Quote from fenn68 on November 29, 2023, 2:35 am

Quote from Randy Manese on November 28, 2023, 6:24 pm

So the issue appears to be that MLB won't allow an individual baseball team, the Padres for example, to negotiate their own TV broadcast rights.  I thought teams like the Braves, Cubs , Yankees, Dodgers and others have or have had the ability to do this for years.  Doesn't that seem against free enterprise or is it the cost of being an MLB team?

I think if MLB had its wish … all 30 teams would come under one TV package (broadcast and streaming) like the NFL where the league has full control on how to sell the rights to carriers or create its own national subscription streaming service … MLB+.

Unlikely they can ever get the teams like LAD, NYY, BOST, etc to “give up” their broadcast deals and given the money involved … unless there is some really complicated agreement across the league that preserves the “advantage” for those teams in the revenue sharing.

As it is, the days of WGN and TBS going national seem to have ended and all games are sent “out of market” are funneled through MLB.TV. So, even if SD went for its own TV deal it would be limited to its defined market … basically SD county … and that is not going to generate a lot of eyeballs (vs other cities) which in turn limits advertising money. On the other hand, that is (has been) good for SD … consider during the worst performance era of the Padres … had the LAD been able to broadcast their full slate of games in the SD market … good chance they would have picked up a lot of fans from SD to the detriment of the Padres’ revenues.

Side: MLB has nothing to do with free market operations for its teams … the league (and most of the teams) could not survive in a free market, hence, teams are really franchises of MLB and subject to the rules established by the league (in conjunction with all 30 owners). Not sure who would survive vs the big money teams if there were no common draft, standard player control / contract rules, revenue sharing, etc?

Quote from fenn68 on November 29, 2023, 3:11 am

Another factor in the debt issue … just speculation on my part … could be from the interest cost for the debt increasing. Consider the team was bought in 2012 with an equity / debit structure that fit MLB approval rules. That debt was issued at whatever interest rates were in place at the time. Just ignoring whether they issued more debt … in 2012 the interest rate was lower than now … so IF the Padres after 10 years had to rollover / refinance that original debt … they current rates are some of the highest in decades … interest cost goes up and hurts the interest coverage.

Also, again speculation, when the interest rates were really low a few years back, Padres could have pushed the envelope on issuing more debt to operate the club and if that was “short term” like many bank lines of credit … that could be a real hit to interest in this interest environment.

Could the owners put in more cash equity to retire some of the debt and fix the debit issue … sure …but that is a lot more complicated with multiple owners either agreeing to all proportionally add or alter the ownership percentage if only one adds money.

Pretty sure the Padres knew this was a coming issue and just pushed the envelope to win in 2023 (in retrospect with some unwise decisions). I do recall that Siedler was quoted early in the 2023 season that the 2023 payroll level was NOT sustainable and would likely sit near the bottom of the top 1/3rd payrolls in MLB … basically around #10 … and that turns out to be around $200MM. Texas won the World Series with a payroll un $200MM … AZ was also under … so the payroll level is not the problem  … poor decisions on players and their contracts are zinc not sure more money will improve the decision making process … if anything the availability of money for 2023 hurt the decision make process.

Quote from BoosterSD on November 29, 2023, 7:09 am

Quote from fenn68 on November 29, 2023, 3:11 am

Texas won the World Series with a payroll un $200MM … AZ was also under … so the payroll level is not the problem  … poor decisions on players and their contracts are zinc not sure more money will improve the decision making process … if anything the availability of money for 2023 hurt the decision make process.

I agree, you should easily be able to field a WS caliber team for $200-225M per season. And I agree that Preller has made some bad personnel decisions, whether it be dollar amount and/or players in general.

Did Tatis really need $320M+ to sign? Bogaerts at the time; and even more so now, seemed like a bad fit. I dont think the Crone money is bad, the decision to move him to 1B was the bad decision. Prompted by an odd fit signing. Dont really have a problem with the Machado signing. Darvish was a borderline decision, and will be fine if he stays healthy. Musgrove is fine. And I dont really have a problem with the Soto move.

And complain as much as we have about the Hosmer signing, I do think his contract was the one that made baseball take SD seriously, and got us Machado. Hosmer will hurt the next couple of seasons, but it is what it is.

Unless SD makes it far in the playoffs again, I do think this will be the last season for Preller.

Quote from BoosterSD on November 29, 2023, 7:29 am

To get back to what really matters, the product that will be on the field for the 2024 season. There are some holes, and some position changes that need to be made.

Start off with the INF, IMO Bogaerts absolutely needs to be at 1B this season. Kim needs to be at SS, and Crone needs to be back at 2B. Machado will probably need to start the season at DH. So we will need a 30-45 day stop gap for 3B in the field. Does not need to be a fantastic bat, just someone that can make the plays defensively and not be a black hole in the lineup. And the be a good bench player for the balance of the season, maybe a trade for Berti, or Segura if he is cheap enough.

OF, this is more difficult since I still love Soto. However, I dont think the dollars are there to keep him, and we need at least 3 SPs. So, RF is set with Tatis. CF I can still live with Grisham, although I could see Marsee being an acceptable replacement for the money savings. So just need a LFer, I am going to stick with my preference of Profar. Not a great bat, but the defense is good, and there is something about him and this team winning. May be one of the more important signings of the offseason.

C, bring back Sanchez. Seemed to gel with the team, had some clutch, and pair him with Campusano.

My starting 8, Profar, Marsee, Tatis, Machado, Kim, Crone, Bogaerts, Campusano with a bench of Berti, Azocar, Sanchez, a DH type, and a LHH to be determined.

