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OFFSEASON 2023-24
#581 · December 2, 2023, 12:44 pm
If NYY are not offering any real help to the Padres for 2024 and only prospects no better than the Padres already have (and assuming no other team has a compelling offer) ... what about a 180 degree switch on a trade proposal with the NYY (focus the saved money on the needed ML SP) but seek a return of three mega upside / low level position player prospects? Even if only one delivers potential that would in the long run make the trade success.
Three names with NYY rankings:
#6 ... Lombard ... brought him up before since the Padres liked him in the 2023 draft ...went as a #1 ... had a great start in the minors ... legit 5 tool ... SS who will likely grow out to the OF ... 2023 made it to low A
#7 ... Arias ... plus SS defensively (Preller does like him some SS) with all around talent ... 2022 #1 international prospect per MLBPipeline ... 2023 in Rookie Ball.
#11 ... Mayea ... five tool OF ... DSL in 2023 ...
Not sure Preller has the luxury of waiting for them to deliver BUT if other offers don't move the needle either ... make he best organizational deal and let the future play itself out. On the NYY side ... their GM has to be on the hot seat after failing to make the playoffs with a mega payroll and being in NY just makes the pressure that much more difficult to ignore.
#582 · December 2, 2023, 1:35 pm
Related to Soto
According to Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet, the reigning American League MVP is believed to be entering the "final stretch" of negotiations and is expected to meet with "a small group of teams" in Los Angeles this weekend.
Nicholson-Smith noted that while the Los Angeles Dodgers are favored to sign Ohtani, the Chicago Cubs, Toronto Blue Jays, Los Angeles Angels and San Francisco Giants remain in the sweepstakes as well.
The field for Ohtani has already been whittled down, as ESPN's Jeff Passan reported this week that the Texas Rangers, New York Mets and Boston Red Sox turned their attention to other free agents.
#583 · December 2, 2023, 3:09 pm
So was thinking….what about a 3 team deal with Mil/NYY
Padres get Burnes…..Yankees get Soto….Brewers get prospects?
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WindsorUK
#584 · December 2, 2023, 4:07 pm
Quote from MrPadre19 on December 2, 2023, 3:09 pmSo was thinking….what about a 3 team deal with Mil/NYY
Padres get Burnes…..Yankees get Soto….Brewers get prospects?
We are on the same path with the MILW trying to lower payroll and rebuild dropping one year of Burnes at $15MM fits. They may be fine with the pitchers the NYY are suggesting in a Soto trade.
Padres end up with a TOR arm for one year (and they really need it) plus still avoid about $18MM to deploy elsewhere … then clear the $15MM for 2025.
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Maybe Preller could swing a “different” trade for Burnes … maybe a 3 way where MILW deals Burnes to SD for Cronenworth (net $8MM savings and a 2B for the future) while simultaneously dealing Adames (also 1 control year at $12MM) for prospects … so clearing in total $20MM by moving two players they will not re-sign after 2024. Turang moves to SS (his natural position) and MILW is set up the middle for years plus gains some prospects. Might throw some other mid-level prospect in every direction to make the deal balance for everyone … or just for fun.
#585 · December 2, 2023, 4:39 pm
What would it take to get Arozarena? And going into his year 29 season, is he too old for what we're doing ( given all the other old guys)?
Oh, definitely in on turning Soto into Burnes! That would be HUGE!
#586 · December 2, 2023, 5:48 pm
Quote from WindsorUK on December 2, 2023, 4:39 pmWhat would it take to get Arozarena? And going into his year 29 season, is he too old for what we're doing ( given all the other old guys)?
Oh, definitely in on turning Soto into Burnes! That would be HUGE!
Arozarena just does not fit the big Padre picture … in his 1st ARB year at about $9MM (so even more in 2025-2026) and dealing with TB is rarely a good thing … would guess the would want a couple of “prime” prospects.
Probably offense is not where they want to drop money when they need to add pitching for 2024.
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Jeremy Hill
#587 · December 2, 2023, 6:40 pm
Reading MLBTR this evening and it appears that WAS is ready to drop some money into some more veteran players. They are not happy with the progression of Kieboom at 3B and looking for a 3B.
With SD needing innings, and Niebla being the pitching whisperer, how about this trade from out of left field so to say.
