Quote from Jeremy Hill on December 3, 2023, 8:35 am

Quote from 84padres on December 3, 2023, 8:18 am

Release Grisham and sign Lee for 12 mil, a net cost of 7 mil .

He might start slow but I doubt he can do worse than the new Mendoza line poster boy .

I think Grisham's glove gives him a high enough floor that someone will trade for him. At worst he's a good 4th outfielder. A team that thinks they can get more offense out of him will give something up. With how many teams are reportedly involved I wouldn't be surprised if Lee gets 15m+ now.

Quote from fenn68 on December 3, 2023, 8:41 am

Quote from fenn68 on December 2, 2023, 12:44 pm

If NYY are not offering any real help to the Padres for 2024 and only prospects no better than the Padres already have (and assuming no other team has a compelling offer) ... what about a 180 degree switch on a trade proposal with the NYY (focus the saved money on the needed ML SP) but seek a return of three mega upside / low level position player prospects? Even if only one delivers potential that would in the long run make the trade success.

Three names with NYY rankings:

#6 ... Lombard ... brought him up before since the Padres liked him in the 2023 draft ...went as a #1 ... had a great start in the minors ... legit 5 tool ... SS who will likely grow out to the OF ... 2023 made it to low A

#7 ... Arias ... plus SS defensively (Preller does like him some SS) with all around talent ... 2022 #1 international prospect per MLBPipeline ... 2023 in Rookie Ball.

#11 ... Mayea ... five tool OF ... DSL in 2023 ...

Not sure Preller has the luxury of waiting for them to deliver BUT if other offers don't move the needle either ... make he best organizational deal and let the future play itself out. On the NYY side ... their GM has to be on the hot seat after failing to make the playoffs with a mega payroll and being in NY just makes the pressure that much more difficult to ignore.

Maybe my idea is not out of line with Preller's thinking ... Dennis Lin (on X) is quoting Preller that he would not shy away from targeting lower level prospects if they are "wired right" and have a lot of ability they may come quicker than the higher level prospects.

Maybe my A ball/Rookie are a bit too low level BUT does open the discussion to players with little or no AA time or above. May (or may not) be the lead player in the return but clearly opens the door for the secondary pieces being the greater upside players. Keep in mind how quickly Tatis, the current crop of Marsee / Snelling / et al moved, and Salas have moved ... so Preller has to be confident he can get better prospects that will develop quickly.

Does open some different mixes ... NYY could go Schmidt then move down to nearer my selections with the NYY keep all those they seem to love ... CUBS have a top line SP but only in A ball that could be the #1 piece ... not sure how Tiedeman is viewed as "lower level" since he is about on the same level as Snelling.

In my mind, clearly a better strategy than just accepting a ton of very fringe prospects that are long shots to be mediocre ML options.

 

Quote from fenn68 on December 3, 2023, 8:51 am

Quote from Jeremy Hill on December 3, 2023, 8:35 am

Quote from 84padres on December 3, 2023, 8:18 am

Release Grisham and sign Lee for 12 mil, a net cost of 7 mil .

He might start slow but I doubt he can do worse than the new Mendoza line poster boy .

I think Grisham's glove gives him a high enough floor that someone will trade for him. At worst he's a good 4th outfielder. A team that thinks they can get more offense out of him will give something up. With how many teams are reportedly involved I wouldn't be surprised if Lee gets 15m+ now.

Yeh, the Lee price ... both AAV and years ... given the deep pockets of the other bidders ... is getting bigger by the second. Can't see another major contract for a position player at this point.

Grisham's offense bar is so low ... I would pass on Lee and move Grisham (even if just for a PTNL) ... then gamble on Marsee / Azocar with Tatis to CF as the emergency move. To some degree keeping an eye out down the road (but not too far) the emergence of Head, Bush, Zavala to contend with Marsee for CF. Just don't see the offense as the issue in 2024 ... pitching is.

Quote from Jeremy Hill on December 3, 2023, 9:49 am

In a vacuum I think there's something to be said for just getting the highest value in return in a trade regardless of proximity or need. In the Padres situation they have to get something back that impacts the 2024 roster if they move Soto. If they take a package of guys who are further off it should be with the idea of flipping them or treating them as replacements for guys they do move. The way the roster is constructed they need immediate impact.

I also agree that pitching needs to be the focus, but if they move Soto they're going to need to bring in some offense too. I think Tatis can follow the Acuna route and get back to superstar levels in his second year back. A full season of Campy should help. I'm not sure if you can realistically expect much improvement from anyone else. I wouldn't be real comfortable with 1/3 of the lineup being made up of the likes of Grisham, Carpenter, Batten, Azocar, Rosario or any of the prospects at this point.

Quote from fenn68 on December 3, 2023, 10:13 am

Quote from Jeremy Hill on December 3, 2023, 9:49 am

In a vacuum I think there's something to be said for just getting the highest value in return in a trade regardless of proximity or need. In the Padres situation they have to get something back that impacts the 2024 roster if they move Soto. If they take a package of guys who are further off it should be with the idea of flipping them or treating them as replacements for guys they do move. The way the roster is constructed they need immediate impact.

I also agree that pitching needs to be the focus, but if they move Soto they're going to need to bring in some offense too. I think Tatis can follow the Acuna route and get back to superstar levels in his second year back. A full season of Campy should help. I'm not sure if you can realistically expect much improvement from anyone else. I wouldn't be real comfortable with 1/3 of the lineup being made up of the likes of Grisham, Carpenter, Batten, Azocar, Rosario or any of the prospects at this point.

