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OFFSEASON 2023-24
#781 · December 8, 2023, 12:13 am
Jung Hoo Lee's 30 day posting period began on 4 December and expires on 3 January - which is 15 days shorter than the NPB league's posting rules. For example, Yoshinobu Yamamoto was posted on 21 November and his period expires on 4 January. The downside with Lee is that Boras is his agent, so he could be pushing Lee to aim for a contract that would eclipse that of any Korean baseball player, which was a 6 year 36M contract the Dodgers gave Ryu back in 2013.
Given today's going rate for decent OFs, I can see Lee getting a 4-5 year contract so he becomes a FA again while under 30 and still easily beat Ryu's contract - say 12.5M for 5 years (62.5M). This is more than his good friend Kim got (and is getting) so I think he would be satisfied with such a contract and possibly take the slightly lesser amount than others would offer to play in San Diego. Padres might even consider signing Lee's brother-in-law, RHP Woo-Suk Go, who was the closer for the KBO champion LG Twins and has 7 years of experience but is also only 25. Go is not expected to command a huge contract so if it helps lure Lee to San Diego, it might be a good investment.
By the way, Ryu is also available in free agency but his age, injury history and expected contract demands likely will not make him a viable candidate for the Padres rotation.
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#782 · December 8, 2023, 2:12 am
Quote from sportwarrior on December 7, 2023, 11:15 pmThe consensus out there very much seems to be that, even given the circumstances, the deal was a little underwhelming for the Padres. After spending 24 hours thinking about this, I can't really argue with that. This situation, overall, just feels like proof we never should have traded for Soto to begin with.
Definitely gave up quality quantity for Soto, which some of us here disagreed with at the time.
So subtracting Soto, Preller has moved Gore, Abrams, Hassell, Wood, and Susana for King, Vazquez, Brito, Thorpe( I've not included either Voit or Higashioka because their throw away contracts)
Gore and Abrams are better than average MLB players already, with Wood projected to be as well. That's an SP, a SS, and OF/1B with Hassell and Susana still question marks.
We are now desperate for P's so I imagine 3 of the 4 will make the OD roster, with perhaps the highest upside still to come with Thorpe.
Whilst I would still love to have all the guys we traded to Washington, I'm hopeful that this group of pitchers just obtained from NY will contribute immediately and for the foreseeable future. No reason these guys can't be here for the next 5 or 6 years.
That said, how often do Yankee farmhands succeed after leaving that organisation? We got absolute rubbish when we traded Arabu way back when. Again, this time I'm hopeful for a better result.
#783 · December 8, 2023, 2:27 am
Quote from TucsonClip on December 7, 2023, 11:27 pmQuote from fenn68 on December 7, 2023, 4:13 pmRUMOR is that the Padres are making inquires about Harrison Bader … he is a gold glove caliber CF … has history in STL with Shildt … only 30 … coming off a contract at around $6-7MM. Not much of a hitter (but better than Grisham).
Could they add Bader for CF and Lee for LF for $20MM and with Tatis create the best defensive OF in MLB … they already have one of the best INF? Still would have some money left for the final upgrades.
With the pitching … and realistically not adding a big money bat given the payroll cap … would opting for the elite defense help the pitching produce at a higher level?
Could be mistaken, but I thought the word was Lee wants to play CF everyday? That's a huge selling point for the Padres.
Don’t know about Lee’s flexibility to go to LF … almost all the discussion has been as a CF and likely that is his preference but guessing Kim’s preference was SS and he accommodated a move.
I think the bigger concern is SF … they seem to be heavy into Lee … have the money to drive the price up to where SD may not choose to go … hence, Bader could be the alternative (at a lower AAV).
If there is something to have Lee sign elsewhere it is the money … given all the upgrade needs how high would the Padres go for one player? Then add the unknown of what the Padres think of Marsee’r readiness.
In this FA market … and the lack of CF options …. I can easily see Boras pushing Lee well out of the Padres range. For now, I am being conservative (worst case) on the remaining money to deploy. Luxury tax calculation would max money around $33MM … hold back $3MM for mid season adds (most likely for non-roster players being added at league minimum … and try to work with a pool at $30MM.
$30MM for a CF, LF, DH plus further upgrades in pitching is a challenge given the players available and want some quality. Has to be a pivot point when Preller passes on the one better player to work on adds that better fill out a complete line-up.
Just to add to Preller’s decision tree … wants to win in 2024 but also does not want to get into a bind going forward with immovable AAV numbers. Signing Lee long term at a significant AAV added to the current crop … would cause a further squeeze going forward IF re-signing Kim is a priority (only money dropping will be Carpenter).
Is signing Bader for 2 years at half the AAV of Lee for 5 years (with the unknown of Lee’s 2024 performance as he transitions) and Marsee, Bush, Head in the wings over the next few years a better strategic move allowing to sign a better LF, DH, pitching?
Does all the above link to Preller trading Cronenworth ($11MM AAV long term) and go with Merrill in the INF now? Will a 2025 AAV for Kim ($15MM+?) work in the budget with a Lee and a Cronenworth? Does all that push Preller to work on adds with lower AAVs and on 1-2 year deals? I could see Preller pull back off Lee and go a different direction in an effort to build a better TEAM.
#784 · December 8, 2023, 5:56 am
Quote from BoosterSD on December 7, 2023, 9:27 amQuote from MrPadre19 on December 7, 2023, 9:11 amAm I the only one worried about Lee taking 1-2 years to hit?...like Kim?
There aren't many (if any) guys who come straight from the KBO an dhit.
