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OFFSEASON 2023-24

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Quote from fenn68 on December 2, 2023, 2:08 am

With a couple of reports that TOR is “interested” in Soto … took a look at need and possible Padre targets that TOR might use as trade chips.

First and foremost they NEED a LHH LF/DH to push them over the top in the AL East. Projected they only have 3 LHH in their line-up (all under .240 hitters) one being a 29 year old LF who hit under .200. Adding Soto would not only improve / balance the line-up but keep Soto away from a competitor in NYY who were near the bottom offensively in 2023 … really increase their chances. Now that they are out on Ohtani (per reports) … apparently willing to deploy big money so Soto is a realistic target.

What do they have to deal? Farm system is not too deep so that is a concern but may push them to take another bad contract in the deal (Carpenter … Grisham … Cronenworth). What they have is SP. Gausman, Barrios, Bassett, Kukluchi (L), and Manoah with top prospect Tiedemann (L) in AA but near ML ready (he is very good).

The first three are off the table. TOR would want to push Manoah (high risk after a great 2022 followed by a horrible 2023) … don’t see him as a #1 in a Soto deal. The back and forth should go around Kukluchi and Tiedeman with who else is included trying to set a balance for a multi-player deal.

Kukluchi was very good last season (in the 3-4 ERA range and had the innings) BUT at $10MM in his LAST control year. Good 2024 fit for SD but would need some strong pieces for #2-4 in the deal and not sure TOR has that depth.

Tiedeman would be someone TOR does not want to include … a MLB top prospect … upper rotation potential … close to ML ready.

For a safe immediate production go with Kukluchi … go with long term major upside go with Tiedemann … both teams have the same decision to make as contenders in 2024. The secondary piece will make all the difference and if they are not that compellling, Preller will push hard for Tiedemann … not pick up the $10MM with Kukluchi … and have to focus on other trades / FA for the SP … he will have money to deploy plus a good chance Tiedemann will impact the ML in 2024 taking on of the three open slots.

How eager is TOR for that extra offense and become the favorite in the AL East? All things considered … a TOR deal is quite possible that benefits both sides.

The initial report has the Padres asking for at least 1 of Tiedemann, Manoah or Bowden Francis. Maybe a case where they want Tiedemann or both of the other 2. Francis was good out of the bullpen last year, but his minor league numbers as a starter were a lot more pedestrian. We all know the risk vs reward story with Manoah.

Looking at their prospect lists I would guess they would also look at arms like Yosver Zulueta, Chad Dallas, and others. They could take a chance on Nate Pearson being able to stay healthy out of the bullpen. CJ Van Eyk was on a rule 5 list I looked at. He's a guy with big upside who hasn't pitched much.

Position player wise they might look at Spencer Horwitz. He's major league ready and could be useful on the strong side of a platoon at 1B/DH. Alan Roden looks like he can flat out hit and could be ready for a corner OF spot before too long.

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https://sny.tv/articles/sources-momentum-stalls-for-now-at-least-on-yankees-padres-juan-soto-talks

Momentum between the Yankees and San Diego Padres about a blockbuster Juan Soto trade has stalled, at least for now, after the sides found themselves far apart on Thursday and Friday.

According to league sources briefed on talks, San Diego was asking for pitcher Michael King, pitching prospect Drew Thorpe, and as many as four or five other prospects like Randy Vasquez and Jhony Brito. San Diego was also interested in salary relief not just for Soto but for center fielder Trent Grisham, sources say.

Jasson Dominguez and Anthony Volpe are not involved in these talks, nor are Gleyber TorresAustin Wells or Everson Pereira, per sources.

The Padres are said to believe the Yankees are acting like the only plausible suitors for Soto. The Yankees are said to be balking at moving the highly valuable King plus many others for a one-year rental and significant cash (there is no expectation that Soto will sign an extension prior to hitting free agency).

“If they think they can get a deal from another club like the one they're asking for from the Yankees, they should do it right now,” one baseball official said of the Padres.

