Quote from fenn68 on November 30, 2023, 8:18 pm

Quote from Jeremy Hill on November 30, 2023, 6:44 pm

Quote from fenn68 on November 30, 2023, 3:40 pm

Quote from 84padres on November 30, 2023, 5:24 am

I want AJ to hold out for Dominguez . We could throw in Grish ( which NY would need to make up for Soto's questionable defense ) and get back Schmidt and a prospect .  Take the almost $ 40 mil and sign Lee for the outfield . Projected for 10 mil but will go for at least 12 or more . Take the 28 mil left and sign a decent SP and extend Kim and maybe a trade for Cease , giving up Merrill since we wouldn't need a SS with Kim extended .  An outfield of Tatis , Lee and Dominguez would set us up for years and the infield would be set except for 1B . I know Dominguez will miss a chunk of this year but I'm thinking ahead . Hopefully a couple of prospect SPs will come through in the next year or 2

That approach has a good chance of seeing NYY signing Lee for CF and maybe Bellinger for LF, Cease being traded to the LAD, all the better FA SP off the board, and no good offers from anyone for Soto.

Padres keep Soto and fail to make the playoffs with a SP staff the includes Avila, Waldron, and Groome.

Got to know when to hold and when to fold …

The media pushing the Yankees doesn't mean they're the only ones involved. AJ should absolutely set a high price and hold firm. The worst case scenario is trading Soto for guys who end up not contributing. No one should be looking to take a lesser return out of fear for what may happen with other teams and players. Keeping Soto doesn't mean Waldron, Avila and Groomer are all going to be in the rotation. That's not going to happen.

Agree that Preller is likely in talks with teams other than the NYY … some serious. The key is that at some point he needs to make the best deal on the table (from any team) and not get focused on any one player in the return. Keep in mind that any one prospect no matter how hyped still can fail.

Padres will not fill out the pitching (or any other major upgrades) until they clear payroll … basically not going to make commitments until they are sure they have the payroll space.

Wait too long to clear that space and they are limiting the options of those upgrades and players / teams make their own priority moves. Even the teams that would like to add Soto are pragmatic enough to go a different direction if they don’t see some flexibility in Preller.

I think Preller is savvy enough to know how to mix and match players in a return that meets his acceptable level of return without focusing on one player … somewhat easier if he is playing 3-6 bidders against each other.

Quote from MrPadre19 on December 1, 2023, 7:02 am

So given everything we know....Seidlers passing,the TV deal going away,the $50 mil loan,getting into copmpliance with MLB, AND the rotation issue...what are the chances if AJ doesn't get a deal that he likes...that helps thew team NOW and for the future...that we keep Soto?

0%

25%

50%

higher?

 

 

Quote from Randy Manese on December 1, 2023, 7:22 am

Old friend Reggie Lawson coming out of retirement to join the (gulp) El Paso Chihuahuas.  Was making progress from latest injuries in San Antonio then hit a wall, got frustrated, and retired.  Still only 26, maybe he goes back to San Antonio when the season starts to see if he has regained his command.  Pulling for him - a great teammate and wonderful personality.

Quote from fenn68 on December 1, 2023, 7:49 am

Quote from MrPadre19 on December 1, 2023, 7:02 am

So given everything we know....Seidlers passing,the TV deal going away,the $50 mil loan,getting into copmpliance with MLB, AND the rotation issue...what are the chances if AJ doesn't get a deal that he likes...that helps thew team NOW and for the future...that we keep Soto?

0%

25%

50%

higher?

 

 

2% Soto remains a Padre … because there is always a chance if he sees dealing Soto at the trade deadline yielding a better return while thinking he can still contend without any major payroll additions.

2023 Padres failed to make the playoffs with Soto and the Cy Young winner Snell, relief pitcher of the year Hader, and two above average SP sitting at #4 and #5 in Wacha and Lugo … bring Soto back and without the others (or equivalent replacements) might bet they will be back to 90 losses.

Never a great logic but a bad return vs no trade MAY be best for the team IF (big IF) they can smartly deploy that $33MM and based on last winter’s spending … not sure that will (can) happen.

 

 

Quote from fenn68 on December 1, 2023, 8:06 am

Quote from Randy Manese on December 1, 2023, 7:22 am

Old friend Reggie Lawson coming out of retirement to join the (gulp) El Paso Chihuahuas.  Was making progress from latest injuries in San Antonio then hit a wall, got frustrated, and retired.  Still only 26, maybe he goes back to San Antonio when the season starts to see if he has regained his command.  Pulling for him - a great teammate and wonderful personality.

Had a lot of potential … and injuries. I went back and checked … he only retired from SA in late 2022 and only missed 2023 … boy, seems he was gone a lot longer.

SA “activated” him a short time back then the Padres moved him to the EP roster … maybe to make him only subject to the ML phase of Rule 5 since he would be an easy cheap target in the minor league phase by any organization who know his past potential.

Wonder if the time off help his health? Wonder if in his return he becomes a RP?

Quote from 84padres on December 1, 2023, 8:07 am

As of right now the 2 highest paid Cincy Reds

Nick Martinez  … $26MM/2 years with opt outs (of course)

Emilio Pagán ...one-year, $8 million contract with a player option for an additional $8 million in 2025

WOW

Quote from Randy Manese on December 1, 2023, 8:22 am

Cincy overpaid for both.  One good year in last 4 (actually 5) for Pagan and at 33, he's going to be better?  Plus player option!   Not sure what role Cincy has for Martinez, however, it's high for a RP whose not a closer but okay for a full-time SP, which Martinez has not been in his 2 years with us.  I like Nick in the role he played for us but not at 13M per year.

Quote from fenn68 on December 1, 2023, 8:30 am

Padres also signed an interesting LHRP … Jayvien Sandridge (24) … to the EP roster as a minor league FA. With the only LHRP being Cosgrove, Kerr, and Morejon … there may be a real path for him to the Padres in 2024.

6’5” / 220 with a mid-90s FB and with some dominating work in A+/AA in 2022 and 2023. It appears the Reds did not want to put him on the 40 man which made him a FA.

Interesting backstory … drafted by BALT in 2018 out of HS in something like the 32nd round and really not ready for professional ball. Baltimore released him in the COVID year 2020. Then in an interesting twist from a little know rule … because he signed out of HS he could enroll in a NON Division 1 college with his college eligibility reduced by his professional time. He did and then in 2022 signed with the Reds.

His age,  size, velocity, coupled with a high K% / low BAA … even if only in A+/AA teased of potential. Will be interesting to see him in AAA but the door is open for a ML taste in 2024. Side: wonder if the Padres chose to pay him a premium to sign a minor league contract with the Padres?

Quote from BoosterSD on December 1, 2023, 9:06 am

I am going to predict a trade of Soto to the NYY, late Monday night or early Tuesday morning at the Winter Meetings next week.

Preller will send NYY Soto, Grisham, and Carpenter. Grisham actually fits their need of another LHH OFer, he will do well in Yankee Stadium power wise, and Carpenter is money transaction that lowers slightly the return to SD.

SD will get Schmidt, Hampton, Pereira or Jones, and Beeter.