I still see a Soto trade to the NYY, where they take Soto, Grisham, and Carpenter, saving SD $43M±. Soto and Grisham both fill needs for NYY, and Carpenter is to save SD some money, and lotto ticket that some of the balls that Carpenter hit last season that died in SD, are homers in NYY stadium.

For $43M should be able to address the SP needs.

Quote from fenn68 on November 29, 2023, 7:54 am

I am getting the sense because of the potential of Machado starting the season as the DH due to still recovering from his surgery they are going with Kim at 3B but unclear on how to position Bogaerts (probably back to SS) and Cronenworth (either 2B or 1B depending who they have to be the “short term” fill). Should note that we just don’t know how long (if at all) as to be kept off 3B and that may make a backfill call linger to the last moment and probably be a player that has use once he does return to 3B.

Creates case to keep Cronenworth around until all is clearer plus not selling low on him. If it is really short term … I guess Batten / Rosario can fill 2B OR if still around Carpenter can be run out there at 1B. A longer shot but possible is a test run of Merrill at 2B knowing he is being optioned as things settle. Just some scenarios that don’t require adding from the outside (and likely spend payroll space) for a short term bandage.

Also, this may improve the desire to bring Profar back who can play 1B (re the Machado issue) or LF (re the Soto issue) along with being a catalyst for the team. At this stage he should be a low cost FA. His versatility would allow him to be signed early and remain useful vs an add that is INF oriented only who may not have much value once Machado is up to full speed.

Quote from BoosterSD on November 29, 2023, 8:09 am

Quote from fenn68 on November 29, 2023, 7:54 am

Also, this may improve the desire to bring Profar back who can play 1B (re the Machado issue) or LF (re the Soto issue) along with being a catalyst for the team. At this stage he should be a low cost FA. His versatility would allow him to be signed early and remain useful vs an add that is INF oriented only who may not have much value once Machado is up to full speed.

Thats is why I would still love to get Berti, he has played 3B, SS, 2B as well as almost a 100 games in the OF, including CF. Plus he has that stolen base ability that could play well in later innings. He is less than $3M this season, and still controlled via arb for 2025, so a good bench piece.

And if NYY doesnt want Grisham, a trade of Grisham for Berti and maybe a MiL lotto pick type player would be a good trade for both SD and MIA. And save SD a little over $2M in 2024.

Quote from BoosterSD on November 29, 2023, 8:12 am

Quote from fenn68 on November 29, 2023, 7:54 am

I am getting the sense because of the potential of Machado starting the season as the DH due to still recovering from his surgery they are going with Kim at 3B but unclear on how to position Bogaerts (probably back to SS) and Cronenworth (either 2B or 1B depending who they have to be the “short term” fill). Should note that we just don’t know how long (if at all) as to be kept off 3B and that may make a backfill call linger to the last moment and probably be a player that has use once he does return to 3B.

 

They could also give Pauley a shot to start the season at 3B, while waiting for Machado to be ready to field. That would prevent an in season of change of positions. So you could start the season with Kim at SS, Crone at 2B, and Bogaerts at 1B.

Quote from fenn68 on November 29, 2023, 8:17 am

Agree the impact of keeping or trading Soto will be the toughest to navigate. Keep him … no really other significant contracts are likely to be moved this winter … so probably not the money to add quality to the 3 quality SP … and based on who is on the roster or the quality of any really low cost FA, I doubt they would have the pitching over 162 games to make the playoffs.

So, the trade of Soto and avoiding $33MM at least gives them a fighting chance to assemble a decent rotation and, maybe, a piece back in the trade.

If they are doing all this to contend, the issue moves to who is in LF … another case to return Profar as “insurance” being a known commodity then see what they have in either Marsee or Pauley (no guarantee either is ready). I would guess some of that avoided $33MM would go for a veteran LF that should not embarrass himself for one season. Other option is signing Lee (LHH) not for CF but for LF allowing Marsee / Pauley more development time and hold onto Grisham until those two are ready and shift Lee then to CF.

Tatis, Machado, Bogaerts, Kim, Campusano, Cronenworth have the talent to carry the offense … just will they given what we saw in 2023.

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Do think they have to re-sign Sanchez (baring an unrealistic demand) given the other FA C are not that impressive or too high priced for a 2nd catcher. Problem may be timing … can’t wait too long lest any other desirable C comes off the board … but Sanchez may be waiting for Snell to sign and given Snell’s success with Sanchez might try for an over expectation deal from a team that wants to keep the duo together.

Sequences, timing, alternatives, multiple needed upgrades, limited payroll all roll together to make any one decision a challenge lest messes up the other moves. Good luck Preller … and likely we will have a ton of fodder to complain about moves made and not made … at least until we make the payoffs.

 

Quote from BoosterSD on November 29, 2023, 8:41 am

Quote from fenn68 on November 29, 2023, 8:17 am

Tatis, Machado, Bogaerts, Kim, Campusano, Cronenworth have the talent to carry the offense … just will they given what we saw in 2023.

Agree, so lets say we give a pass on 2023. Tatis coming off an injury, a 1 year suspension, and a new position. Bogaerts, new town, new league, and the always looming big contract 1st season sluff (see Corey Seager in TEX).  Campusano and Machado different levels of injury. Cronenworth, new contract, new position, and probably some self added pressure to perform like a 1B power wise, even thats not really his game.

So lets say that between Machado, Bogaerts, Kim, and Cronenworth we do some sort of rotation between DH and their natural positions, no 1B for any of them, I can see all of them returning to the back of the baseball cards. Then can we live with a Carpenter/Cooper mix at 1B, and Profar in LF? I would think so.