Quote from JasonE135 on December 16, 2023, 4:57 pm

I think it is pretty safe to say that the Padres aren't building their team for a World Series run in 2024. They still have 2 offensive stars and 1 very good offensive player locked in for the next 10 years. What they don't have is pitching. You can't make a WS run without pitching.

The Padres have a lot of pitching prospects. They are going to have to wait for a few of Brito, Vasquez, Snelling, Lesko, Thorpe, Mazur, Iriarte, Lizarraga and Bergert to work out before they can legitimately make a run. What they can't do is trade these future cheap pitchers for expensive present needs. They don't need to empty their minors to pick up short term guys like Arozarena or Luzardo. This isn't the year.

The Padres could conceivably get another 2-4 starters and a few relievers out of those previously mentioned pitching prospects within 2-3 years. Even a TOR or 2. That could be an excellent pitching staff. Along with Tatis, Machado, Bogaerts and possibly Merrill as offensive stars and guys like Marsee and Pauley as average to above players? THAT is the team I think we are building towards now. Reasonably affordable and excellent, with depth.

I'm pretty sure that the Lux Tax threshold is our new maximum payroll. I'm okay with that. Preller does a good job with his picks and he needs them all, along with all of his intl. signing $. If you can't build a World Series team with $237 million, you shouldn't be a GM.

 

Quote from Randy Manese on December 16, 2023, 6:15 pm

JasonE135 I agree with everything you said in your last post except that Luzardo is a short term guy - he is under control for this year plus the next 2 and he just turned 26 years of age.  He is close to being a top of the rotation starter on any team and while I would not empty my minor league system of prospects for him, I would trade Kim and a couple of our higher end (not the highest end) prospects to get him.  We could offer Zavala or Pauley and one of Thorpe, Brito or Vazquez besides Kim.  Luzardo is special and could be a force in our rotation as we bring up Snelling, Lesko and others.  Only expected to get 6M in arbitration so would save Padres another 2 million if this trade were to happen.  Alternately, I would settle for Braxton Garrett, who could almost be as good and would be under control much longer (which is why Luzardo might be moved before Garrett).

Quote from JasonE135 on December 16, 2023, 7:58 pm

Quote from Randy Manese on December 16, 2023, 6:15 pm

JasonE135 I agree with everything you said in your last post except that Luzardo is a short term guy - he is under control for this year plus the next 2 and he just turned 26 years of age.  He is close to being a top of the rotation starter on any team and while I would not empty my minor league system of prospects for him, I would trade Kim and a couple of our higher end (not the highest end) prospects to get him.  We could offer Zavala or Pauley and one of Thorpe, Brito or Vazquez besides Kim.  Luzardo is special and could be a force in our rotation as we bring up Snelling, Lesko and others.  Only expected to get 6M in arbitration so would save Padres another 2 million if this trade were to happen.  Alternately, I would settle for Braxton Garrett, who could almost be as good and would be under control much longer (which is why Luzardo might be moved before Garrett).

According to BTV, the Padres would have to add Snelling or Lesko to that deal. I wouldn't do that. One of Luzardo or Garrett does not get the Pads to a WS this year. They have too many holes. Zavala, Thorpe, Snelling and a prospect to 2 for Kim can fill several holes while Luzardo only fills 1.

 

Quote from fenn68 on December 16, 2023, 8:11 pm

Now I am sticking with the Padres staying under the tax threshold … by maybe $5MM to cover mid-seasons adds due to injury, etc. That puts about $26MM in play this winter for adds. As it stands the Padres need to add four position players (3 starters) … so can’t see trading any position player for a pitcher and creating a need for five position players. Position player for a different position player maybe … pitchers for a position player sure … but for the money on the table going to be really really difficult to get any quality FA to sign.

Currently:

C: Campusano; Higashioka

INF: Machado, Kim; Bogaerts; Cronenworth (L) … Batten (bench); TBD (bench / DH)

OF: Tatis; TBD; TBD … Azocar (bench); TBD (bench / DH)

2 OF and a DH/9th bat missing from the starting line-up … plus only 1 LHH. A real problem that needs money to address unless you believe in Marsee, Merrill, and/or Pauley taking a starters position. 4 FA would (if equal) would price out $6-7MM per … that will not get much quality … so more likely a more costly option or two boosted by a prospect or lower end FA.

Although would like to add some upper end quality to the pitching (don’t really care to add any more to the lower end) … can’t see doing that without making the filling out the position player roster all the more difficult (and worse). At least the pitching staff has bodies … no so much with position players.

For me, figure out the 13 position players and the 9 man starting line up first then worry about the pitching.

