Quote from BoosterSD on December 13, 2023, 8:20 am

Quote from fenn68 on December 13, 2023, 8:12 am

How does he make the entire roster better and win more … probably not by focusing on any one player or position … but by a process of continuous redirection based on who is available and the timing of making moves.

This could possibly boil down to the fact that maybe there were too many Stars on last seasons team. And not enough "regular Joes".

Maybe with the reduction of "stars" such as Soto, Snell, and Hader, this becomes more of a cohesive team and performs better. See Profar, definitely not a star but provided something that was missing most of the year.

If you look at AZ, the only real star to start the season was Gallen, with Carrol emerging during the season.

So with a base of Machado, Tatis, and Bogaerts with some timely contributions from Crone and the up and coming kids, the return of Profar this season turns out better as a whole.

Quote from MrPadre19 on December 13, 2023, 11:06 am

Adding King helps...but he really just replaces Wacha....Vasquez replaces Martinez.

We still need to replace Snell(Cy Young winner),Hader(top 3 Closer in MLB),Soto(future HOF player and top 10 bat), Grisham (Gold Glove CF) and Lugo(Solid #4 SP).

I just don't see how we get close without trading Merrill and maybe others.

Trading Kim or even Cronenworth may help in the long run but it just adds another hole for '24.

Are we going to get a player "better" than Kim FOR Kim?

Nope.

A lot of moves still coming that's for sure...then we just have to hope the chemistry is off the charts(got rid of some Clubhouse issues) and we don't suck in close games again...which seems impossible to happen two years in a row.

 

 

Quote from BoosterSD on December 13, 2023, 11:54 am

Quote from MrPadre19 on December 13, 2023, 11:06 am

Adding King helps...but he really just replaces Wacha....Vasquez replaces Martinez.

We still need to replace Snell(Cy Young winner),Hader(top 3 Closer in MLB),Soto(future HOF player and top 10 bat), Grisham (Gold Glove CF) and Lugo(Solid #4 SP).

Lets be honest, except for last season Snell was not really better than a low end #2 or high end #3 SP. So not as difficult to replace as many think.

Hader a little more difficult to replace, Suarez needs to up his game to the level of his salary.

Soto, can not be replaced stat wise. Just have to hope that you can find a LFer that can field (Soto's glove cost us at least 3 games that I remember) and can produce at an average MLB player. Then the remaining stars have to get back to their baseball cards to cover the balance of offense lost from Soto's departure.

Grisham's defense will be harder to replace; however, I believe that Taylor, Bader, and/or Kiermaier can all do that, while being at least the same offense if not a touch more than Grisham.

Lugo was a hedge bet that paid off wildly better than anyone thought. So, why cant Brito or Vasquez have the same jump? Or another hedge bet by Preller from another FA candidate.

Quote from Randy Manese on December 13, 2023, 1:22 pm

If I'm giving up Kim to Miami, then suggest we get very creative.   I would want either of their two LHPs Luzardo or Garrett in return, so to compensate what may or may not be a one year rental, I would offer Morejon, Bergert and/Lizarraga plus OF Sammy Zavala, C Lamar King and INF Marcos Castanon.   I would want Miami to include Berti so we have a better bench in the short run than Batten or Eguy.

Probably not likely Miami would do this unless they felt fairly certain they could re-sign Kim; predict Kim will want upwards of 15M (much more if he hits like he did before his injury in September).  Too bad MLB doesn't follow the NBA practice of extend then trade - that would be a perfect scenario for the Padres in this instance.

Quote from WindsorUK on December 14, 2023, 12:14 am

Anyone in on Rhys Hoskins? On a one year make good deal? A la Bellinger? 1B, big power...could do worse?

Should be back from ACL by spring training....worth a shot?

Quote from fenn68 on December 14, 2023, 1:39 am

Not a likely signing given the limited money to spend and the higher priority holes in CF, LF, SP, RP.

Not just the gamble on Hoskins’ knee being fully recovered but probably prioritizing a LHH who can play in the OF … Hoskins was really a DH before the injury so too limited in use and even if healthy how quickly will he return to form after a year off? Too much risk for the money.

IF Hoskins opts for a lower cost “pillow contract” he is not going to sign with SD because of PETCO and the parks in the NL West. His game is power and will take the lower deal to play in a hitter’s park to rebuild his value.

Quote from fenn68 on December 14, 2023, 2:16 am

Until the Padres prove me wrong, I am trying to plan with the assumptions:

1. Padres will be working during this winter with a hard cap at the $237MM (AAV) … stay under the luxury tax threshold. Fangraphs has the Padres $28MM under with the current roster.

2. Because players do get injured or just under perform, Padres will have to add some minor leaguers during the course of the season that will add to the payroll as they get bumped to league minimum … so maybe need a $3-5MM cushion lowering the available money to $25MM (or less).

3. With 7 players on long term deals totally about $140MM (AAV) … 5 with no trade clauses … Padres will avoid any long term deals and probably look for 1 year deals.

4. First priority is the OF … LF/CF (depending on how they view Marsee as a CF or LF or 4th OF or not ready) … but a minimum of two adds. Then a SP.

5. This market is showing that mediocre players are still in the $10MM range meaning $25MM is not going to get them all they need. So, must first consider which internal prospects they want to rely on to be mediocre at league minimum cost and purse all trade routes for low cost alternatives. Past the one or two “better” FA signings believe the rest of the slots will be filled by internal prospects or trades.

6. Given the hard cap … can’t really take a big risk on rebound from injury or a down year if it is a large contract. Maybe on a low end contract or a minor league make good deal.

This is going to be hard as Preller has to be evaluating all three routes to add at the same time for all the openings … make the priority calls based on who is really available at what cost  … then after move #1 shift plan priorities.  Whew!

Even though Preller is always saying adding pitching is the priority not mentioning the OF … have to believe he needs to address CF as the #1 priority unless he has locked into Marsee … then it should be LF. Those two positions with no bodies might be considered a problem whereas can at least “fake” SP/RP given the bodies in the system.

Quote from fenn68 on December 14, 2023, 4:10 am

IF the Padres don’t see Marsee in CF … might they make Kevin Kiermaier their #1 priority?

LHH (a need) … excellent defense … the better offensive option of the FA (ex Bellinger) … hard to see a low cost quality CF via trade.

Projected on a 2 year / $20MM contract ($10MM AAV) … that probably means it will be at least a $12MM AAV .. or nearly half of the money the Padres have to deploy. Problem may be he is waiting for the Bellinger deal to come down and hope the losers in the Bellinger race fall back to him and raise his total contract value.

Then go lower end for the other two OF slots (if Marsee is not one of them) … Profar would be good and should be a low cost sign that can cover both OF/INF. Still money left for an OK OF option.

Betting on the sea of current arms being good enough for the #4-5 SP. RP is so low on my priority rank that not even going there.

Quote from MrPadre19 on December 14, 2023, 6:58 am

I've been arguing hard for a trade with Miami for pitching since this time last year....but,they've had so many injuries to their Starters I'm thinking they will be very reluctant to trade one this off season.

Probably rather find a low end SS rather than give up Garrett or Cabrera....and would want a kings ransom for Luzardo.

But maybe they will?

May depend on how soon they believe Meyer will be ready.