Quote from fenn68 on December 15, 2023, 4:45 am

I do think the Padres can compete for a playoff slot in 2024 then as we have seen once in the playoffs anyone can win it all.

The “core” is strong and provides a good base. So the challenge for Preller … via FA and trades … has to make “smart” moves to fill out the roster (a complete and balanced roster with no black holes). Plus need a bit of luck on health and prospect development.

Beginning to be clear that Preller is not going after the big money FA … that makes sense if you like the “core” and need to focus on plugging multiple significant holes. As I suggested before … if Preller is “indifferent” to the specific FA player to fill a need because the differential in his mind is minimal … just wait it out until the player demands drop as ST approaches and they are not signed. A way to get all the slots covered with the same funding.

Sort of the same thinking on trades and wait out other teams as the other teams’ options to improve start to fade and a trade becomes more needed to complete their rosters.

Maybe some bits and pieces as time moves on but would not be surprised if most of the moves occur in early February or even in ST.

Quote from 84padres on December 15, 2023, 4:46 am

I wouldn't be surprised if 2025 is  more realistic than 2024 .  We need a couple of rookie pitchers to excel and next year is more likely .

Quote from MrPadre19 on December 15, 2023, 6:35 am

Preller is definitely going to add a few more pieces this off season...big moves or small who knows.

But it's obvious our near future and our chances to compete with LA and the rest of the division depends on Merrill,Snelling,Iriartet.Salas and the rest.

We shouldn't expect any more "flashy" signings....it's time to depend on the prospects.

But,we could(hopefully) See a trade for an established guy...like Arozarena.

TB's M.O. is to trade these guys when they start getting expensive and expensive to them isn't the same as expensive to most others.

He'd be a great(and fun) addition if we can pull it off.....but with three years of control it won't be painless.

I've been saying for awhile that I expect Merrill to be traded....I could see a Merrill for Arozarena type deal.

It does make sense as we need outfielders and have shortstops.

that may contradict my other statement but Merrills' value as a "SS trade piece" IMO is more valuable than his value to us moving to LF.

But my opinion means little...guess we'll wait and see.

It seems AJ likes to announce deals around Christmas if I remember right....Let's go!

 

 

 

Quote from fenn68 on December 15, 2023, 6:46 am

Sort of agree … and would not mind adding Arozarena … but see (in maybe a more complicated way) Preller making the most effort in dealing Kim and Cronenworth and setting up a middle INF of Merrill - Bogaerts. Why … money … now and going forward!

TB does like pitching prospects … so more likely if the Padres wanted Arozarena they would be dipping into the large pool a near term piching prospects maybe augmented with a Martorella or Pauley.

Not sure how to size a return for 3 years (at a reasonalbe salary) for a talent like Arozarena … but is a good target since he does appear in play.

Quote from fenn68 on December 15, 2023, 7:43 am

OK, how about trading Kim to MIA (a playoff team that needs a SS) for league minimum / longer control players (MIA really does not reduce the quality of the ML roster) … Padres then take those players … mix and match with Padre prospects (not the Top 5) and send the new grouping to TB for Arozarena.

Padres save $8MM from Kim and add $9MM for Azorarena … only a net +$1MM and still over $20MM to fill the other slots … Bogaerts - Cronenworth hold the middle INF. Padres buy some time for Cronenworth to rebuild some trade value and get moved at a later date while Merrill gets another year of development.

Quote from fenn68 on December 15, 2023, 7:54 am

On a Cronenworth trade … given his 2023 and the length of his contract … going to be very hard baring a rebound 2024.

However, need the right buyer … a team that needs a 2B (2024 at only $7MM) and willing to gamble a bit on the remaining years. One factor in the thinking could be for a team with some financial flexibility is that Cronenworth’s $12MM in 6 years … given the escalation of all salaries … may seem a bargain (maybe like $7MM today). So if the current need is great with some upside idea on Cronenworth … could see a trade. Could use that same arguement to keep Cronenworth and return him to 2B in SD … just does not look as though the Padres see it that way.

First of all, Padres can’t really push for a major return and just relish the increased payroll flexibility while opening room for Merrill in the middle INF.

Also, have heard some speculate that a SS desperate team MIGHT consider returning Cronenworth to his original position at SS … at least in the short run. Cronenworth’s offensive stats might play well at SS if he still can handle the defense.

 

Quote from Randy Manese on December 15, 2023, 8:30 am

Looking at Renfroe's 5.5M deal for 2024 as the ceiling for Profar, which actually may be a little high since Renfroe is considered better both offensively and defensively in the OF than Profar.  Profar, with his contract buyout last year, got 8.75M - I think we can get him to stay here for roughly half of that.  Profar's value to us is his versatility and the fact he is a great clubhouse presence, at least for this team.

Quote from MrPadre19 on December 15, 2023, 9:34 am

Quote from fenn68 on December 15, 2023, 6:46 am

Sort of agree … and would not mind adding Arozarena … but see (in maybe a more complicated way) Preller making the most effort in dealing Kim and Cronenworth and setting up a middle INF of Merrill - Bogaerts. Why … money … now and going forward!

TB does like pitching prospects … so more likely if the Padres wanted Arozarena they would be dipping into the large pool a near term piching prospects maybe augmented with a Martorella or Pauley.

Not sure how to size a return for 3 years (at a reasonalbe salary) for a talent like Arozarena … but is a good target since he does appear in play.

This may be why it hasn't happened.

I doubt TB wants Kim for one season or Cronenworth at his current cost so AJ would have to do as you say...trade them elsewhere and then lose 2-3 good pitching prospects which I don't believe AJ is willing to do.

I could see him trading one of Mazur/Iriarte/Brito or "maybe" Lesko....but he's not giving up multiple young arms IMO.

Kim to Miami makes sense but they would want an extension with him I'm sure.

How about Iriarte/Zavala/Lesko for Arozarena?

Or

Merrill/Iriarte

To me Snelling and Salas are the only untouchables.

 

Quote from fenn68 on December 15, 2023, 10:10 am

I would not use Merrill since I believe Kim will not be extended (or will be traded) leaving only Bogaerts as the only SS (I am not betting on Cronenworth). Actually expect the Padres to continue to try to move Croney (and at some point will succeed).

However, arguably, the Padres have multiple Top 100 prospects in Lesko, Snelling, Thorpe, and Iriate … then looking good in AA Bergert and Mazur. I would expect the Padres to hold on the top 3 (in Preller’s mind) … maybe top 4 … for a low cost, long control future #3-5 SP. So maybe use 2 of these guys and add whomever they get in a Kim trade and that is enough? Remember the reason Arozarena is on the market is primarily cost … so they may not be holding out for an unreasonable return.

Maybe not all pitchers … if they get Arozarena (3 years) … does that put Pauley, Zavala, or Martorella in play betting more on the future with Head, Bush, or some of the lower level OF?

Have to finesse around Arozarena’s contract going forward $9MM in 2024 is covered by a Kim trade and maybe 2025 is covered by Kim+Carpenter … 2026 will be touchy unless a number of the piching prospects hit (along with Merrill and Marsee).

I can’t be thinking about adding to payroll without addressing offsets in the short run and long run.