Quote from fenn68 on November 30, 2023, 1:27 am

Agree the  real “return” of a Soto trade (and maybe others) is the salary avoidance that could be redeployed to reshape the roster … so to a degree the players returned could take a lot of shapes and not necessarily the most impressive current impact … although Preller will push for the best … at some point he will pull the trigger on what is on the table just so he can move on with the needed actions for the rest of the winter.

I guess this is where the two teams compromise and NYY hold on their near ML ready top prospects but agree to trade some high quality prospects from the lower minors (usually a Preller speciality). Maybe Schmidt as the lead piece then two or three “futures”.

Quote from fenn68 on November 30, 2023, 1:35 am

Nick Martinez signs with CINN … $26MM/2 years ($13MM AAV) and that again exceeds the estimate by Roster Resource of $18MM/2 years ($9MM AAV). Plus he has an opt out after year 1.

Pitching is coming off the board quickly and clearly for more than the “experts” were forecasting. If that is Martinez’ contract … should expect Lugo and Wacha to even be higher.

Preller may need to pull off the Soto deal soon if he want to deploy the money for SP lest they be signed elsewhere. Plus, in the return he has to push for at least one ML ready SP.

Quote from 84padres on November 30, 2023, 5:24 am

I want AJ to hold out for Dominguez . We could throw in Grish ( which NY would need to make up for Soto's questionable defense ) and get back Schmidt and a prospect .  Take the almost $ 40 mil and sign Lee for the outfield . Projected for 10 mil but will go for at least 12 or more . Take the 28 mil left and sign a decent SP and extend Kim and maybe a trade for Cease , giving up Merrill since we wouldn't need a SS with Kim extended .  An outfield of Tatis , Lee and Dominguez would set us up for years and the infield would be set except for 1B . I know Dominguez will miss a chunk of this year but I'm thinking ahead . Hopefully a couple of prospect SPs will come through in the next year or 2

Quote from fenn68 on November 30, 2023, 6:31 am

Quote from fenn68 on November 27, 2023, 1:20 pm

Just as a reference ... per Roster Resource:

2024 "Cash Payroll" sits at $189MM ... $11MM under the rumored $200MM target

2024 "Luxury Tax Payroll" sits at $236.7MM ... $0.3MM under the first luxury tax threshold.

Probably have to look at both to make decisions. We believe the league is putting a lot of pressure on the Padres to get their finances in order (debt service issue) but not clear the parameters of that pressure ... but should assume for now the Padres are there with no room to move.

So, need some deletes (Soto) to modify the roster to be a contender ... all others are on the bubble but should be in play. Have to wonder if Preller is trying to convince some players on guaranteed deals to waive no trade clause or willing to deal the more marketable Kim with only one year control? What is unlikely is trading prospects for veterans with greater than league minimum salaries until they clear a lot of payroll first.

Since I wrote this … have been hearing some comments that the plan is not to exceed the luxury tax threshold for the 4th consecutive year (with overage taxed at 50% which is an issue for cash flow plus the continuing degrading of draft picks for the future).

The $200MM cash payroll is consistent with that but, if valid, that luxury tax threshold would eliminate the gaming of backloading contracts for a low 2024 cash flow only.

I guess the Padres also have to look forward a bit and deal with the combo of Machado, Tatis, and Cronenworth already have a 2024 cash at $36.1MM v AAVs of $67.5MM (under by $31.4MM) … so in a few years the cash for these players will push them to a cash need of well over $67.5.  IF an inflation adjusted $200MM is the go forward level … adding the increases for Machado, Tatis, and Cronenworth to the ongoing cash draw for Bogaerts, Darvish, Musgrove, Suarez … not a position where adding any player on a long term / big money contract makes sense if you want a complete quality roster.

We may not want that scenario but have to consider that as a possibility reality. Could be why they did not exercise the option of Wacha (which given the Padres need and the cost equivalent SP are costing more seemed odd). Could be why the Padres are not yet in on signing any major FA. Could be a reason that they may trade (not extend) Kim unless they clear Soto and not add payroll for the avoided money.

Padres seem committed to maintaining a competitive top 10 payroll in MLB … so not in reality doing the traditional going cheap salary dump … but are just suffering for an over ambitious group of signings and failing to win in 2023. Time to have a renewed focus on the development of internal prospects (and adding low cost / long control via trades).

Quote from Randy Manese on November 30, 2023, 7:19 am

Quote from fenn68 on November 30, 2023, 1:35 am

Nick Martinez signs with CINN … $26MM/2 years ($13MM AAV) and that again exceeds the estimate by Roster Resource of $18MM/2 years ($9MM AAV). Plus he has an opt out after year 1.

Pitching is coming off the board quickly and clearly for more than the “experts” were forecasting. If that is Martinez’ contract … should expect Lugo and Wacha to even be higher.

Preller may need to pull off the Soto deal soon if he want to deploy the money for SP lest they be signed elsewhere. Plus, in the return he has to push for at least one ML ready SP.

 

Quote from fenn68 on November 30, 2023, 1:35 am

Nick Martinez signs with CINN … $26MM/2 years ($13MM AAV) and that again exceeds the estimate by Roster Resource of $18MM/2 years ($9MM AAV). Plus he has an opt out after year 1.

