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OFFSEASON 2023-24
#941 · December 15, 2023, 8:31 pm
Thank you Atlanta for getting Carpenter off the rolls, even if it did cost us Kerr! Kerr was only borderline in making the roster anyway and there are a few Lefty options out in free agency - maybe Chapman (if not too expensive), Suter, Peralta - or could look at a guy like Padres minor leaguer Austin Krob who really just pitched for the first time professionally in 2023 as a SP, but might be suitable for the bullpen with a decent K/9 and good ground ball tendencies. Remember pitchers can come out of nowhere and I'd rather try Krob in relief than bring back Tim Hill or Pomeranz. In my opinion, Krob is already better than Kerr and is only 24 years of age.
#942 · December 16, 2023, 1:27 am
Isn’t there a LHRP (closer) coming over as a FA from Japan? Maybe he is in play for the Padres. Should boost Morejon’s chances of making the 26 man.
The deal of Carpenter … who had no value going forward … was inevitable … actually thought a release was the only route they had. So, always trying to insert more than what we see, interesting that Preller (with a wide open roster) had this deal worked before other moves.
Were Preller and ATL working on a bigger trade that fell through? Maybe an OF?
Are we near some FA signings (maybe trades) that will eat into the monies available at a level that will push the budget and Preller wanted (needed?) to ensure they stay under the luxury tax threshold plus buffer?
Position players on the 40 man are down to 12 … and that includes Sullivan (3rd C) and Marciano (injured INF who may start the season on the IL) … so all in is 1 under the need. Good news for the prospects (Marsee et al) with likely 4 position slots to fill. Maybe good for Profar … the $4MM saved from Carpenter should be enough to re-sign Profar. To the club Profar is > than Carpenter + Kerr.
#943 · December 16, 2023, 6:00 am
So it’s like we have just enough under the CBT for a certain LHSP,recent CY winner…..and two versatile LH former Padre outfielders.
Bring home Snell/Profar/Jankowski and we’re almost set.
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#944 · December 16, 2023, 7:18 am
Would Snell come back? I know he and Seidler had a good relationship but what did he think of his time in SD?
And 100% on board with both Profar( that MUST be a slam dunk???) and Travis( tons of speed, good CF defense, fan favourite).
Maybe sneak Sanchez in somehow????
#945 · December 16, 2023, 8:35 am
I would pass on re-signing Snell. Trying to avoid the halo affect from 2023.
First, with Boras as his agent and in a market wanting SP, he will get a 7 yr deal at near $30MM per year. With all the other big money / long term deals (most with 30+ year olds) ... not a good strategy.
Then using almost all of the money under the tax threshold on any one player still leaves giant holes in the roster ... not a good strategy.
Then can they rely on Snell at age 31 for the next 7 or so years?
Yes, he had two CY YOUNG seasons: 2018 (1.89 ERA / 180 innings) and 2023 (2.25 ERA / 180 innings) BUT in between not that elite #1 SP: 2019 (4.29 ERA / 107 innings); 2020 (COVID short ... 3.29 ERA / 50 innings); 2021 (4.20 ERA / 129 innings); and 2022 (3.38 ERA / 128 innings). Those four years in-between the Cy Young seasons are mid-rotation and highlighted by limited innings. Not worth the risk at 31 for the next 7 seasons at about $30MM/per.
Last season there were a lot of whispering about a team of players on their own agendas ... not making a cohesive team. Soto was on his own agenda for meetings, practices, and complained about where he hit in the order plus want Boras involved in meetings with Melvin (traded), Hader apparently wanted a lot of control as to when he was used (Padres not pursuing him as a FA), and Snell who is fine with being a 5 inning pitcher has puts pressure on the pen even if his stats are elite (Padres not pursuing him as a FA). Sure money is the main factor in all three but could a bit of the narrative have to removing from the team so "prima donnas" and add some "grinders", "team" players? Attitude change with the player changes?
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#946 · December 16, 2023, 8:43 am
“Just having some dollar flexibility,” Padres President of Baseball Operations A.J. Preller said. “Obviously, you’ve got to be able to spend on players. Hopefully in the next couple weeks, whether it’s trade or free agent, when the market kind of stabilizes, guys get to January and they’re looking for places to play, there might be some good buys out there.”
#947 · December 16, 2023, 10:29 am
So how does everyone feel about how Preller has done so far in the off-season? Fenn has mentioned several times how difficult a task it will be for Preller to assemble a playoff team given the circumstances he is under to trim the budget and fit it under the CBT. We could say that this is Preller's fault for those extensions in 2023, but could those extensions been more Seidler-driven than Preller-driven? We know Seidler was close with Machado and Darvish so those extensions should not have been all that surprising. Further, Seidler was also the ultimate Padres fan besides being the owner and I'm sure he had a soft spot for Cronenworth and wanted to reward him accordingly. So not knowing how much Preller was influenced by Seidler to get those extensions done (and Preller will never say that he was forced to do it), we do know that Seidler had to approve the deals and that is where we are today. I do think, however, that Bogaerts was probably a Preller push when he should have gone after more pitching.
