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#1031 · March 1, 2019, 11:43 am
Quote from Jeremy Hill on March 1, 2019, 11:20 amLooks like we signed Adam Warren.
The Padres have inked reliever Adam Warren, per a club announcement. It’s a one-year deal with a club option. Warren, a client of Full Circle Sports Management, is promised $2.5MM on the contract, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network (Twitter links). That includes a $2MM salary for 2019 and a $500K buyout on a $2.5MM option.
Southpaw Jose Castillo was placed on the 60-day injured list to create roster space. He is dealing with a flexor strain that is obviously considered a fairly significant malady.
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Good upside signing but more than worrisome in the 60 day DL for Castillo ... might change a bit of the LHRP mix going into the season .... they did sign Loup, Wieck is back from his cancer issue, Erlin is better in the pen than starting, Strahm could be back in the pen, and they have a few non-roster veteran MiLers in camp. However, Castillo showed the stuff to be significantly better than that grouping ... except maybe Strahm.
#1032 · March 1, 2019, 11:59 am
60 day DL? Well, that seals it for all intents and purposes, Castillo to have TJS.
#1033 · March 1, 2019, 12:07 pm
Now that Richards, Lamet, and Castillo have move to the 60 day DL to accommodate the recent signings ... it is going to be more "interesting" to see who gets DFA when some of the non-roster players earn their spots on the roster (e.g. Tatis, L.Allen) or they have another FA signing. Still some time before that is an issue ... but coming soon.
#1034 · March 3, 2019, 10:05 am
Here's what I think is a realistically cautious look at Joey Lucchesi from Mike Gianella at BP ...
It didn’t seem like Lucchesi was a candidate to make San Diego’s rotation entering 2018 but he proved himself in Spring Training and then injuries broke down the door. I didn’t think much of the Padres southpaw in any format, but Lucchesi proved me and the other doubting Thomases wrong in the early going, putting up a 3.34 ERA with 69 very nice strikeouts in 67 1/3 innings before the All-Star break. It didn’t seem like Lucchesi’s one-pitch, deception-oriented approach would play in the majors, but it did. Egg on my face. How do you like them apples…idiot? The problem was that while Lucchesi’s unorthodox delivery helped his stuff play up the first time through the league, it didn’t work so well the second time around. Lucchesi posted a 4.88 ERA after the All-Star break, looking particularly vulnerable against NL West opponents who had seen him repeatedly.
The high strikeout rate has more than a few tabbing Lucchesi as a great value, noting he’s potentially an elite arm at a non-elite price, but this kind of analysis along with his lofty PECOTA projection ignore the history behind scouting profiles like Lucchesi’s. A deception-oriented, off-speed repertoire is difficult to succeed with long-term, particularly in an era where many pitchers routinely dial it up to the mid-90s and/or have a plus-plus slider to rely on when the fastball isn’t working. Pitching in Petco will mitigate the damage but Lucchesi’s high home run rate tells the story when hitters aren’t fooled by his admittedly entertaining antics on the mound. I like Lucchesi long-term as a reliever. There’s value in that profile, but not so much in fantasy.
-Mike Gianella
#1035 · March 4, 2019, 10:01 am
Getting closer to the point the Padres need to make the call on corner OF. The theme appears to with offense since concern about the SP giving up runs and, in some minds, the added defense in the OF does not outweigh the value of the better offense. (I guess why they are thinking of Myers ... at points .. in CF to potentially get both Renfroe and Reyes in the line-up against LHP). I will discount that idea and only consider the corner OF options.
Myers (28) ... 2655 PA .... 328 OBP ... 439 SLG ... 109 wRC+ .... +3.7 baserunning (2017-18)
Renfroe (27) ... 956 PA ... 296 OBP ... 497 SLG ... 108 wRC+ .... -1.1 baserunning
Reyes (23) ... 285 PA ...... 340 OBP ... 498 SLG ... 129 wRC+ .... -0.3 baserunning
Cordero (24)... 253 PA ... 295 OBP .... 433 SLG ... 95 wRC+ .... +2.0 baserunning
Recognizing the small sample sizes for Reyes / Cordero but youth having potential to improve ... offensively may lean to a Myers (LF) - Reyes (RF) alignment, Cordero to the minors ... making Renfroe the man on the bubble.
Have to consider defense (none have a long run of being all that good). Myers however in his limited time in LF last season (304 innings) did have a +2.8 dWAR (+5 DRS) which SHOULD lock him into a LF slot. (hopefully we can forget his time in CF/RF ... which was not good). Move to the RF options and Renfroe is a bit of an oddity ... depending on the stat: -14.1 dWAR (that is bad) but +3 DRS (that is good). Reyes is maybe a worse. (note: not a big fan of defensive stats except for broad stroke evaluation). Cordero is also a negative dWar OF.