This is not to say that talks between the sides can’t pick up again. The Padres, needing to cut payroll, are motivated to trade Soto, and the Yankees are motivated to acquire him.

Sources believe that talks centered around Clarke Schmidt, Vasquez, Brito and possibly Thorpe could get the teams closer to a deal.

Soto is the bright shiny object that a serious buyer will have a hard time resisting, even if they believe it is a one year rental.  With Toronto and possibly Boston interested in Soto, it further pushes the Yankees towards a deal.  I predict they get King but not much more than that; if they are lucky, the Padres will be able to unload Carpenter in the deal.

Mind you this is a NY Post article, but the author writes how SD and NYY can work out the details on a Soto trade.

https://nypost.com/2023/12/02/sports/the-path-to-a-yankees-juan-soto-trade-is-a-complicated-one/

But basically they suggest the following.

Soto, Crone, and Carpenter for two or three from Cortes, Clarke Schmidt, Drew Thorpe, Chase Hampton, Will Warren, Brito and Randy Vasquez. And extra pieces such as Florial and Kyle Higashioka or Ben Rortvedt might be useful, as the Padres seek inexpensive center field and catching depth.

Trading away the likes of Soto, Crone, Kim, Carpenter, and Grisham. That would save $58M+ in cash for this season, plus removing the money for Jake down the road. Although we would be removing all of the LH bats from the team.

Lets be honest, any team should be able to make the playoffs with a core trio of Machado, Tatis, and Bogaerts.

So SD would need some LHH, and need to fill LF, CF, SS or 2B, and 1B. Plus the rotation spots that are currently open. Of course the returns for trading the 5 players listed above would/could fill some of those spots. How soon could Merrill and Marsee be ready?

Plus, SD has about $12M now, plus saving $58M, giving Preller almost $70M to fill the gaps.

 

Hard to fully evaluate any trade without knowing all the players coming in return ... especially if the player billed as the #1 piece is not all that compelling (could be for a variety of reasons).

Personally not enthralled by either King or Schmidt as headliners in the deal and would have to be compelled by the others included. King is clearly effective but he is listed as the NYY #3 SP and can't see a contender moving their #3 SP with no clear options stepping in. Then add he has been a RP for years and just made 9 starts last season (yes very good starts) but also think only 2 years control. Would I want him ... yes ... is not getting him breaking the deal from Preller's view ... probably not if the other pieces are add up.

Schmidt is off a poor season ... at 28 is he still just potential and if so is that worth a lead piece in the deal.

If they are down to Hampton, Thorpe, Warren ... all very good prospects that may not be ready for 2024 as the lead pieces ... and the Padres have their own not quite ready arms ... not sure that would float my boat in a Soto deal unless nothing better shows up. The throw ins are just that to clear NYY roster space and really have no value.

Now if Preller sees clearing all that money opens up some real impact FA signings and some of the prospects can be flipped for some real impact player in trades ... yes but only if Preller is "sure" on the follow up moves.

Additionally we don't really know the organization's view on the readiness of Marsee, Pauley, or any of the internal arms ... not necessarily to full potential but are the ready enough to lengthen out a line-up with Machado, Tatis, and Bogaerts or fill the #4-5 SP slots?

A lot of unknowns and IF/THEN scenarios.

https://theathletic.com/5106021/2023/12/02/padres-juan-soto-aj-preller?source=user-shared-article

As of Friday, the Padres and New York Yankees were far apart in trade talks involving Soto and fellow outfielder Trent Grisham, whose projected $4.9 million salary Preller is attempting to shed. The Toronto Blue Jays were another team also discussing Soto with San Diego. New York can offer San Diego quantity, if not perhaps as much top-end young talent as Preller might crave. Toronto could offer more of the latter if it makes pitching prospect Ricky Tiedemann available. League sources indicated that more than a handful of other clubs already had at least inquired on Soto. It remains somewhat early in the process, although things can escalate with little warning.

