Quote from JasonE135 on December 17, 2023, 11:04 am

Quote from fenn68 on December 17, 2023, 3:05 am

Time to make a case for Marsee being the regular CF (with Azocar as the backup). Clearly have to start with the Padres view of what Marsee can produce in CF … but that standard may be a lot lower than we think (want).

Looking at all the needs and it appears Marsee is the best nearly ready position player prospect … and of course is at league minimum and would free up money for a better add in the other positions … so looking at 2023

Can he be as good as (or better) than Grisham? Well for Qualified CF Grisham ranked: 13th in WAR; 12th in wRC+ (91); and 11th in dWAR (0.1) and only 16 qualified. Offense was 198/315/352 and just maybe that gold glove reputation is the past not the present.

Drop the standard to 300 PA (about 1/2 season) and get a bit over 40 players and Grisham is only 30th in wRC+. Then start to pick-up the FA who did not play enough to qualify:

Kiermaier 22nd in wRC+ at 104

Taylor 26th at 96

Bader 40th at 70

As of now the projection is those three will get $8-12MM as FA. Money that may be better deployed on other holes with “better” alternatives.

Bottom line is that if the Padres believe Marsee can hit maybe .230 and decent defense … he would still be an upgrade from Grisham and likely an average ML CF … at league minimum.

Actually can’t justify the money on any of the alternatives.

Personally I would LOVE IT if the Padres could get Kevin Kiermaier for $8-$12 million. He gives league average offense with gold glove defense. He had 3.9 WAR last year in only 370-AB. $8-$12 mil would be incredibly cheap for that kind of production.

I really like Marsee, but his average speed in CF scares me. I would put Marsee in LF and Merrill at 3B to start the season, then let whichever proves themself better gets to keep the LF job this year.

Quote from JasonE135 on December 17, 2023, 11:11 am

Quote from Randy Manese on December 17, 2023, 10:21 am

Davies had some serious personal issues and recently, the Padres typically don't take on players with known personal issues - these happened after he left the Padres.  Lauer had what was reported as a right shoulder impingement which greatly affected his pitching even though he is a LHP.  He was out for months, did a minor league rehab, was hit hard when activated and then put on IL for the rest of the year.  Must be a concern in the industry regarding his health so, if healthy, he might do a one year "show them" contract at a lower salary before hitting free agency again.  If healthy, could be on the Padres' radar.  A big IF, but guessing he's still looking for something around 4-5M.

I figure our Padres are going to bring in a few to several low cost reclamation project pitchers this year, just like in years past. If either Davies or Lauer comes cheap enough and shows enough of a possibility of recovery I can easily see them picked up.

Quote from MrPadre19 on December 17, 2023, 1:40 pm

Quote from sportwarrior on December 17, 2023, 12:03 am

I see all of you talking very rationally, but no one is talking about how absolutely Preller and/or ownership has screwed up this team for 2024 and possibly well beyond. The actions and messaging from the FO this offseason have been far worse than I ever imagined. We're entering a period of severe austerity after spending our asses off on long term contracts that were completely incompatible with short term payroll "surges."

Bottom line is we are absolutely screwed unless we draw straight aces with our top prospects. In other words, pretty much exactly in the same spot we were under John Moores.

Honestly, Preller should just be fired. I'm over it.

Many of us feel the exact opposite.

We’ve got 5-6 good young SP prospects and I expect several of them to be in our rotation for years to come.

Farm system will be solidly top 5 after we sign DeVries.

Infield is set for years…..whether we extend Kim or go with Merrill.

Tatis/Marsee/Zavala plus who we add may be good.

If it was up to me I’d trade Merrill for Arozarena and extend Kim and roll on.

 

Quote from dusty on December 17, 2023, 9:37 pm

Quote from MrPadre19 on December 17, 2023, 1:40 pm

Quote from sportwarrior on December 17, 2023, 12:03 am

I see all of you talking very rationally, but no one is talking about how absolutely Preller and/or ownership has screwed up this team for 2024 and possibly well beyond. The actions and messaging from the FO this offseason have been far worse than I ever imagined. We're entering a period of severe austerity after spending our asses off on long term contracts that were completely incompatible with short term payroll "surges."