I guess the hopeful saving grace is that Kim has been working with Lee on the things that Kim didnt know when Kim first came over. In an attempt to shorten the learning curve for Lee.
So hopefully it doesnt take 1-2 seasons for Lee to get up to speed.
In reality this year Lee has to beat Grishams production from last year and it would be a plus for us
#785 · December 8, 2023, 6:12 am
I'm sure AJ has 25 fall back options for OF/1B/DH/SP but I also think it all depends on if he gets Lee and at what cost?
Has to land the higher priced guy(s) before filling in the bench.
I'm still hoping for Profar (we just win when he's on the team) and Jankowski for bench.
We need LH bats and would prefer Jankowski over Bader.
Sign Lee-----Sign one of Profar/Jankowski----sign Garrett Cooper for back up 1B/DH/PH
If we are $ strapped and still need a DH/5th OF anyone think a bounce back season from Jesse Winker is possible?
He just turned 30 and had a great season just 2 years ago...LH bat for the bench?
#786 · December 8, 2023, 6:26 am
Have been trying to build in my mind a 26 man Padre roster that is playoff worthy ... with the assumption that they currently only have $30MM to deploy (love to be wrong but have to work at the most conservative level).
Need a CF ... LF ... 9th Hitter ... another SP. Going to be difficult with the current FA to fit quality for all those slots. So, pivot points:
- do they take the $30MM and go big ($15MMish) on one then go low ($5MMish) on three others? do they avoid the big salary and spread more equally over the four adds?
- do they make trades for low AAV types ... at least a couple to allow more AAV available for the other adds? Does that require moving some of the Padre prospects?
- do they "rely" on some internal options such as Merrill, Marsee, or Pauley for one (or more) openings allowing more AAV for the other adds?
- do they trade Cronenworth ($11MM AAV) and/or Suarez ($9MM AAV) ... and long term ... to open more AAV space and potential get a piece to fill one of the other holes (link with point #3)?
- can they actually acquire via FA or for trade some of the players that have been mentioned since the FA and other teams in a trade scenario have to agree ... not just going to give into Padre asking.
Then roll in move #1 will likely impact the next moves ... eg if they go big on CF (Lee) the options for the other adds gets pared down. If they go low for CF the other adds may expand with options. What order will play out? Which position will Preller push to happen first to meet his view of priority needs?
Preller just has to have "multiple" plans that a continually change depending on what comes down first ... second ... etc. That will keep us fans on our toes this winter.
#787 · December 8, 2023, 6:42 am
Signing....or not signing Lee and trading.....or not trading Cronenworth,are basically going to determine where we go.
If we sign Lee we know how much we have left to deploy....if he signs elsewhere we also know.....plus, how much of Crones salary gets moved "if" we trade him?
IMO these two moves or non moves will determine what SP or LF or CF we sign.
#788 · December 8, 2023, 6:55 am
Quote from MrPadre19 on December 8, 2023, 6:12 amI'm sure AJ has 25 fall back options for OF/1B/DH/SP but I also think it all depends on if he gets Lee and at what cost?
Has to land the higher priced guy(s) before filling in the bench.
I'm still hoping for Profar (we just win when he's on the team) and Jankowski for bench.
We need LH bats and would prefer Jankowski over Bader.
Sign Lee-----Sign one of Profar/Jankowski----sign Garrett Cooper for back up 1B/DH/PH
If we are $ strapped and still need a DH/5th OF anyone think a bounce back season from Jesse Winker is possible?
He just turned 30 and had a great season just 2 years ago...LH bat for the bench?
I could really support sign of Profar and Jankowski ... both should be low cost at one year ... both were quality clubhouse guys ... Jankowski would be a quality defensive 4th/5th OF as a LHH complement to Azocar ... Profar can fill a lot of roles ... should be able to get BOTH for a max of $6-8MM ... fills two OF roles leaving maybe $22-24MM for boosting CF (Lee?) and another add for $7-10MM. I guess could flip that and acquire Burnes or Bieber at $15MM and sign Bader for $7-10MM.
I guess an advantage of the Burnes / Bader strategy is both would be short term and if they want to contend in 2024 Burnes would have a better certainty of impact given the projected SP rotation and the ever present injury concerns while Bader gives defense and a more "known" offensive impact (or instead of Bader the gamble on a platoon of Marsee (L)/Azocar in CF freeing up more AAV for ?). However, need to trade pieces to get Burnes. A Burnes (or Bieber) - Musgrove - Darvish - King - Vasquez rotation should be deep to get into the playoffs and set up a #1-3 that would be very strong in the playoffs.
No matter the thinking ... getting the sense that the Padres have to bet on one or more of their internal prospects to be at least serviceable in 2024 to allow more AAV to add some greater impact pieces rather than a sea of so-so (or high risk) adds. Only the Padres know (believe) who could step in and hold a position in the ML to start 2024.
#789 · December 8, 2023, 6:59 am
Quote from TucsonClip on December 7, 2023, 11:26 pm
#790 · December 8, 2023, 7:02 am
Quote from sportwarrior on December 7, 2023, 11:15 pmThe consensus out there very much seems to be that, even given the circumstances, the deal was a little underwhelming for the Padres. After spending 24 hours thinking about this, I can't really argue with that. This situation, overall, just feels like proof we never should have traded for Soto to begin with.
As much as I love Tatis , his suspension really screwed the Padres . The Soto trade was made with the the idea of pairing him with Tatis and he sure messed that up. Add in the 21 games last year when his presence would most likely meant a couple of wins and a playoff berth .