Pitching is coming off the board quickly and clearly for more than the “experts” were forecasting. If that is Martinez’ contract … should expect Lugo and Wacha to even be higher.

Preller may need to pull off the Soto deal soon if he want to deploy the money for SP lest they be signed elsewhere. Plus, in the return he has to push for at least one ML ready SP.

Not sure why the Reds went that high for Nick.  Like Roster Resource, I thought he would be lucky to get 10.5-11M and would likely get it from the Padres vice another team.  Although he's had some ground ball tendencies lately, Reds ballpark is not as pitcher friendly as PETCO so this might be a challenging place for him to pitch.  Good luck to him - he held a very prominent role with us the last 2 years.

Quote from fenn68 on November 30, 2023, 12:32 pm

Rule 5 draft is in a week ... I have moved from ignoring it since the Padres will not select anyone to how many Rule 5 picks will the Padres make?

Padres have only 31 players on the 40 man roster ... if the Soto trade (and maybe Carpenter, Grisham, or Cronenworth) a a good chance they stay at or near 31 ... don't expect they will sign 9 FA to ML contract ... no need to "save" a slot for an internal non-roster to get added at the end of ST since all of those players are still long shots for 2024.

So with 9 open slots ... will NOT select 9 but ample room to take some gambles (1, 2, ?) ... test them in ST ... return the ones who don't cut it ... all for a low test drive price. Think RP and Padres should be picking early enough to still have a shot at someone that appeals given the current options couldn't hurt.

Unlikely BUT would not rule out a position player (maybe OF) as the #5 OF if the Padres go down the path of dealing Soto and/or Grisham. Again, a test drive (and maybe insurance through ST) if can't com up with bench options through FA, trades, and the internal prospects are deemed to need more development time in the minors. Maybe a profile of plus defense at all 3 OF slots and speed to be used only in an emergency.

Quote from Jeremy Hill on November 30, 2023, 3:10 pm

Quote from fenn68 on November 30, 2023, 12:32 pm

Rule 5 draft is in a week ... I have moved from ignoring it since the Padres will not select anyone to how many Rule 5 picks will the Padres make?

Padres have only 31 players on the 40 man roster ... if the Soto trade (and maybe Carpenter, Grisham, or Cronenworth) a a good chance they stay at or near 31 ... don't expect they will sign 9 FA to ML contract ... no need to "save" a slot for an internal non-roster to get added at the end of ST since all of those players are still long shots for 2024.

So with 9 open slots ... will NOT select 9 but ample room to take some gambles (1, 2, ?) ... test them in ST ... return the ones who don't cut it ... all for a low test drive price. Think RP and Padres should be picking early enough to still have a shot at someone that appeals given the current options couldn't hurt.

Unlikely BUT would not rule out a position player (maybe OF) as the #5 OF if the Padres go down the path of dealing Soto and/or Grisham. Again, a test drive (and maybe insurance through ST) if can't com up with bench options through FA, trades, and the internal prospects are deemed to need more development time in the minors. Maybe a profile of plus defense at all 3 OF slots and speed to be used only in an emergency.

The Rule 5 draft could be slightly more exciting than usual this year. I was looking at an article about some of the best guys left unprotected. A common theme was time lost to COVID and injuries. More talent could have slipped through the cracks than usual simply because there wasn't as much time for it to be revealed.

Quote from WindsorUK on November 30, 2023, 3:25 pm

Quote from 84padres on November 30, 2023, 5:24 am

I want AJ to hold out for Dominguez . We could throw in Grish ( which NY would need to make up for Soto's questionable defense ) and get back Schmidt and a prospect .  Take the almost $ 40 mil and sign Lee for the outfield . Projected for 10 mil but will go for at least 12 or more . Take the 28 mil left and sign a decent SP and extend Kim and maybe a trade for Cease , giving up Merrill since we wouldn't need a SS with Kim extended .  An outfield of Tatis , Lee and Dominguez would set us up for years and the infield would be set except for 1B . I know Dominguez will miss a chunk of this year but I'm thinking ahead . Hopefully a couple of prospect SPs will come through in the next year or 2

You're forgetting Bogaerts, our 1B of the future?

Manny, Kim, Jake, Xander

Quote from fenn68 on November 30, 2023, 3:40 pm

Quote from 84padres on November 30, 2023, 5:24 am

I want AJ to hold out for Dominguez . We could throw in Grish ( which NY would need to make up for Soto's questionable defense ) and get back Schmidt and a prospect .  Take the almost $ 40 mil and sign Lee for the outfield . Projected for 10 mil but will go for at least 12 or more . Take the 28 mil left and sign a decent SP and extend Kim and maybe a trade for Cease , giving up Merrill since we wouldn't need a SS with Kim extended .  An outfield of Tatis , Lee and Dominguez would set us up for years and the infield would be set except for 1B . I know Dominguez will miss a chunk of this year but I'm thinking ahead . Hopefully a couple of prospect SPs will come through in the next year or 2

That approach has a good chance of seeing NYY signing Lee for CF and maybe Bellinger for LF, Cease being traded to the LAD, all the better FA SP off the board, and no good offers from anyone for Soto.

Padres keep Soto and fail to make the playoffs with a SP staff the includes Avila, Waldron, and Groome.

Got to know when to hold and when to fold …