Bottom line is we are absolutely screwed unless we draw straight aces with our top prospects. In other words, pretty much exactly in the same spot we were under John Moores.

Honestly, Preller should just be fired. I'm over it.

Many of us feel the exact opposite.

We’ve got 5-6 good young SP prospects and I expect several of them to be in our rotation for years to come.

Farm system will be solidly top 5 after we sign DeVries.

Infield is set for years…..whether we extend Kim or go with Merrill.

Tatis/Marsee/Zavala plus who we add may be good.

If it was up to me I’d trade Merrill for Arozarena and extend Kim and roll on.

 

I’m in the hard disagree group as well. Top 5 farm system with a solid core to keep building around. If not for getting hit in the wrist early in the season, Boegarts was on his way to an mvp type season. People forget how many games we won because of his bat at the beginning of the season (I still don’t agree with the move to sign him) and as long as he strengthens his wrist this offseason he should be back and ready to hit again.

I think Preller just needs to make smart additions whether it be via trade or signings or both. Honestly sign Bauer. It may be unpopular but he’ll cost only 4-5 mil and is the type of arm we need and can be our number 1 or 2 for a really low cost. He is itching for one more chance. Then either trade for Burnes or use Avila as the 5.

 

The remaining additions to make are Kiermaer/Bader, Belt, Matsui/Rodriguez and Profar.

Would love Burnes, just would have to pivot away from one of Kermaier or Belt and Matsui/Rodriguez unless we deal Crone or Suarez

Starting 9

Camp

Belt

Crone

Boegarts/Kim

Kim/Manny

Tatis

Kermaier/Bader

Marsee

Manny/Boegarts

 

Bench

Higashioka

Profar

Marcano

Azocar

Rosario

 

Rotation

Musgrove

Bauer

Darvish

King

Avila

 

Bullpen

Suarez

De Los Santos

Cosgroge

Morejon

Wilson

Kolek/Brito/Jacob/Gillaspie/Estrada/Vazquez/Matsui/Rodriguez

Kolek/Brito/Jacob/Gillaspie/Estrada/Vazquez/Matsui/Rodriguez

 

Salary added: Bauer (4.5)

Profar (3)

Kermaier/Bader (9)

Belt (7)

Rodriguez/Matsui (8)

 

Preller could entertain trading Suarez to get a prospect in return and sign both Matsui and Rodriguez. Time will tell. I think he keeps Suarez and brings in one bullpen arm. Kermaier I worry will cost more than 9 mil which if this is the case then pivot to Bader. KK’s defense is still legit even after his hip surgery. I like Belt at first base. Figure maybe he makes 1-2 mil less than last season but could get roughly the same contract as last year. If he can put up similar numbers then that would certainly help improve the offense at that position and move crone back to second. Profar just for some reason helps the team win. He is contagious and I think he comes back at about 3-4 mil.

im always of the opinion that a championship team needs a rookie of the year candidate. I think this season Marsee needs to be that guy unless an arm like Iriarte or Snelling really comes out of nowhere and pitches their tail off.

also, my issue is the lack of pop off the bench. I could see the possibility of bringing back Voit or Franmil as a big bat off the bench too

Quote from Randy Manese on December 17, 2023, 10:12 pm

A number of you are thinking Marsee can be a regular in the 2024 OF.  As long as the expectations are more "better than Grisham" than "the next Corbin Carroll", I think he has a good chance.  Marsee's transformation to an increased power/SA profile came quite suddenly but once he got the stroke down, he maintained it well even through the AFL.  He doesn't have superior bat speed, so the hope is that his Fly Ball tendencies don't result in routine outs or pop ups but become more line drives into the gaps.  Marsee should continue his good OBP but expect more K's with advanced pitching.  Defense won't be Kiermaeir-esque but good enough to pass on a 9-12M contract.