Given the bias to adding offense, I would still go Myers but maybe alternate Reyes - Renfroe until we see if Reyes' offense is sustainable (or they get a good trade for Renfroe). Cordero is still a AAA option to start the season. Not really a fan of Reyes to AAA given the potential he showed in 2018 at the ML level.
We will see in less than 4 weeks.
#1036 · March 20, 2019, 6:40 pm
Rumors that the Braves may move on from Adam Duvall.
May be in the market for an outfielder still.
Maybe trade them Renfroe for a couple of their many Starting prospects?
Someone like Gohara or Bryse Wilson?
#1037 · March 20, 2019, 10:32 pm
As of today, Fangraphs is projecting Padres' WAR at 36!
https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=ALL&teamid=29
... which is 18th out of 30. The 15th/16th teams are about 37 ... so ... if they should win 81 ... shouldn't this be a projection for Padres to win 80?
Which seems high to me ... given the state of our SP ... but ... hey ... maybe!
Also ... an idea came to me ... maybe Gio gets off to a slow/rough start for Yankees (due to being out of normal spring training prep routine) and some of their injured pitchers come back and they cut him loose ... then Padres pounce on him, 'cause by that time it will be clear that they need someone like him to cover innings!
#1038 · March 21, 2019, 7:11 am
Quote from David Nevin on March 20, 2019, 6:40 pmRumors that the Braves may move on from Adam Duvall.
May be in the market for an outfielder still.
Maybe trade them Renfroe for a couple of their many Starting prospects?
Someone like Gohara or Bryse Wilson?
That would work for me although probably the prospects would likely be slightly lower ranked such as Wentz (LHP) or Mueller (LHP) ... but still very good prospects. Atlanta keeps its higher ranked (and ML ready) arms for immediate use in a pennant race while SD gets a non-roster (for the next two years) to bolster its wave of arms available in maybe 2021-22 ... either on the roster or for a trade (everyone wants good pitching).
#1039 · March 21, 2019, 7:29 am
Quote from LynchMob on March 20, 2019, 10:32 pmAs of today, Fangraphs is projecting Padres' WAR at 36!
https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=ALL&teamid=29
... which is 18th out of 30. The 15th/16th teams are about 37 ... so ... if they should win 81 ... shouldn't this be a projection for Padres to win 80?
Which seems high to me ... given the state of our SP ... but ... hey ... maybe!
Also ... an idea came to me ... maybe Gio gets off to a slow/rough start for Yankees (due to being out of normal spring training prep routine) and some of their injured pitchers come back and they cut him loose ... then Padres pounce on him, 'cause by that time it will be clear that they need someone like him to cover innings!
Not sure the logic various folks use but I think spots in Vegas has the Padres at an over / under of around 78 wins ... which is just about what PECOTA has (never believe PECOTA). These were pre-Machado.
Pure guessing but a part may be their low opinion of SF and AZ resulting in less wins vs. SD who gets more wins ... guess maybe their view of COLO sustaining its 2018 success is questioned. Basically SD may not be significantly better but the others are significantly worse ... SD gets more wins. Then if they have an "improvement" from the "prospects" (Reyes, Tatis, et. al) maybe another couple of win improvement.
Sure SP is not compelling but neither was the SP in 2018 so probably not a big leap to have SP "less bad" and therefore generate a couple more wins.
Put all that together ... 78 wins makes sense and IF some of those high potential prospects arrive and deliver (sometimes prospects actually do that) ... an 81 win season is not fantasy. Depending on how the rest of the NL plays out .. we might see some "add" action at the trade deadline in pursuit of that 5th Wild Card slot. What to watch out for is the teams in the NL East and NL Central to be balance where teams beating each other sending them to a lot of .500 records ... then may a game or two more in wins can secure that Wild Card.
So, not so much about the Padres being good ... but the competition being either bad or balanced. The is a chance.
#1040 · March 21, 2019, 1:53 pm
So it's becoming obvious that Kuechel is waiting for a team to have an injury and step up and give him whatever it is
he's asking and interested teams are waiting for him to come to the time he's willing to take what they've offered.
I'm guessing we are on that second list and the longer it goes that no one steps "up" the better the likelihood
that something happens.
What do you guys think the difference is between what he's asking and what he's being offered?
Asking 4/75 offered 3/45?.....or something like that?
When 30 year old Set up guys are getting nearly $9 mil a season I'm thinking Kuechel believes he's worth $20 mil per.