Quote from fenn68 on December 1, 2023, 3:43 pm

Well we should have a festive weekend of overlapping speculation and contradicting speculation by insiders on a potential Soto deal.

I had heard the Toronto was “interested” but no sense how far they would go … they have a good SP staff and do need a LHH LF/DH … good prospect depth … seem to have moved off Ohtani and a are poised to win the AL East.

Also heard that SEA may not be in the hunt preferring to hold on their younger, long control pitching prospects. On the other hand … Cubs seem more interested..

As for the NYY … would not rule them out as negotiations ebb and flow. Also heard that Preller was pushing Grisham in the package with Soto. NYY a pushing against dealing multiple upper level pitching prospects. One suggestion was that the Padres want included George Lombard (1st round pick 2023 out of HS) … and you guessed it … a SS who did have a very good Rookie/A ball debut (the next Tatis????).

I know it is subjective as to what is the best package … short run help with lesser upside or major upside a little longer out and since this will be a multi-player package the mix and match becomes interesting. It is Preller so could go any direction.

Could make a case to not pick up a ML SP (but not that much upside and more a bottom rotation) and go with a couple of high upside not ML ready pieces (such as Lombard) thinking from a pure talent view that is a better return. Use the $38MM from Soto/Grisham to fill the SP needs (even on shorter term deals believing the Snellings et al are on the fast track). That would leave some money on the table for upgrades offensively. Not getting a legit #3 even in return for Soto from a contender who will want to preserve pitching.

Also still in play may be that 3 way trade Soto to X … prospects to Y … legit ML SP to Padres.

Side … and this is very very unlikely but never know what is in the mind of GM/owenrs in their quest to win … if Toronto is in play the have a Top 50 SP prospect in Tiedemann (L) in AA with major upside. If Preller likes him and does not ask for much beyond him … would Toronto bite? Sounds as though Tiedeman could be in the ML in 2024 with his stuff.

 

Quote from BoosterSD on December 1, 2023, 4:12 pm

Listening to someone on XM yesterday, and they were talking Snell and how he could impact the Soto trade.

Suggesting that SEA could sign Snell, and maybe for less than another team; apparently Snell really wants to pitch in SEA his home town, that would allow SEA to be able the younger, ML ready SPs that SD wants for Soto.

Quote from fenn68 on December 1, 2023, 4:15 pm

Quote from BoosterSD on December 1, 2023, 4:12 pm

Listening to someone on XM yesterday, and they were talking Snell and how he could impact the Soto trade.

Suggesting that SEA could sign Snell, and maybe for less than another team; apparently Snell really wants to pitch in SEA his home town, that would allow SEA to be able the younger, ML ready SPs that SD wants for Soto.

Can SEA afford BOTH Snell and Soto (even for just 2024)?

Quote from WindsorUK on December 1, 2023, 4:30 pm

Which team has the better stable of pitchers to offer? Cubs, Yankees, Jays, or Mariners?

And which team has guys who will be in our rotation next year? We're in desperate need of innings RIGHT NOW.

Whilst a pitcher might have a better upside, do we prefer a guy who's ready now, since we seem to have, what 5 or 6 young guns, of our own who will be ready within the next 2 years?

 

Quote from BoosterSD on December 1, 2023, 4:42 pm

Quote from fenn68 on December 1, 2023, 4:15 pm

Quote from BoosterSD on December 1, 2023, 4:12 pm

Listening to someone on XM yesterday, and they were talking Snell and how he could impact the Soto trade.

Suggesting that SEA could sign Snell, and maybe for less than another team; apparently Snell really wants to pitch in SEA his home town, that would allow SEA to be able the younger, ML ready SPs that SD wants for Soto.

Can SEA afford BOTH Snell and Soto (even for just 2024)?

I cant remember if the talking heads touched on that much. Boras is his agent, but IF Snell tells Boras to make it work, he can do it.

Even if Snell took a smaller overall package than other teams might offer, and had them work it so it was a small amount this season, and allow them to be able to afford Soto at the same time. It could work.

Lets say Snell takes $17M this season and Soto at $33M, that would be both for $50M, I dont think SEA has that much on the books.

Quote from BoosterSD on December 1, 2023, 4:45 pm

Quote from WindsorUK on December 1, 2023, 4:30 pm

Which team has the better stable of pitchers to offer? Cubs, Yankees, Jays, or Mariners?

And which team has guys who will be in our rotation next year? We're in desperate need of innings RIGHT NOW.

Whilst a pitcher might have a better upside, do we prefer a guy who's ready now, since we seem to have, what 5 or 6 young guns, of our own who will be ready within the next 2 years?

 

Since I dont pay for any service from BA or fangraphs or the other prospect heavy websites, I usually just look at mlb.com. If you go there, under players, they have a prospect rank section. You can see the mlb's ranked top 100. They also list each teams top 30. They also have a quick blurb on each prospect, along with their scouting numbers, like a 60 power or a 55 fastball, etc..

