Forum
Forum Navigation
OFFSEASON 2023-24
#891 · December 12, 2023, 6:18 pm
At this time, I would think it best to trade Kim. As mentioned, MIA needs a SS and we need at least one more SP and some BP help as well.
It appears that most likely either Trevor Rogers and Edward Cabrera are the ones available. Rogers is LHP and under control through 2025. He did a soso season in 2022 and some injuries in 2023. Cabrera is RHP with control through 2028. He has some control issues. But probably somebody that Niebla can work with, the stuff is there.
Since I think SD needs a LHSP, I would take the chance with Rogers.
Rogers and Berti for Kim.
#892 · December 13, 2023, 2:40 am
Kim for Rogers and Berti might work on balance but would guess Preller would want more after the return he got for Soto with 1 year.
Kim plays a premium position at a high level both offensively and defensively and only cost around $7MM and that fits both a field need and cost need that the playoff Marlins want.
Rodgers is low cost with 2 years control but so-so 2022-23 and maybe more a bottom of the rotation arm (I expect he is healthy) with still some upside. Probably someone Preller would want. Berti too is low cost with 2 years control but is basically an INF (minimal OF time) and on the Padres maybe more utility. Like them both but not sure they equate to Kim’s value unless the 2021 Rogers returns. Maybe MIA needs to add a prospect to balance this out.
Wonder if the teams could juggle other trade chips yielding the Padres Rogers and Max Meyer? Preller did say he wanted more pitching … both SP and RP. Rogers is a rebound gamble … and Meyer should be totally clear of his TJ in 2022 and was ML ready. Meyer is a Top 100 type and projected to be SP but also has closer potential. Meyer’s potential along with Rogers might be a better a more equitable balance to Kim.
Padres would avoid some more payroll … so at that point could focus on OF adds with a bit more money to spend.
However, MIA does seem the best match for a deal …
#893 · December 13, 2023, 3:25 am
With Lee off the table and looking at the FA for CF (excluding Bellinger) I wonder if Preller looks at that group and is somewhat indifferent as to who he signs since they will all be short term and the projections (WAR) are not all that different. Keep in mind that contracts so far have consistently exceeded projections and the Padres do have to consider money.
IF so, does he just wait it out and takes the first one that is willing to sigh at a low price … maybe the last man standing looking for a home? Consider the following ranked by projected WAR:
* incumbents: Marsee / Azocar at league minimum … they are sort of a baseline with whatever Preller projects as their 2024 performance.
1. Bader (30) … 1.6 WAR … 2 years / $18MM ($9MM AAV)
2. Kiermaier (34) … 1.1 WAR ..2 years / $20MM ($10MM AAV) … only LHH
3. Taylor (33) … 1.0 WAR … 1 year / $7MM
4. Duvall (35) … 0.3 WAR … 1 year / $8MM
Sort of depends on how Preller views Marsee in 2025 as to whether he would prefer a 1 year deal v a 2 year deal. Also, this is CF … need good legs … would he worry about age cutting into a player’s defense and health?
The $7-10MM AAV projected range is probably now $9MM-12MM but if Preller is indifferent and swoops in on the last man standing … might keep down (or even lower than projection). The wild cards are Marsee / Azocar … even if Preller wants to sign a CF … if he projects Marsee / Azocar to be acceptable in 2025 (or later 2024) he may just want the shorter deal / lowest cost as a bridge. Use the money differential for other needs (LF/DH/SP/RP).
#894 · December 13, 2023, 3:27 am
No way we trade Kim, not with us going to Seoul to open the season against the Doggers. Hopefully, Shildt's ties are strong enough to land Bader for CF on a 1 or 2 year deal (or 1 year deal with a club option for 2 years). Still need a power LH bat for DH/1B. Hopefully, Preller can re-sign Profar at a reasonable deal to be super sub/LH platoon for LF. Who are some LH power bats that are available, no one pops into my mind now that Tellez has signed with the Pirates? Maybe Carlos Santana, he always lights up Padres pitching.
Still need multiple arms, especially a good starter and quality back end of the pen arm. Preller has his work cut out for him. Only want short term deals for free agents, need to start letting the kids play (both hitters & pitchers) as much as possible. Let's hope we don't trade from the top of our farm system (Salas, Merrill, Snelling, Lesko, Thorpe, Iriarte, Mazur, Head, Marsee or Pauley) which means the best we can offer is Zavala, Bush, Bergert, Verdugo, Valenzuela, or Lizarraga. I don't see us getting many big names for that lot.