I guess that is what the money freed up would have to accomplish … if deployed smartly.

If with this payroll limit … keeping this roster is perceived by Preller as not being capable of making the playoffs … AND … all the offers for Soto (or anyone else) is a bundle of ML ready players who really don’t move the needle in 2024 to a playoff team (can’t force another team to trade if they don’t want to) … the remaining choice is get the best return possible even if it is just for the future … then try to be smart with the extra payroll space. That could be the scenario Preller sees himself in now.

Actually can’t see any of the contenders who may be interested in trading for one year of Soto at $33MM deleting from their productive part of their ML roster. The best trade chips they would consider moving has to be prospects.

Quote from MrPadre19 on December 3, 2023, 10:53 am

Soto/Grisham/Carpenter for Guerrero/Tiedemann/Roden

Tor has Horwitz ready at 1B but could use Carp in case he isn’t.

They would have the best defensive OF in MLB with Grish/Varsho/Springer.

Soto becomes DH/LF.

Depending on how Tor feels about Schneider at 2B maybe could put Crone in instead of Grish or even Carp.

Guerrero doesn’t lose as much offense for us as a young OF from NYY would and we still add Tiedemann to rotation.

But my guess is these rumors of Tor being involved is just to get the Yanks to step up their offer.

🤷🏻‍♂️

 

 

Quote from Jeremy Hill on December 3, 2023, 11:32 am

Quote from fenn68 on December 3, 2023, 10:13 am

Quote from Jeremy Hill on December 3, 2023, 9:49 am

In a vacuum I think there's something to be said for just getting the highest value in return in a trade regardless of proximity or need. In the Padres situation they have to get something back that impacts the 2024 roster if they move Soto. If they take a package of guys who are further off it should be with the idea of flipping them or treating them as replacements for guys they do move. The way the roster is constructed they need immediate impact.

I also agree that pitching needs to be the focus, but if they move Soto they're going to need to bring in some offense too. I think Tatis can follow the Acuna route and get back to superstar levels in his second year back. A full season of Campy should help. I'm not sure if you can realistically expect much improvement from anyone else. I wouldn't be real comfortable with 1/3 of the lineup being made up of the likes of Grisham, Carpenter, Batten, Azocar, Rosario or any of the prospects at this point.

I guess that is what the money freed up would have to accomplish … if deployed smartly.

If with this payroll limit … keeping this roster is perceived by Preller as not being capable of making the playoffs … AND … all the offers for Soto (or anyone else) is a bundle of ML ready players who really don’t move the needle in 2024 to a playoff team (can’t force another team to trade if they don’t want to) … the remaining choice is get the best return possible even if it is just for the future … then try to be smart with the extra payroll space. That could be the scenario Preller sees himself in now.

Actually can’t see any of the contenders who may be interested in trading for one year of Soto at $33MM deleting from their productive part of their ML roster. The best trade chips they would consider moving has to be prospects.

If we trade Soto and Grisham we have maybe 50-60m to work with. If nothing comes back that helps the major league roster we would need 3 starters, a couple relievers, at least 1 outfielder, a 1B/DH type and a backup catcher. Some of that could come internally. I don't know that there's anyone I would bank on to start the season. That's a lot of ground to cover in free agency alone. They can make a trade for lower level prospects, but they're going to have to find some affordable talent in trades to make things work.

Quote from Jeremy Hill on December 3, 2023, 11:42 am

One guy I'm becoming more intrigued by from the Yankees I haven't seen mentioned is Ben Rice. He put up PCL like numbers in AA. He's got pretty heavy splits, he could be interesting in the C/1B/DH mix.

Quote from fenn68 on December 3, 2023, 11:43 am

I do think TOR is in the mix … they won 89 games last season and have a top tier SP staff but blaming the lack of offense as their Achilles heal … and lost Chapman (3B) to FA. Sounds as though the will go with internal options to fill 3B but will focus on LF. Probably see Balt ant TB not improving (may falling a bit) and the current NYY roster is offense deficient (so keeping Soto away helps) and no one sees Boston moving up that much. So a clear path to the AL East.

Basically they are saying they have the money and prospects to get something done. Also, considering extensions for Guerrero and Bichette. This may be TOR’s go for it year.

They are not trading Guerrero (controlled for 2 years and $20MM in 2024) since he was their 2nd best hitter in 2023 and they want more offense.

Tiedemann is the bouncing ball here. #31 ranked on MLBPipeline and TOR thinks (or is at least saying) they see him in the ML at some point in 2024. He does come with a history of injury… so not a clean decision on either side. Not really fond of the other TOR prospects but don’t know how the Padres’ scouts see them. Betting TOR does not move Tiedemann.

Maybe the counter offer Kukluchi (very good SP but one year control at $$10MM +/-), Manoah (bet on the rebound) and a couple off their prospect list? Padres cut into their SP issue for a low cost $10MM and still have $23MM left for other upgrades … more if they can dump Carpenter on them. Then extend that thought and form a deal with MILW for Burnes (1 year, $15MM) for prospects ending up with a very compelling SP staff for 2024 with still $8MM for the remaining upgrades and only Soto  is off the current offense.

If it is win now … that could work …2025 betting on the internal SP prospects replace Burnes and Kukluchi while opening up $25MM for extending Kim or a similar move. By 2025 Marsee, Pauley, Merrill at a minimum should be pressing for ML starting roles.

Not betting on a TOR deal but not because they are not truly interested.