Quote from Randy Manese on December 8, 2023, 7:24 am

Padres knew Tatis would not be available early in the season, so the combo of Soto, Cruz and Carpenter were supposed to make up some of that production.  Cruz and Carpenter were actually good at the very start of the season, but Soto was terrible - he really didn't start to turn it on until almost 2 months of the season had been played.  The only other player who was hitting well at the beginning of the season was Bogaerts but then he started getting nagging injuries.  If our pitching would have held up during that time, we still would have been okay but Darvish's failure to get into his usual spring training routine plus Musgrove's injury and failure of the middle inning RP caused the very bad record at the beginning of the year.

Can't put all of this on Tatis, but he did have an offensive season well below what was expected.  While it did not affect him defensively, recovering from his shoulder/hand surgeries seemed to hurt the power in his swing.  Hope he's fully back in 2024.

Quote from fenn68 on December 8, 2023, 7:30 am

Some reports are that we should expect the signing of Ohtani today and Yamamoto this weekend ... that should really open the market of FA and trades as the "losers" with money get into the fray. No certain outcome but

1. most are leaning towards Ohtani ending up in TOR ... good for the Padres he does not end up in LAD or SF and is out of the NL. Apparently offers in the $550MM range from multiple teams ... so will he end up with $600MM?
2. current thinking that the NYM will sign Yamamoto ... some thinking his price now is nearing $300MM on a long long term deal ... good for the Padres he does not end up in LAD or S, less so he is in the NL.

Going to be interesting on how much that will elevate the contracts for Bellinger, Snell, Montgomery, et al as FA and (knowing they have bargain priced players) teams demand much more back in trades (think Burnes or Bieber).

More dominoes.

Quote from fenn68 on December 8, 2023, 7:41 am

Quote from Randy Manese on December 8, 2023, 7:24 am

Padres knew Tatis would not be available early in the season, so the combo of Soto, Cruz and Carpenter were supposed to make up some of that production.  Cruz and Carpenter were actually good at the very start of the season, but Soto was terrible - he really didn't start to turn it on until almost 2 months of the season had been played.  The only other player who was hitting well at the beginning of the season was Bogaerts but then he started getting nagging injuries.  If our pitching would have held up during that time, we still would have been okay but Darvish's failure to get into his usual spring training routine plus Musgrove's injury and failure of the middle inning RP caused the very bad record at the beginning of the year.

Can't put all of this on Tatis, but he did have an offensive season well below what was expected.  While it did not affect him defensively, recovering from his shoulder/hand surgeries seemed to hurt the power in his swing.  Hope he's fully back in 2024.

2023 was a team effort on the offense ... maybe only Kim exceeded expectations from pre-season but the rest ... blah. I think if any of Soto, Machado, Tatis, or Bogaerts hit their expectations in 2023 the Padres would be in the playoffs ... if more than one (but not all) they would have been well positioned in the playoffs and could have made a good run. Good base for 2024 expectations on offense.

Can't blame the pitching ... they were among the best staffs in MLB ... but Padres even with the blah offense could have made the playoffs if Musgrove did not get injured (and to a degree Darvish) and they had to go with Weathers and R.Hill for a lot of starts with total futility. Only a couple of extra wins would have got them in the playoffs.

That is baseball and expectations and forecast rarely pan out (better or worse).

Quote from sportwarrior on December 8, 2023, 8:32 am

Hell, they would have made the playoffs had they simply not traded for Hill.

It truly was a cataclysmic series of worst case scenarios all year long for this team.

Quote from WindsorUK on December 8, 2023, 9:09 am

Quote from fenn68 on December 8, 2023, 7:09 am

Quote from MrPadre19 on December 8, 2023, 6:42 am

Signing....or not signing Lee and trading.....or not trading Cronenworth,are basically going to determine where we go.

If we sign Lee we know how much we have left to deploy....if he signs elsewhere we also know.....plus, how much of Crones salary gets moved "if" we trade him?

IMO these two moves or non moves will determine what SP or LF or CF we sign.

 

Love the dominoes ... IF the Padres sign one of the Japanese or Korean "closers" at a low price point would that open up a Suarez trade (to offset the signing) BUT given the demand for RP all over MLB Padres may get a useful add a different position (maybe Suarez an a prospect). Note that Kimbel just signed for $13MM and he has be less than consistent in the past few season as he has moved team to team.

As I mentioned before ... other than the narrative that Suarez will be the closer ... his ML work has not justified that belief and at a $9MM AAV for 4 more years would be nice to avoid. Suarez is an expensive risk as "closer" ... not necessarily a better risk than a lower cost Brito, Wilson, Iriate, or a signing of an "import".

Would sleep on a Suarez trade. Or a Cronenworth trade (if they are OK with Merrill) more to clear the $11MM AAV for 6 years than seek a player return ... basically get a prospects in return ... use his $11MM for a more 2024 impact player on a short term deal.

Suarez 100% should be moved. No way he does enough to validate his contract.

Didn't Kirby Yates just sign for $3 or 4 million? Closers don't win you titles either( Texas bullpen blew second most saves this year, and the D-backs weren't much better)

Much rather have a guy that can go multiple innings and actually keep you in the game, to then let your all star hitters( Machado, Tatis, Bogaerts, Cronenworth types) win it for you.

Quote from Randy Manese on December 8, 2023, 9:26 am

If Ohtani signs with Toronto and Yamamoto with the Mets, then the Dodgers, Yankees and others go hot and heavy into the top tier of SP available in trade of free agency.  Look for SF and Seattle to go after Bellinger and Lee, in the order, but also may pull the trigger on trades with Tampa Bay, White Sox or other teams looking to get some young pitching for established hitters.  Top of RP market likely limited to those who think they'll be in the thick of the playoff race - we might be able able to move Suarez to one of those teams who don't want a contract as high as Hader, Hicks (or Clase in trade) or a couple of others may command.   Dominoes and speculation - got to love it! Here's hoping we make some moves that don't have us shaking our heads!

Quote from fenn68 on December 8, 2023, 9:52 am

Quote from Randy Manese on December 8, 2023, 9:26 am

If Ohtani signs with Toronto and Yamamoto with the Mets, then the Dodgers, Yankees and others go hot and heavy into the top tier of SP available in trade of free agency.  Look for SF and Seattle to go after Bellinger and Lee, in the order, but also may pull the trigger on trades with Tampa Bay, White Sox or other teams looking to get some young pitching for established hitters.  Top of RP market likely limited to those who think they'll be in the thick of the playoff race - we might be able able to move Suarez to one of those teams who don't want a contract as high as Hader, Hicks (or Clase in trade) or a couple of others may command.   Dominoes and speculation - got to love it! Here's hoping we make some moves that don't have us shaking our heads!

It is a safe bet at least one move made (or not made) will have us shaking our heads.

I am getting more and more comfortable with the idea of them getting equivalent closer production to Suarez with any one of a number of options … Brito, Wilson, an import from Japan or Korea, or a total out of the blue candidate. Just nothing to justify Suarez as a closer or his contract.

At $9MM … even as a set-up guy on some team needing a lot of relief help … Suarez would be a justifiable add (thinking Texas, PHIL, some others). Again for the Padres clear $9MM of AAV for the next 4 years would the most beneficial part of the deal so not all that concerned about the return.

Quote from sportwarrior on December 8, 2023, 10:53 am

Out of curiosity, has anyone read or heard any rumors about moving Suarez? Or is this pure speculation here on this board?

Quote from sportwarrior on December 8, 2023, 11:17 am

There's a report out there that the Jays are, in fact, going to sign Ohtani.