Need to gamble on players types like LHP Eric Lauer returning or RP Yariel Rodriguez. We are definitely taking a step backwards talent wise this year. Preller has to trust the farm system and not overpay for short term veteran help. This all leads to a meh offseason for us. Ugh!
#895 · December 13, 2023, 6:29 am
Off the top of my head, available FA LHH power bats would be Pederson, Meadows, Belt, Jared Walsh, Peralta, and a Preller favorite Gallo.
Pederson - limited to LF or more realistically DH.
Meadows - bounce back candidate, but may not play again.
Belt - limited to 1B or DH, may retire.
Walsh - bounce back candidate. And mostly a 1B, limited time in the OF.
Peralta - LFer, and probably limited to a platoon situation as performance against LHP has dwindled.
Gallo - bat has dwindled, but Preller loves him (Texas connection).
None of them are a great solution.
#896 · December 13, 2023, 6:55 am
Could SD look at longtime ML SP Greinke? He did throw 142 innings last season. He had a high ERA and a WHIP of 1.272, but only made $8.5M. Could see a minor reduction in ERA and WHIP with a return to the bigger parks of the NL West v the AL Central. Although the line ups will much tougher in the NL West.
#897 · December 13, 2023, 6:55 am
JD Martinez 2023 PA 479 ; AVG .271 ; HR 33 ; RBI 103 ; OPS .893 ; OPS+ 134
Ohtani 2023 PA 599 ; AVG .304 ; HR 44 : RBI 95 ; OPS 1.066 ; OPS+ 184
Ohtani is an upgrade but not as big as they want you to believe
#898 · December 13, 2023, 7:07 am
Another note against the trade of Kim,besides the obvious and the Korea trip is that Manny will be DH for 4-6 weeks to start the season.
I assume he is our starting Thirdbaseman to start the season.
Who plays 3B if you trade Kim?
Batten?
I don't think so....only option I could think of here would be to sign 39 yr old Justin Turner who could play 3B and 1B against Lefties.
1B/3B/DH/PH
Not sure what kind of deal he's gonna get but it shouldn't be more than a 2 year deal and he makes sense for those positions and the short commitment
#899 · December 13, 2023, 7:55 am
Quote from MrPadre19 on December 13, 2023, 7:07 amAnother note against the trade of Kim,besides the obvious and the Korea trip is that Manny will be DH for 4-6 weeks to start the season.
I assume he is our starting Thirdbaseman to start the season.
Who plays 3B if you trade Kim?
Batten?
I don't think so....only option I could think of here would be to sign 39 yr old Justin Turner who could play 3B and 1B against Lefties.
1B/3B/DH/PH
Not sure what kind of deal he's gonna get but it shouldn't be more than a 2 year deal and he makes sense for those positions and the short commitment
Yep that has to factor in … no idea on when Machado will be ready for the field but if it is Apr 15 might be OK with a short term fix … if it is Jun 30 and different issue.
Guessing on a short team fix puts either Merrill or Cronenworth at the 2B/3B slots while Manny is DH … no matter the mix going to still need another bat for the full season. If real short term … Batten / Rosario.
Fangraphs has Turner signing at $12MM … and given the market that is low. With only $25-30MM to spend a bit hard to fit in with the other needs plus the market will probably add a couple of million to that. Even if you remove the Kim money it would be a $5MM+ hit but maybe justified at the net.
#900 · December 13, 2023, 8:12 am
My dilemma is that all the Padres FA departures from the pitching had me projecting the Padres to miss the playoffs in 2024 without some significant signings (even with Soto / Grisham). Enter the clearer view of the payroll limitations. Enter the FA market requiring contract well beyond any expectations.
Now with the current roster after trading Soto / Grisham … still have them not making the playoffs with the better but unproven pitching adds and no LF/CF but with more money to deploy but no great FA options for all the needs given the money available.
Preller has a real challenge. If they want to add one or two “better” pieces to the roster believe it that will have more impact over the season than a long list of just OK players, then the almost have to: 1) bet on one or more league minimum prospects to adequately handle other slots (Merrill, Marsee, Pauley, one or more of the pitchers); 2) trade a Kim or Suarez for maybe a more strategic fill or to clear more money for a better sign at a more stragegic need with the assumption can back fill either adequately.
How does he make the entire roster better and win more … probably not by focusing on any one player or position … but by a process of continuous redirection based on who is available and the timing of making moves.