Quote from fenn68 on December 1, 2023, 6:14 pm

Quote from BoosterSD on December 1, 2023, 4:45 pm

Quote from WindsorUK on December 1, 2023, 4:30 pm

Which team has the better stable of pitchers to offer? Cubs, Yankees, Jays, or Mariners?

And which team has guys who will be in our rotation next year? We're in desperate need of innings RIGHT NOW.

Whilst a pitcher might have a better upside, do we prefer a guy who's ready now, since we seem to have, what 5 or 6 young guns, of our own who will be ready within the next 2 years?

 

Since I dont pay for any service from BA or fangraphs or the other prospect heavy websites, I usually just look at mlb.com. If you go there, under players, they have a prospect rank section. You can see the mlb's ranked top 100. They also list each teams top 30. They also have a quick blurb on each prospect, along with their scouting numbers, like a 60 power or a 55 fastball, etc..

Yeh, I reference that a lot … but think what is up now has not been updated for 2023 performers (except for those who graduated off the prospect lists).

Gives a pretty good general view of the better vs the lesser prospects … just shouldn’t get locked into the idea that the #2 prospect is that much better than the #5 prospect … a lot has to do with how individual scouting organization view each one.

For example, Jones is the #1 prospect on the NYY list (A+ OF) but apparently the Padres do not evaluate him that highly. Lombard is #6 (in A ball) and evaluate him highly … probably would take Lombard over Jones if that where the choice. Different scouts … different opinions.

Seattle has some better ML pitchers (Woo, Miller) if they want to deal them (no guarentee) … Cubs have a couple of options but not quite ready …. NYY have some ML arms (Kay, Schmidt) who may not be as appealing as those others. TOR could toss in Manoah but is he the star from 2022 or the dud of 2023 and as I said before a very high upside AA arm in Tiedemann who could be in the ML next season. Sort of a Padres scouts call on their ranking balance with the others team wanting (or not wanting to deal them).

Also get back to if the deal is a multi player return … do they want to maximize the potential of the #1 piece (less #2-4) or get a lesser ML ready arm for #1 (and greater #2-4). It comes down to the specific players tossed in and out of the deal(s). My guess Preller is flexible enough to take either route if he thinks it is the best offer talent-wise.

Quote from fenn68 on December 2, 2023, 2:08 am

With a couple of reports that TOR is “interested” in Soto … took a look at need and possible Padre targets that TOR might use as trade chips.

First and foremost they NEED a LHH LF/DH to push them over the top in the AL East. Projected they only have 3 LHH in their line-up (all under .240 hitters) one being a 29 year old LF who hit under .200. Adding Soto would not only improve / balance the line-up but keep Soto away from a competitor in NYY who were near the bottom offensively in 2023 … really increase their chances. Now that they are out on Ohtani (per reports) … apparently willing to deploy big money so Soto is a realistic target.

What do they have to deal? Farm system is not too deep so that is a concern but may push them to take another bad contract in the deal (Carpenter … Grisham … Cronenworth). What they have is SP. Gausman, Barrios, Bassett, Kukluchi (L), and Manoah with top prospect Tiedemann (L) in AA but near ML ready (he is very good).

The first three are off the table. TOR would want to push Manoah (high risk after a great 2022 followed by a horrible 2023) … don’t see him as a #1 in a Soto deal. The back and forth should go around Kukluchi and Tiedeman with who else is included trying to set a balance for a multi-player deal.

Kukluchi was very good last season (in the 3-4 ERA range and had the innings) BUT at $10MM in his LAST control year. Good 2024 fit for SD but would need some strong pieces for #2-4 in the deal and not sure TOR has that depth.

Tiedeman would be someone TOR does not want to include … a MLB top prospect … upper rotation potential … close to ML ready.

For a safe immediate production go with Kukluchi … go with long term major upside go with Tiedemann … both teams have the same decision to make as contenders in 2024. The secondary piece will make all the difference and if they are not that compellling, Preller will push hard for Tiedemann … not pick up the $10MM with Kukluchi … and have to focus on other trades / FA for the SP … he will have money to deploy plus a good chance Tiedemann will impact the ML in 2024 taking on of the three open slots.

How eager is TOR for that extra offense and become the favorite in the AL East? All things considered … a TOR deal is quite possible that benefits both sides.

Quote from 84padres on December 2, 2023, 7:48 am

Grisham doesn't have to be included in any trade . His contract is only guaranteed if he makes the team coming out of spring training . Players cut on or before the 16th day of Spring Training are owed 30 days' termination pay (based on the prorated version of his agreed-upon salary). A player cut between the 16th day and the end of Spring Training is owed 45 days' termination pay (based on the prorated version of his agreed-upon salary).

If they are able to sign Lee I expect Grisham to be released if they can't find a trade for him .