Given the above, I'm okay with the decisions made so far by Preller, except for not picking up the club option on Wacha. Even that may have a caveat because Wacha was unable to get more on the open market than what the Padres would have paid him and they may have the best insight into the extent of Wacha's shoulder injury/damage than any other team. I would not have paid Martinez or Lugo the amounts/length of contract they got from the teams they signed with; I'm happy we dumped Carpenter's salary in the way we did; I think we got a fair return for the Yankees' rental of Soto for one year; and, so far, I'm very pleased we've not traded away any of our top prospects. Dodgers just pulled a trade with an extension contingency so maybe we can get the Marlins to do the same thing with Kim and get one of their top two LH pitchers? Kim, even though in his walk year, is at his highest trade value right now so I can see a deal coming.
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#948 · December 16, 2023, 10:44 am
Quote from Jeremy Hill on December 16, 2023, 8:43 am“Just having some dollar flexibility,” Padres President of Baseball Operations A.J. Preller said. “Obviously, you’ve got to be able to spend on players. Hopefully in the next couple weeks, whether it’s trade or free agent, when the market kind of stabilizes, guys get to January and they’re looking for places to play, there might be some good buys out there.”
That quote seems to support my recent thinking of a firm payroll cap for 2024 and with all the holes to fill and a lot of players on long term / high AAV contracts, Preller has little choice but to try to get multiple useful players on lower cost / short term deals … so needs to be “indifferent” as to the specific player and work to get the lower cost best value.
I suspect underlying that plan is a belief the core team (Machado et al) plus the potential emergence of the top prospects (maybe by mid-year) will be playoff contenders and the need is to eliminate any major short run holes to stay in the playoff hunt until they get to the trade deadline. All this while setting up to stay under the luxury tax threshold when the season ends. Can work.
#949 · December 16, 2023, 12:47 pm
We probably will never know more than we already do about how or why we ended up in this position. The death of our owner and the termination of our tv contract are big parts, and the speculation that Siedler drove exorbitant spending more so than Preller is likely, but I'm not sure I'll ever really be able to grasp why we constructed a 250m roster when we knew that we'd only really be able to afford around 200m. That seems infinitely stupid to me when you're lining up 10-14 year contracts like you're going to be spending 250m/yr until 2035.
It feels like Preller just kind of said "fuck it, either it works or I'll be fired and won't be around to clean up the mess..." except he is around to clean up the mess and he has no idea how to do it.
#950 · December 16, 2023, 3:08 pm
Quote from Randy Manese on December 16, 2023, 10:29 amSo how does everyone feel about how Preller has done so far in the off-season? Fenn has mentioned several times how difficult a task it will be for Preller to assemble a playoff team given the circumstances he is under to trim the budget and fit it under the CBT. We could say that this is Preller's fault for those extensions in 2023, but could those extensions been more Seidler-driven than Preller-driven? We know Seidler was close with Machado and Darvish so those extensions should not have been all that surprising. Further, Seidler was also the ultimate Padres fan besides being the owner and I'm sure he had a soft spot for Cronenworth and wanted to reward him accordingly. So not knowing how much Preller was influenced by Seidler to get those extensions done (and Preller will never say that he was forced to do it), we do know that Seidler had to approve the deals and that is where we are today. I do think, however, that Bogaerts was probably a Preller push when he should have gone after more pitching.
Given the above, I'm okay with the decisions made so far by Preller, except for not picking up the club option on Wacha. Even that may have a caveat because Wacha was unable to get more on the open market than what the Padres would have paid him and they may have the best insight into the extent of Wacha's shoulder injury/damage than any other team. I would not have paid Martinez or Lugo the amounts/length of contract they got from the teams they signed with; I'm happy we dumped Carpenter's salary in the way we did; I think we got a fair return for the Yankees' rental of Soto for one year; and, so far, I'm very pleased we've not traded away any of our top prospects. Dodgers just pulled a trade with an extension contingency so maybe we can get the Marlins to do the same thing with Kim and get one of their top two LH pitchers? Kim, even though in his walk year, is at his highest trade value right now so I can see a deal coming.
Can't really judge it at this point. I think there's some panic setting in after the Soto trade and lack of subsequent additions. I'm sure there are still at least a handful of moves to be made. It's definitely disappointing having to trade a superstar after we got accustomed to bringing them in the past few years. Things could still change pretty drastically by opening day.