Quote from Jeremy Hill on December 1, 2023, 9:49 am

Quote from MrPadre19 on December 1, 2023, 7:02 am

So given everything we know....Seidlers passing,the TV deal going away,the $50 mil loan,getting into copmpliance with MLB, AND the rotation issue...what are the chances if AJ doesn't get a deal that he likes...that helps thew team NOW and for the future...that we keep Soto?

0%

25%

50%

higher?

 

 

The way AJ operates he probably has dozens of irons in the fire and plans for keeping Soto or moving him. We know he checks in on everything and his plans typically don't leak.

So far it seems like everything coming out about Soto revolves around the Yankees. It's all coming from the NY media or The Athletic which is now owned by the NY Times. I'm not saying there isn't any truth to it, but I think they're playing it up for engagement at the moment.

I don't know about putting a percentage on a Soto trade. I don't think it's the foregone conclusion a lot of people are making it out to be though.

Quote from BoosterSD on December 1, 2023, 9:52 am

Quote from fenn68 on December 1, 2023, 9:32 am

That could be close to being on target.

Clearing about $44MM would allow them to sign Lee to fill one of the OF slots (speculated at a $10MM AAV) and still pursue one or two decent FA SP and some other upgrades.

 

I dont think I would sign Lee. I would roll the dice on Marsee and Azocar in CF. Then sign Profar, Cooper, and Peralta for a rotation of LF and 1B based on the pitching match up that night. Should be able to get all 3 for the same $10M that would go to Lee.

Because as you have mentioned, dont need much to replace the offense of Grisham.

Quote from fenn68 on December 1, 2023, 10:36 am

Quote from BoosterSD on December 1, 2023, 9:52 am

Quote from fenn68 on December 1, 2023, 9:32 am

That could be close to being on target.

Clearing about $44MM would allow them to sign Lee to fill one of the OF slots (speculated at a $10MM AAV) and still pursue one or two decent FA SP and some other upgrades.

 

I dont think I would sign Lee. I would roll the dice on Marsee and Azocar in CF. Then sign Profar, Cooper, and Peralta for a rotation of LF and 1B based on the pitching match up that night. Should be able to get all 3 for the same $10M that would go to Lee.

Because as you have mentioned, dont need much to replace the offense of Grisham.

Don't disagree ... sort of depends on what they need to commit to SP and then what is leftover. Also, what they get in return for Soto. If the return provides a couple of SP candidates ... less need to spend in FA on pitching and can shift to a better hitter(s) for LF/CF/DH/C to complement Marsee and Azocar et al. If the return provides a decent hitter or two (similar to the FA options) might go higher on better SP options. So, basically a complete Soto deal will set the narrative for the following moves.

Did hear a rumor that the Padres are going to be the landing spot for Lee (but rumor is just rumor). Do agree the offense does not need much even without Soto.

Just to keep us hopping .... some thought that Kim ($8MM-$2MM buyout of mutual option) in his last control year may be a trade piece ... saves money and should get a very good return (SP). Bogaert stays at SS and Croney back to 2B ... find a "cheaper" 1B option. Would not be a fan favorite move but Soto and Kim are in their walk seasons and if not signing either for 2025+ ... not out of the question. Merrill will be sitting in AAA and up in 2025 and Bogaerts to 2B with Croney traded (or back to 1B if the 2024 1B is only a one and done. All options are feasible.

Quote from fenn68 on December 1, 2023, 10:45 am

Rangers, Mets, Red Sox Reportedly Shift Focus Away From Pursuit Of Shohei Ohtani

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This could impact the Padres in two ways since these team have the money (and will) to spend to improve.

1. If stepping away from Ohtani (way too big a commitment and maybe know they are not winning the bid) do the refocus on a big bat ... think Soto ... for a lot less money on a one year deal?
2. They all want SP and if they are pivoting to pitching and have the big money to deploy ... good for Yamamoto, Snell, Montgomery ... that in turn will raise the competition for the next level down arms and all that plays against the Padres if they start the dominos effect soon.

Quote from MrPadre19 on December 1, 2023, 1:13 pm

Not sure why all the hype for Schmidt...personally not a fan.