Something built around Patrick Corbin for Bogaerts. Corbin did throw 180 innings last season, and is owed $35M+ this season and Bogaerts is over payed, so some money would need to be pushed around somehow. Then hope that Niebla could get Corbin back to something close to what he was.
This would allow SD to go long term with Kim a fan favorite, and keep him at SS.
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Jeremy Hill
#588 · December 3, 2023, 6:59 am
Want to go long-term with Kim, but unless you liked how Rich Hill pitched for us last year, then you're not going to like Patrick Corbin, who has led the league in losses the last 3 years, averaged over 10.5+ hits per 9 innings, gives up a ton of HRs and has had an ERA in that averages over that same period in the mid-5's. For considerably less than 35.4M and just 2024 before free agency, better off with Avila or Waldron as your #5 starter. Bogy was a bad sign long-term but puts a lot more competitiveness on the field and should bounce back from an injury-hampered season to do some good work for the Padres this year, irrespective of what position he plays.
Agree we need innings but don't think anyone is thinking Patrick Corbin as the man; Niebla can only do so much and have to look at Corbin's 2019 season and the couple of years before as way way in the past and he's not even gotten close to those levels performance in the last 4 years. I'd take a chance on Ryu for around 8-9M before making a trade for Corbin.
#589 · December 3, 2023, 7:53 am
No to Corbin … even in the Padres got him with WASH eating most of his contract … has been way too bad for way too long.
Except for Cronenworth, not ready to move any of the INF and only Croney if get a useful piece in return … at least this winter. Nothing in house ready to replace any of them and based on their contract / performance not sure anyone would deal for them and give any kind of return. Consider:
1. Bogaerts (31) … wRC+ 120 / 6.0 dWAR / 4.4 WAR … $25.5 AAV thru 2033
2. Kim (28) … wRC+ 112 / 8.4 dWAR / 4.4 WAR … $7.0 AAV thru 2024
3. Machado (31) … wRC+ 114 / 7.4 dWAR / 3.5 WAR … $31.8 AAV thru 2033
4. Cronenworth (30) … wRC+ / -5.5 dWAR / 1.0 WAR … $11.4 AAV thru 2030
Note that Bogaerts - Machado have full no trade clauses and Cronenworth has a partial no trade.
Maybe it should be Machado they trade based on his 2023 declining health / performance coupled with the highest AAV for the next decade?
Practically for 2024 need an INF and Cronenworth is the current weak link and the focus should be on trying to trade him (will not be easy given his 2023). So, if they really want to make a move they may opt to deal Kim who should get a decent return given his 4.4 WAR and being a legit SS even for only one season the salary is a real bargain and he could be a decent re-sign possibility.
Most likely the go with the current four … maybe move Cronenworth back to 2B which may help his offense … hopefully Kim to SS and Bogaerts to 1B. Then in 2025 Merrill moves in for Kim (his FA becomes too expensive on a long term deal if he repeats his 2023) unless next winter they can move Machado or Bogaerts (which they can’t).
Would any team take Machado or Bogaerts and their full contact even if they did not have to give up anything? Not likely, so expect them to be around awhile and we need to hope the have a couple of MVP type seasons to get some other team interested. Both are headed towards a Hosmer future.
Now some will say Machado was injured and will bounce back … but so was Bogaerts and could just as likely bounce back … Cronenworth could bounce back … and Kim could regress to his 2022 level …that is baseball and the projection of the future is not clear.
For me focus on Soto - Grisham - Carpenter moves to generate payroll space and then upgrades in pitching. Second tier moves could be Cronenworth - Suarez. Others are a waste of time for Preller this winter.
#590 · December 3, 2023, 8:12 am
Report is that the Mets are now in on Lee for CF … joining the NYY and SF as competitors with the Padres. Not good if you wanted Lee as a future Padre … his price will likely become significantly above the estimated contract of $50MM/ 5 years ($10MM AAV) and … as it stands … Padres will not bid over that (or maybe even that) given the payroll issue. Also, Lee has a lot of FA helium but he is coming from Korea and no guarantee he will hit ground running in 2024.
Even if they move Soto … would not put $10MM+ on Lee when you need pitching … so either stick with Grisham or move Grisham (avert another $5MM) and roll the dice on Marsee / Azocar can be better than Grisham overall.
In any combination … putting money on offense in 2024 when desperate for pitching would hurt more than help.