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Offseason predictions/Guesses

Quote from TatisJr on November 17, 2019, 4:06 pm

I’d offer 2 years/28 mill to Ryu. If he doesn’t like it, offer that deal to Hamels. If Hamels doesn’t like it, offer it to Keuchel. If none of them bite, no big deal. I’d just hate to go more than 2/28 with the young pitching in place and on the horizon.

MLBTR estimates:  Ryu 3/54 (17 AAV), Keuchel 3/39 (13), Hamels 2/30 (15).

Tatis, your comment shows why IMO Pads push as far up the quality spectrum as possible:  Because the "cost of admission" for ANY decent SP is about 8-10-12 MM / yr.... you 're paying that to get low 4's ERA, 1.35 WHIP, etc.  It's like going to the movies:  If you decide to buy popcorn or soda; you're getting taken to the cleaners for the Small... you might as well go Large (OK, cost differential from Hamels to Stras a little more than movie popcorn, but conceptually...)

look at this comment from MLBTR re: Hamels  "....Though Hamels’ days as a 210-inning workhorse are probably long gone, he’s a solid addition if he can provide 300 innings over the life of a two-year deal."   That wouldn't even meet our primary requirement of FA leading the team in IP...  I get Ryu a massive risk to also not lead team in IP, but you've got these 3 ranked in the right order.  The upside of the +2-4 MM the first 2 yrs & 3rd yr of the deal to me is worth it.  Esp subtracting him from LAD.

Quote from David Nevin on November 17, 2019, 9:27 am

The more I think about our pitching “quest” I’m starting to think Ryu a distinct possibility.

I really don’t think we need to make any big moves as far as the rotation is concerned.

I like our current 1-8 going forward.......but,it sure looks like we are gonna do something.

I think Hamels and Ryu make the most sense because they will be 2-3 year deals at mid cost levels due to age/injury concerns.

I just don’t think we’re going to sign a guy to a 5-6 year deal that someone like Wheeler will take.

 

Rumor has it Padres are in serious negotiations with Ryu.

Possible 3-4 year deal.

Quote from David Nevin on November 24, 2019, 11:26 am
Quote from David Nevin on November 17, 2019, 9:27 am

The more I think about our pitching “quest” I’m starting to think Ryu a distinct possibility.

I really don’t think we need to make any big moves as far as the rotation is concerned.

I like our current 1-8 going forward.......but,it sure looks like we are gonna do something.

I think Hamels and Ryu make the most sense because they will be 2-3 year deals at mid cost levels due to age/injury concerns.

I just don’t think we’re going to sign a guy to a 5-6 year deal that someone like Wheeler will take.

 

Rumor has it Padres are in serious negotiations with Ryu.

Possible 3-4 year deal.

Since the Padres seem intent on adding a TOR pitcher ... Ryu on a 3-4 year deal maybe be the best gamble (especially since he does not have a Comp Pick penalty linked).

Could the Padres move to then add the recently posted Korean LHP Kwang-hyun Kim (some do like his upside)? IF they added both ... opens the door to market both Lucchesi and Lauer in deals to bolster the offense. Everyone needs pitching.

You are right Brian, I was dreaming with my 2/28. No way he’d go for that coming off the season he just had. I really enjoy watching Ryu and it would be nice to grab him away from the Dodgers. I just don’t want to be paying him big money on years 3 and 4 considering his age and injury history.

Ryu would be a solid signing.

Just maybe pay bigger money up front, with decreasing numbers over the term?

Ryu 1 A.... Gray 1 B

How is that for 1 2 punch added SP for Padres..

I think of we sign Ryu AJP would be more motivated to use the Quantrill/Morejon/Lauer/Bolanos Quartet to go get an OF a C a 2B and\or another SP

Quote from Henry Silvestre on November 24, 2019, 12:20 pm

I think of we sign Ryu AJP would be more motivated to use the Quantrill/Morejon/Lauer/Bolanos Quartet to go get an OF a C a 2B and\or another SP

Absolutely agree Henry! I think those four plus Joey. I hope Joey and Cal are kept around, but I know other teams will be heavily interested is all of those young arms.

I personally think that Quantrill and Morejon are on another level than the other 3 as both pitchers and trade pieces. They have far more promise.

I would love to see Ryu with the Padres next season. He is one of the few guys that we can afford who has the ability to be a true ace. Yes he is a risk. Most pitchers are. He has had consistently excellent results when he actually pitches, so the only real risk is his health. I am sure the Padres staff will go over every medical test he has ever had and probably put him through many more before they sign him. If they do. I love the fact that he will max out at 4 years at most so there should be room for Gore and Patino in the future. After Myers and Hosmer, I don't want to see any more long term high price contracts for free agents. If we are going to give them out, let's save that money for guys that we have produced ourselves like Tatis, Paddack, Gore, Patino and Urias.

I can see Ryu as being more of a bridge type of ace.

If they sign Ryu and free up some arms for trade ... the buyers’ view of the options is the key.

I would expect if the buyer is a contender (or near contender) they may be more biased toward an arm that just plugs into the ML line-up .... lean toward Lucchesi, Lauer, maybe Quantrill (all are low cost and have control).

If it is a non-contender, maybe Patino, Lawson, Morejon have more appeal.

Still Preller has to think the trade target is worth whomever the seller is targeting and if not, do some negotiation for a less valuable arm (maybe supported by a second and/or a third piece).