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OFFSEASON 2023-24

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At this point it seems that the Padres have a 2024 actual payroll commitment of $187 million after this trade. Their lux tax # is $207 million and the first lux tax threshold is $237 million. I am sure that the Padres will be ducking back under the lux tax next year(they need those missing draft picks and draft money), so I am guessing that they have just under $30 million to spend. In today's dollars that gets you 1-starting OF and 1-#5 starter. Maybe a reliever on the side. I think we will be settling for Merrill, Marsee and Zavala for LF next year.

Anyone think with the way the payroll is setting up and the need for an arm…either we go after Burnes or…just a hunch that AJ may be giving a call over to Rachel Luba to see if Bauer will sign for $3 million base and up to $7-10 million in incentives based on good behavior and innings. Bauer is 32 years old but really itching to prove the doubters wrong. Would draw some ire for sure. But not a ton of innings on his shoulder/arm especially in recent years.

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3fingersplitJeremy Hill

RUMOR is that the Padres are making inquires about Harrison Bader … he is a gold glove caliber CF … has history in STL with Shildt … only 30 … coming off a contract at around $6-7MM. Not much of a hitter (but better than Grisham).

Could they add Bader for CF and Lee for LF for $20MM and with Tatis create the best defensive OF in MLB …  they already have one of the best INF? Still would have some money left for the final upgrades.

With the pitching … and realistically not adding a big money bat given the payroll cap  … would opting for the elite defense help the pitching produce at a higher level?

In the defensive theme … note that Higashioka was a Top 10 defensive catcher in 2023. Not a bad choice to help the pitching staff for a 2nd catcher slot.

If I'm a GM, I'm asking if Bader is enough of an improvement over Grish to adequately justify/explain trading him to the clubhouse.

WindsorUK has reacted to this post.
WindsorUK

I agree. Bader would be a bad move unless he signs for 2 mil or less. No justification to getting rid of Grisham unless you have a move for Lee all set or you have tatis penciled in CF or you think you can get more offensively from Bader. Personally, I wouldn’t mind to see the following 6 moves:

Sign Lee (5/55)

Resign Profar (4 mil)

Trade for Burnes (sign new 7 years 154 mil contract -through age 36 22 mil per including this season)

Sign Bauer (3-4 mil plus incentives made 4 mil flat last season could also go 1 year 4 mil with 2nd year option at 5 mil or 1 mil buyout and guarantee 5 mil)

Sign Matsui/Rodriguez (7-8mil)

If dont sign Burnes to new contract then sign Rhys Hoskins to 3/54 - 15 first season opt out after first season or team option for second year at 19 mil or 3 mil buyout. If sign Burnes to contract then sign Tellez or Cooper for 3-4 mil

 

So if no new contract for Burnes looking at 34 mil increase in payroll for this season unless Brewers either send some money and get a better prospect or unless cronenworth is included and get a better prospect.

If Burnes agrees to new contract then additional 50 mil without shedding a contract.

We still don’t know if the padres are committed to a 200 million dollar payroll for this season or if they are committed to being under the luxury threshold. Fangraphs has the Padres currently at 156 mil for payroll but 209 mil for luxury tax. If definitely staying under the luxury tax then that leaves them with 28 mil to spend and have to hope they can resign before hitting free agency or outbid other teams.

Possible 26 man

C Campusano

1B Hoskins/Tellez/Cooper

2B Boegarts/Crone

SS Kim/Boegarts/Merril

3B Manny/Kim

LF Profar/Marsee

CF Lee

RF Tatis

DH Marsee/Manny

Bench

Higashioka

Carpenter

Marcano

Batten

Azocar

Rosario

Pitching Staff

Burnes

Musgrove

Bauer

Darvish

King

Brito/Morejon Long man/6th starter

De Los Santos

Wilson

Cosgrove

Suarez

Matsui/Rodriguez

Notes:

Would the offense/depth be enough? I still have doubts and think another power bat would be needed perhaps a minor league free agent gamble such as Voit or Franmil

Also, players left off 26 man:

Iriarte, Kerr, Gillaspie, Avila, Estrada, Groome, Jakob, Estrada, Kolek, Otto, Reynolds, Vazquez, Waldron

All could be in play as part of Burnes trade. Preller could see only one SP add as necessary and get Burnes and then add woodruff for back half of season (lots of 40 man space) and use both Brito and Morejon in the rotation (big risk but allows 3 mil less in added payroll)

 

MrPadre19 has reacted to this post.
MrPadre19

Even though Bauer will have completed his 2 year suspension prior to the 2024 season, I would be very surprised that he or former Dodger teammate Julio Urias ever don a Padres uniform or any MLB uniform for that matter, again.  Urias had his first domestic violence incident in 2019 and then was put on admin leave again in 2023 for the same issue.  Padres like to project a wholesome community connected team so even though both were near elite pitchers, they, among others with reported similar problems, are probably not going to be in a Padres team photo any time soon.

3fingersplit has reacted to this post.
3fingersplit

The consensus out there very much seems to be that, even given the circumstances, the deal was a little underwhelming for the Padres. After spending 24 hours thinking about this, I can't really argue with that. This situation, overall, just feels like proof we never should have traded for Soto to begin with.

3fingersplit has reacted to this post.
3fingersplit
Quote from fenn68 on December 7, 2023, 4:13 pm

RUMOR is that the Padres are making inquires about Harrison Bader … he is a gold glove caliber CF … has history in STL with Shildt … only 30 … coming off a contract at around $6-7MM. Not much of a hitter (but better than Grisham).

Could they add Bader for CF and Lee for LF for $20MM and with Tatis create the best defensive OF in MLB …  they already have one of the best INF? Still would have some money left for the final upgrades.

With the pitching … and realistically not adding a big money bat given the payroll cap  … would opting for the elite defense help the pitching produce at a higher level?

Could be mistaken, but I thought the word was Lee wants to play CF everyday? That's a huge selling point for the Padres.

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3fingersplit
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