Would rather have Hampton and Thorpe along with one of the Outfielders...Jones/Dominguez/Perreia....in that order.

Could possibly throw all the kids in the rotation...depending on how ST goes,and see what happens

Darvish

Musgrove

Snelling

Hampton

Thorpe

Although another year in the Minors for Snelling & Hampton would probably be better.

But I just don't like getting the guy who's "ready" over the guy who may have more upside...but we need arms in '24

Schmidt is already 27....and I could be totally wrong about Thorpe & Hampton.

Chance you take I guess....

 

Quote from MrPadre19 on December 1, 2023, 1:19 pm

If you take a chance and put all the kids in the rotation...with Avila,Waldron etc also in the mix....you save ALL of Soto's salary and could put it towards Ohtani.

🙂

 

Quote from BoosterSD on December 1, 2023, 1:30 pm

Quote from MrPadre19 on December 1, 2023, 1:13 pm

Not sure why all the hype for Schmidt...personally not a fan.

Would rather have Hampton and Thorpe along with one of the Outfielders...Jones/Dominguez/Perreia....in that order.

Schmidt is already 27....and I could be totally wrong about Thorpe & Hampton.

Chance you take I guess....

I think its two things. One, who will NYY give up. And two, potential v proven.

So, Schmidt is the given, and his mid 4 ERA in the AL East will improve coming west to the bigger ball parks and he threw 160 last season, so we know we can plug him in to the rotation 2024.

Say Hampton is the 2nd pitcher. In my mind he never puts on a Padre jersey, he is part of the package to get Cease. Once again, proven over potential. And Cease has two years of control and an estimated salary of $8.8M this season, less than you can get a FA for that money.

With the two trades, our rotation is now Musgrove, Cease, Darvish, Schmidt. Plus we still have about $30M to get another SP and some bench pieces. Then lets say, we trade for Burnes, instead of a free agent, then we have a rotation of Burnes, Musgrove, Cease, Darvish, Schmidt plus $15M or so for bench pieces and Sanchez.

Then suppose that Preller can get TOR to go for a Crone for Manoah deal, then you have a 6 man rotation of Burnes, Musgrove, Cease, Darvish, Schmidt, and Manoah plus the kids waiting in the wings through the 2024 season in case of injury.

With a rotation of Burnes, Musgrove, Cease, Darvish, Schmidt, and Manoah and offense, even minus Soto and Crone, we should be just fine to make the playoffs.

Quote from Jeremy Hill on December 1, 2023, 2:22 pm

Listened to Kiley McDaniel from ESPN on with Darren Smith. He said the Padres don't like Spencer Jones. He also said that they did like George Lombard a lot in the draft. His hypothetical package for Soto was Hampton, Pereira, and Lombard. He thought they might be able to swap Hampton for another pitcher based on the Yankees preferences and push for Dominguez.

They also talked about Lee and he said he's heard from some sources that think the cost could approach 100m with the posting fee factored in.

Quote from Randy Manese on December 1, 2023, 2:45 pm

Also not a Schmidt fan; if Padres have to hold out for one available Yankee pitcher want it to be Michael King.  If Yankees not willing, then pivot to Mariners who have younger arms in their rotation with more upside.  If the deal goes down with the Yankees, it should be King, Hampton and Perreia for Soto, Grisham and Carpenter and I'm not all that concerned with the other Yankees prospects acquired along King as long as we dump salary; King will be 29 in May and eligible for Free Agency in 2026.

While the Yankees could consider Soto a one-year rental they have to believe they will be in the driver's seat when the 2024 season ends.   Soto/Boras want(s) a big stage and there is hardly any stage bigger than New York plus the Yankees can afford to give him that huge contract.  In a perfect world, the Padres would keep Soto and somehow get the pitching they need to contend, but with so many teams looking for top end or even mid-rotation pitching, it's going to be tough to do that without trading Soto.  Our top pitching prospects have barely scratched AA; its not that they don't have the physical talent but might lose a lot of confidence and go backwards in their development if thrown against the best baseball players in the world too early in their careers.