 

The Padres like a group of pitching prospects who were promoted to Double-A San Antonio this summer, with an eye on having at least one or two of them in San Diego by the end of 2024. They are Ryan Bergert, Jairo Iriarte, Adam Mazur and Robby Snelling, who some evaluators believe could pitch in the majors as a 20-year-old. Similarly, team officials suggest that 20-year-old Dylan Lesko, who reached High A last season in his return from Tommy John surgery, could move more quickly than might be expected.

Quote from TucsonClip on December 2, 2023, 11:15 am

https://theathletic.com/5106021/2023/12/02/padres-juan-soto-aj-preller?source=user-shared-article

As of Friday, the Padres and New York Yankees were far apart in trade talks involving Soto and fellow outfielder Trent Grisham, whose projected $4.9 million salary Preller is attempting to shed. The Toronto Blue Jays were another team also discussing Soto with San Diego. New York can offer San Diego quantity, if not perhaps as much top-end young talent as Preller might crave. Toronto could offer more of the latter if it makes pitching prospect Ricky Tiedemann available. League sources indicated that more than a handful of other clubs already had at least inquired on Soto. It remains somewhat early in the process, although things can escalate with little warning.

 

The Padres like a group of pitching prospects who were promoted to Double-A San Antonio this summer, with an eye on having at least one or two of them in San Diego by the end of 2024. They are Ryan Bergert, Jairo Iriarte, Adam Mazur and Robby Snelling, who some evaluators believe could pitch in the majors as a 20-year-old. Similarly, team officials suggest that 20-year-old Dylan Lesko, who reached High A last season in his return from Tommy John surgery, could move more quickly than might be expected.

The idea that the Padres have multiple pitching prospects near ML ready and they like their prospects .... might that make Preller less likely to want similar arms back in a Soto trade? So, if Preller can't get a ML quality pitcher for 2024 ... might he shift focus to a potentially impactful position player for the future?

Sort of diminishes the appeal of Warren, Thorpe, and Hampton from the NYY while increasing the appeal of Lombard (A ball SS with big upside ... likely off SS as he grows with power ... think OF). Sure always never enough pitching but are we really thinking any of the NYY arms are all that high ceiling?

 

Quote from fenn68 on December 2, 2023, 12:20 pm
Quote from TucsonClip on December 2, 2023, 11:15 am

https://theathletic.com/5106021/2023/12/02/padres-juan-soto-aj-preller?source=user-shared-article

As of Friday, the Padres and New York Yankees were far apart in trade talks involving Soto and fellow outfielder Trent Grisham, whose projected $4.9 million salary Preller is attempting to shed. The Toronto Blue Jays were another team also discussing Soto with San Diego. New York can offer San Diego quantity, if not perhaps as much top-end young talent as Preller might crave. Toronto could offer more of the latter if it makes pitching prospect Ricky Tiedemann available. League sources indicated that more than a handful of other clubs already had at least inquired on Soto. It remains somewhat early in the process, although things can escalate with little warning.

 

The Padres like a group of pitching prospects who were promoted to Double-A San Antonio this summer, with an eye on having at least one or two of them in San Diego by the end of 2024. They are Ryan Bergert, Jairo Iriarte, Adam Mazur and Robby Snelling, who some evaluators believe could pitch in the majors as a 20-year-old. Similarly, team officials suggest that 20-year-old Dylan Lesko, who reached High A last season in his return from Tommy John surgery, could move more quickly than might be expected.

The idea that the Padres have multiple pitching prospects near ML ready and they like their prospects .... might that make Preller less likely to want similar arms back in a Soto trade? So, if Preller can't get a ML quality pitcher for 2024 ... might he shift focus to a potentially impactful position player for the future?

Sort of diminishes the appeal of Warren, Thorpe, and Hampton from the NYY while increasing the appeal of Lombard (A ball SS with big upside ... likely off SS as he grows with power ... think OF). Sure always never enough pitching but are we really thinking any of the NYY arms are all that high ceiling?

 

Not too excited about a NYY package unless we start getting into Dominguez. I'd rather all the hype keep going and it convinces TOR to deal Tiedemann, whom I'd prefer we target over everyone.

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