I've reported this before but one thing Marsee has in his background is his leadership on winning teams.  He was the captain of his small high school team that made the regional playoffs in Michigan; he was the captain of Central Michigan team that went to the college World Series.  He has tremendous work ethic and is well-liked and appreciated by his teammates.  With that mental make-up, I'd roll the dice on Marsee making the team but just keep the performance expectations realistic.  I'd still rather bring him up after a month or two after he dominates AA, but he's not one to back down from a challenge so let's see if he gets a chance early.

Quote from JasonE135 on December 17, 2023, 10:25 pm

Quote from Randy Manese on December 17, 2023, 10:12 pm

A number of you are thinking Marsee can be a regular in the 2024 OF.  As long as the expectations are more "better than Grisham" than "the next Corbin Carroll", I think he has a good chance.  Marsee's transformation to an increased power/SA profile came quite suddenly but once he got the stroke down, he maintained it well even through the AFL.  He doesn't have superior bat speed, so the hope is that his Fly Ball tendencies don't result in routine outs or pop ups but become more line drives into the gaps.  Marsee should continue his good OBP but expect more K's with advanced pitching.  Defense won't be Kiermaeir-esque but good enough to pass on a 9-12M contract.

I've reported this before but one thing Marsee has in his background is his leadership on winning teams.  He was the captain of his small high school team that made the regional playoffs in Michigan; he was the captain of Central Michigan team that went to the college World Series.  He has tremendous work ethic and is well-liked and appreciated by his teammates.  With that mental make-up, I'd roll the dice on Marsee making the team but just keep the performance expectations realistic.  I'd still rather bring him up after a month or two after he dominates AA, but he's not one to back down from a challenge so let's see if he gets a chance early.

I would expect a first year OPS+ of 80-95 out of Marsee. If he puts up a 100 OPS+ with average defense I think I will wet myself. He is just a body, a placeholder at this point in his development. Maybe in a few years we can expect more.

Quote from fenn68 on December 18, 2023, 2:38 am

Note that Gurriel just signed for $42MM/ years ($14 MM AAV) … about $2MM above projection.

Noted because we have seen pitchers so far coming off the board at above projections but not much action on the position players. Wondered if that over projection trend would cross over. Apparently … for now … yes. Also seeing Bellinger us seeking over $200MM now after seeing the Ohtani signing.

i would suspect agents see this trend and are not yet ready to back down on their demands. Given the payroll constraints and multiple needs … can see why Preller may be just waiting out the market to wait for break on their demands and get a lower cost deal. Some movement in January?

I know this does not sound appealing but he may just not be going for individual quality but quantity instead to insure all the blanks are filled in with at least decent players … avoid the black holes … have some depth … but still spend to his max limit. Pressure goes on the returning core players … and it should given their reputations.

Quote from fenn68 on December 18, 2023, 2:55 am

We have heard reports that the Padres have been trying to move Crnenworth … so far without success and don’t know if that is an overly agressive demand or just lack of buyers.

One motivation may be that Cronenworth carries a $11.4MM AAV toward the luxury tax (for long time) and if they play Kim - Bogaerts in the middle INF (with Merrill coming soon) … they may be thinking that $11.4MM could be used better than Cronenworth as a 1B which could be filled at similar production for less.

Enter Toronto who are seeking a 2B … LHH … so maybe a fit  and they do have money to spend and are willing considering they are legit contenders for the AL East / playoffs. Maybe have to wait on the resolution of their pursuit of Bellinger who would command a big chunk of their available money while providing a LHH.

If the best use of that $11.4MM AAV is with other priorities … the move may make sense and probably could happened IF Preller does not over reach on the return. Manoah?

Quote from WindsorUK on December 18, 2023, 7:30 am

Has Cooper signed anywhere? Not a big fan but if it keeps Cronenworth off of 1B( and moves him back to 2B), we could do worse?

Still think Bogaerts needs to move to the right side of the infield, and his bat( hopefully?) plays better at 1B than does Jake's.

And if Jake does get moved, infield would be Machado, Merrill, Kim, Bogaerts?