT deal any of Camargo (go super utility), Riley (the future when Donaldson departs), or Swanson, in part, because it is thought they may have another $20-30MM available to spend for the needed RF and RP.

If that is the case, probably not a good match with the Padres ... Padres could offer up Renfroe / Myers for RF or Yates for the pen BUT the return would have to come from the Braves farm system ... which is deep in SP (not the biggest need of SD) and little else (given Riley is out of the mix) plus with money yet to deploy why deplete the farm system of the better prospects.

Guessing this is a dry well for a trade.

Ever since the time he signed his extremely back loaded deal, I've always thought Myers' contract was structured that way to make him an appealing trade candidate to a team in the right situation.  Remember, his 2019  SALARY is only 3 MM... 8.5 MM of his compensation is last portion of installment signing bonus; which I'm assuming Pads are on the hook for no matter what.

From Braves' website:      1. The Braves are making their move
The Braves were probably a year early in winning the NL East in 2018, benefiting from the Nationals' implosion, the typical Mets limbo and the Phillies not quite being ready to take that next leap. The organization probably saw 2019 as the first real year of its competitive window, and with all the young pitching that's coming down the pipeline, it's a window that should stay open for a while. Look at Atlanta's projected '19 lineup now:

1. Ronald Acuna Jr., RF
2. Ozzie Albies, 2B
3. Freddie Freeman, 1B
4. Josh Donaldson, 3B
5. Johan Camargo, LF
6. Ender Inciarte, CF
7. Dansby Swanson, SS
8. Tyler Flowers (or Brian McCann), C

Camargo, a breakthrough guy last year, can move around positions...

I looked at Carmago's MLB & Minors stats & here's what I found:  1)  Has played 2 innings in career in OF.  2)  In minors he hit 15 HR in > 1,900 AB (to be fair, his slugging improved last 3 yrs).  Stole 3 bases last 3 years.  3)  He was #25 Braves prospect going into 2016, and <#30 going into 2017!   He had a nice debut & a clear breakout last year, but can he really sustain what he did last year?  I think the beat writer is being a bit of an optimistic "homer" here plugging him in as LF/#5 hole ... Carmago has super utility guy written all over him.

I would think Braves would fall all over themselves to trade Carmago for Myers:

1. Myers a perfect fit at LF & #5 hole in this lineup.  They have $ remaining in 2019 to fill utility & RP needs.  Then in 2020, Myers' salary increase to 20 MM just takes the place of Donaldson's $ this year.  3B = Riley.
2. Seemingly puts Braves over the top in NL East as team to beat (interesting tangential effect on NY Mets who might see scales tipped in favor of trading Syndergaard... see below)
3. On a team with Freeman & Donaldson, Myers a better fit not having to be "the guy".
4. Myers' positional flexibility to be at least an emergency 3B is an asset.

Myers might be a "sell low" situation, but he's not a contract dump; need to balance the trade.  How about:

Padres get:   Carmago & a MLB top 100 "55" grade prospect (Ideal: RHP Ian Anderson, OK: RHP Bryse Wilson; assume Braves won't trade guys on MLB doorstep)

Braves get:   Myers, Asuaje or Pirela to backfill, balancing "45" grade prospect  = 21+ in Pads system (#30 Owen Miller?)

I would personally definitely prefer the Segura/Leake for Myers trade over this.  For this trade to fully "work" for Pads, think they have to pull a trade for Frontline starter.  Gain Salary flexibility (take on bad contract?) & prospect capital to work with.

Quote from fenn68 on November 28, 2018, 11:37 am

How about I add some unrealistic complexity to this by proffering a 3 way deal considering:

a. Atlanta clearly wants to win now ... has a need for a corner OF and RP ... and importantly reported $20-30 MM to spend in 2019 to fill those needs (key Donaldson's $23MM comes off the books in 2020)

b. Seattle wants to shed some burdensome contracts and get some near ML ready players to create a short term rebuild (key Segura / Leake have no trade deals and apparently are in play)

c. San Diego wants INF / SP upgrades and has maybe as much as $20-30MM to deploy in 2019 (key point is that Myers is only $3MM in 2019 then jumps to $20MM)

So, Atlanta gets Myers (and his entire contract) but since that is only $3MM in 2019 they have most of their money still available to sign Kimbrell (or another top end RP) ... maybe two. in 2020 Donaldson departs (-$23MM) but Myers escalates (+$17MM) still lowering Atlanta's payroll by $6MM. They contend and are in good shape.

SD gets Segura / Leake (and their entire contracts) which adds $30MM to 2019 payroll but that fits. (note: a lot of "dead money" comes off the books in 2020 so then more room to add).

Seattle' key benefit is shedding two no trade contracts ($30MM in 2019 and overall $90MMish) which should allow them to take prospects in return that are not "premium" ... and both Atlanta and SD have a bunch of quality outside the MLB top 100 (in each's #8-15 range. Maybe 1 or 2 from each team.

That COULD make each team happy and fit their bigger picture needs.

Quote from Brian Connelly on November 28, 2018, 1:13 pm

Actually, FENN you might be on to something involving Seattle; there is definitely a 3-way win involving all 3 teams, but seems like the most likely scenario might be:

• Myers (& Asuaje) to Atlanta fills their biggest need
• Segura (& Leake) + 10 MM in 2019 from M's + top 100 prospect from Braves to Padres = guy they really want for SS/INF as an ongoing starter, not super utility plus additional compensation for...
• Carmago + a lesser prospect from Braves + Franmil Reyes + a lesser prospect from us to Seattle = low cost  "replace" Segura + Nelson Cruz AND 2 prospects for weak Farm AND reduce payroll 15 MM in 2019; 75 MM total through 2022.