Quote from JasonE135 on December 16, 2023, 10:42 pm

Quote from fenn68 on December 16, 2023, 8:11 pm

Now I am sticking with the Padres staying under the tax threshold … by maybe $5MM to cover mid-seasons adds due to injury, etc. That puts about $26MM in play this winter for adds. As it stands the Padres need to add four position players (3 starters) … so can’t see trading any position player for a pitcher and creating a need for five position players. Position player for a different position player maybe … pitchers for a position player sure … but for the money on the table going to be really really difficult to get any quality FA to sign.

Currently:

C: Campusano; Higashioka

INF: Machado, Kim; Bogaerts; Cronenworth (L) … Batten (bench); TBD (bench / DH)

OF: Tatis; TBD; TBD … Azocar (bench); TBD (bench / DH)

2 OF and a DH/9th bat missing from the starting line-up … plus only 1 LHH. A real problem that needs money to address unless you believe in Marsee, Merrill, and/or Pauley taking a starters position. 4 FA would (if equal) would price out $6-7MM per … that will not get much quality … so more likely a more costly option or two boosted by a prospect or lower end FA.

Although would like to add some upper end quality to the pitching (don’t really care to add any more to the lower end) … can’t see doing that without making the filling out the position player roster all the more difficult (and worse). At least the pitching staff has bodies … no so much with position players.

For me, figure out the 13 position players and the 9 man starting line up first then worry about the pitching.

I don't see the Padres spending $6-$7 million per year on backups. I can see Marsee, Pauley and Merrill filling the 2 backup positions and DH, with only the DH being a starter. That leaves roughly $9 million per for 2-OF and 1 more starter, reliever or DH.

Quote from Randy Manese on December 16, 2023, 11:54 pm

If the Marlins were thinking about Pasquantino for Luzardo then I would argue that Kim, as a Gold Glove middle infielder, has more value to them.  Problem is he is a free agent after this season, so one of the gambles they have to make is whether they think they can extend him since he might get something like 125M or more over 7 years in free agency.

The other aspect of a trade with the Marlins is they have one of the worst farm systems in the majors, so giving up some of our second tier players while they still have prospect value is something Miami might be interested in - it's basically what we did to get Darvish and Snell.  These would not be the top end prospects, like Snelling or Lesko, but players who may or may not develop.  For Darvish we gave up to 2 promising shortstops and 2 young OF's - only 1 (Owen Caissie) has emerged as a legitimate prospect for the Cubs and he still is a couple of years away.  For Snell, we gave up 2 catchers and 2 pitchers and only one, Wilcox, is still in the Tampa Bay system and was a Rule 5 eligible this  year.  So out of 8 prospects traded, only 1 still has value when compared to what we got out of Darvish and Snell since we acquired them.

I think the trade is possible but unlikely, especially if they insist on Snelling or Lesko or Merrill or Salas.  Always fun to speculate!

Quote from sportwarrior on December 17, 2023, 12:03 am

I see all of you talking very rationally, but no one is talking about how absolutely Preller and/or ownership has screwed up this team for 2024 and possibly well beyond. The actions and messaging from the FO this offseason have been far worse than I ever imagined. We're entering a period of severe austerity after spending our asses off on long term contracts that were completely incompatible with short term payroll "surges."

Bottom line is we are absolutely screwed unless we draw straight aces with our top prospects. In other words, pretty much exactly in the same spot we were under John Moores.

Honestly, Preller should just be fired. I'm over it.

Quote from fenn68 on December 17, 2023, 3:05 am

Time to make a case for Marsee being the regular CF (with Azocar as the backup). Clearly have to start with the Padres view of what Marsee can produce in CF … but that standard may be a lot lower than we think (want).

Looking at all the needs and it appears Marsee is the best nearly ready position player prospect … and of course is at league minimum and would free up money for a better add in the other positions … so looking at 2023

Can he be as good as (or better) than Grisham? Well for Qualified CF Grisham ranked: 13th in WAR; 12th in wRC+ (91); and 11th in dWAR (0.1) and only 16 qualified. Offense was 198/315/352 and just maybe that gold glove reputation is the past not the present.

Drop the standard to 300 PA (about 1/2 season) and get a bit over 40 players and Grisham is only 30th in wRC+. Then start to pick-up the FA who did not play enough to qualify:

Kiermaier 22nd in wRC+ at 104

Taylor 26th at 96

Bader 40th at 70

As of now the projection is those three will get $8-12MM as FA. Money that may be better deployed on other holes with “better” alternatives.

Bottom line is that if the Padres believe Marsee can hit maybe .230 and decent defense … he would still be an upgrade from Grisham and likely an average ML CF … at league minimum.

Actually can’t justify the money on any of the alternatives.

Quote from WindsorUK on December 17, 2023, 9:46 am

Where are Zach Davies and Eric Lauer?

Both have had some success and neither would be expensive.