In other words, we give Myers + Reyes + Asuaje + a lesser prospect to get:  Segura, Leake, 10 MM (think +SP salary), and a top 100 prospect.

I think Seattle might want more than what you suggest (definitely more than Asuaje + #30 prospect 🙂  from us since not getting Myers.   The guy that would be a perfect fit for Seattle is Franmil Reyes.... to try to fill the impossibly large shoes of Nelson Cruz.  Before everyone freaks out:  1)  Mejia could play some LF vs LHP:  gets him & Cordero in lineup more.  2)  Increases Pirela's 2019 value to Pads, 3) 2020 Naylor a possibility in LF?   May ultimately have to "get" a LF though.  Reyes is easy to like, but I think SD would be selling high here:  his Defense is always going to be an issue.

Better from Pads POV in deal would be Josh Naylor.... maybe with less $ from M's?

Assuming Pads have to pay Myers' 8.5 MM sign bonus installment, 2019 payroll for Pads would increase 22MM without any $ from M's.   But 2020 - 2022 is almost an exact wash trading 3 years of Myers for 3 of Segura + 1 of Leake (buyout in 2021).  If M's kicked in 10 MMin 2019, Pads payroll would sit around 90-91 MM after this deal.  Still room to add a frontline SP; but that trade path would be harder to accomplish less 2 corner OF's.

Quote from MrPadre19 on November 28, 2018, 1:42 pm

Unfortunately i think the more likely scenario is the Braves sign a corner OF(Brantley/Pollock) and use Camargo off the bench at

3b/SS/2B/LF until 2019 when he again takes over a full time IF spot....most likely SS with Riley at 3B and Swanson moving on.

However....they do also want a top of the rotation Starter and a Closer and say they are limited financially.

So just maybe they instead decide to sign the Starter(Corbin/Kuechel) and a Closer(Kimbrel) and trade for the Outfielder?

And as pointed out Myers small salary for 2019 may be a deciding factor.

Maybe an expanded deal involving Myers "and" Yates for Camargo/prospect/s?

Or maybe they prefer Renfroe or Reyes as they are much cheaper than Myers?

 

Quote from MrPadre19 on November 28, 2018, 1:43 pm

Quote from Brian Connelly on November 28, 2018, 1:13 pm

Actually, FENN you might be on to something involving Seattle; there is definitely a 3-way win involving all 3 teams, but seems like the most likely scenario might be:

• Myers (& Asuaje) to Atlanta fills their biggest need
• Segura (& Leake) + 10 MM in 2019 from M's + top 100 prospect from Braves to Padres = guy they really want for SS/INF as an ongoing starter, not super utility plus additional compensation for...
• Carmago + a lesser prospect from Braves + Franmil Reyes + a lesser prospect from us to Seattle = low cost  "replace" Segura + Nelson Cruz AND 2 prospects for weak Farm AND reduce payroll 15 MM in 2019; 75 MM total through 2022.

In other words, we give Myers + Reyes + Asuaje + a lesser prospect to get:  Segura, Leake, 10 MM (think +SP salary), and a top 100 prospect.

I think Seattle might want more than what you suggest (definitely more than Asuaje + #30 prospect   from us since not getting Myers.   The guy that would be a perfect fit for Seattle is Franmil Reyes.... to try to fill the impossibly large shoes of Nelson Cruz.  Before everyone freaks out:  1)  Mejia could play some LF vs LHP:  gets him & Cordero in lineup more.  2)  Increases Pirela's 2019 value to Pads, 3) 2020 Naylor a possibility in LF?   May ultimately have to "get" a LF though.  Reyes is easy to like, but I think SD would be selling high here:  his Defense is always going to be an issue.

Better from Pads POV in deal would be Josh Naylor.... maybe with less $ from M's?

Assuming Pads have to pay Myers' 8.5 MM sign bonus installment, 2019 payroll for Pads would increase 22MM without any $ from M's.   But 2020 - 2022 is almost an exact wash trading 3 years of Myers for 3 of Segura + 1 of Leake (buyout in 2021).  If M's kicked in 10 MMin 2019, Pads payroll would sit around 90-91 MM after this deal.  Still room to add a frontline SP; but that trade path would be harder to accomplish less 2 corner OF's.

Franchy could play LF.

 

Quote from fenn68 on November 28, 2018, 2:49 pm

I like the prospect status of Cordero BUT I don't think I am ready to rely on him as a starter without a little more ML success and IF they dealt two of Myers - Renfroe - Reyes he would be forced into that role with no back-up option or a coming prospect for a couple of years (maybe then Reed or Olivares) ... not the formula if Fowler wants to compete by 2020.

In his 253 ML PA he has a 234/295/433 slash line with a whopping 39% K-rate and a dWAR of -4.9. Plus has shown little ability to  hit LHP.

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Quote from fenn68 on November 28, 2018, 2:57 pm

Somewhat in the same vein as the Atlanta scenario ... both Philadelphia (needing more offense and a ton of money to deploy), Houston (seeking a DH/1B), and Cleveland (needing an OF ... and a lot of money coming off the books next winter) could also take Myers $3MM in 2019 and the rest of his contract while giving little in return.

Padres in turn with a lower payroll going forward could take Segura / Leake and their contract for just decent prospects.

Prediction: Myers remains a Padre in LF and Renfroe is the one dealt for ????? ....... Segura does not come to SD.