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OFFSEASON 2023-24
#471 · November 25, 2023, 2:24 pm
Noted on MLBTR that Yamamoto's agent (Wolfe) has said that Yamamoto does NOT have a problem playing on a team with another Japanese player ... I know that has been batted around as an issue for some time. Also, he seems to have set up a pretty regimented process with first zoom sessions the the second round of in-person interviews after the Winter Meetings with a decision around Christmas.
So let us dust off some of the early speculation of the Padres being a player in his signing ... knowing the Padres really need a TOR SP and the "apparent" close relationship between Darvish and Yamamoto.
Sounds as though he will be around a $30MM AAV signing (but could be lower early and higher later if cash flow is an issue). 25 so should be heading upward vs a 31 year old and easier to justify a long term deal. Also, he should generate some strong marketing possibilities in Japan (so a bit of a cash offset to consider).
How would the Padres dance around the $200MM payroll cap. Looking at Roster Resource, the Padres are currently estimated to be at $189MM (includes Hosmer ... but is consistent with the other comment of coming down a little over $50MM and they ended 2023 at $255MM). So assume a starting point of $11MM to deploy.
Is having Yamamoto ($30MM for 7-8 year control) better that having Soto ($33MM for 1 year)? If so, must trade Soto for league minimum players (Seattle and getting Woo fits) ... use $30MM of his $33MM to sign Yamamoto for $30MM (or less in 2024 if contract is backloaded). Take the differential and add it to the $11MM and the is a pool to fill the there remaining blanks. Maybe $15-20MM ... maybe more if the can include Carpenter in the deal or choose to deal Grisham.
A 2024 rotation of Musgrove, Yamamoto, Darvish, Woo, and almost anyone would be strong for the regular season and very strong for the playoffs. The bullpen as it is should be fine ... alway find a surprise in the pen.
So, can an offense of Tatis, Machado, Kim, Bogaerts, Cronenworth, Campusano and 3 TBD for LF/CF/DH provide the offense with that pitching? Is there enough money still on the table to make three adds that are "serviceable" at the ML level or any prospects ready to step up?
Almost convincing myself that the trade Soto sign Yamamoto scenario is the best route to winning in 2024 (and for years beyond).
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Randy Manese
#472 · November 25, 2023, 2:32 pm
Add that adding Yamamoto and with Darvish plus if they add Lee with Kim ... Padres would be THE US TEAM on the Pacific Rim for all kinds of supplemental revenue.
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Randy Manese
#473 · November 26, 2023, 6:34 pm
Signing of Maeda, Gibson and Lynn probably pushes Wacha to at least 14M per season. Possible, but may not get 3 years. What about a reunion with Manaea? Started off great in 2022 for us then collapsed; did just the opposite for SF in 2023, although some of that was in the bullpen. Salary should be in the same range as Maeda, Gibson and Lynn. Was a great teammate with the Padres and at least an option if we don't have much money to spend.
#474 · November 27, 2023, 3:16 am
Quote from Randy Manese on November 26, 2023, 6:34 pmSigning of Maeda, Gibson and Lynn probably pushes Wacha to at least 14M per season. Possible, but may not get 3 years. What about a reunion with Manaea? Started off great in 2022 for us then collapsed; did just the opposite for SF in 2023, although some of that was in the bullpen. Salary should be in the same range as Maeda, Gibson and Lynn. Was a great teammate with the Padres and at least an option if we don't have much money to spend.
Probably no on Manaea … Fangraphs’ estimated contract of 2 years / $24MM ($12MM AAV) seems too steep for a team with budget issues … given he is struggling to be a bottom of the rotation arm (1.1 WAR in 2023). Note that Fangraphs was right on with Gibson and Maeda and low on Lynn and Nola.
Considering the 2023 WAR for Lugo (2.8) andWacha (2.0) … in the same age bracket as Manaea … they have a good chance of beating the estimate of $13MM AAV and getting the 2 years for Lugo and 3 years of Wacha. That too may be too steep of the Padres.
Unless they make some significant payroll reduction trades … given the number of upgrades needed … they may have to rely on (and push) some of the “near ready” prospects plus some low cost bounce back FA (as were Wacha and Lugo last year).
If they re-sign someone … think Martinez … who pushed out a 1.4 WAR and Fangraphs has him at 2 years / $18MM … less than Manaea and with better performance.
If the money is there but still limited … I would take the bulk and push hard for a legit quality #3 SP (or higher) then scramble for the #4 and #5.
Gets us back to clearing Soto ($33MM) and getting a legit ML starter in return (eg Woo) then flipping the $33MM, in part, for the one or two additional SP … that should in some format yield a playoff quality starting staff.
If we accept the $200MM target and Roster Resources estimate of payroll at $189MM post ARB decisions … only $11MM to deploy. Not a lot of room to upgrade.
#475 · November 27, 2023, 6:56 am
Looking for some "bounce back" SP candidates that can be affordable and have potential. I would look at the following options, not in any order.
Zach Plesac, still under 30. Had good success under Niebla in CLE, and after being DFA and not picked up last season, should be inexpensive.
Eric Lauer, about the same as Plesac, same age 29, not picked up by anyone, and should be a cheap flier hoping he can return to the level of a 3-5 range SP.
Chris Flexen, still under 30 and had two good seasons in SEA, before hitting some hard times.
James Paxton could be an option. Could be finally healthy, pitched 96 innings last season, after basically being out for two seasons, so a little less wear and tear on the arm. And was close to a #1 or #2 when in SEA.
Frankie Montas, IIRC, had shoulder surgery last season, IF healthy could bounce back well.
Brad Keller, Noah Syndergaard (based on what money he wants), and maybe Severino.
#476 · November 27, 2023, 7:37 am
If we trade Soto we HAVE to get at least one starter/performer for the next 3-4 years.
No way we want to lose all those guys we traded for him and have nothing to show for it in '25 and beyond.
Is Woo that guy?
Maybe,but IMO AJ is holding out for 2-3 guys he sees as every day players or he just holds.
Woo/Gonzalez/Hancock....or is that asking for too much from Seattle?
#477 · November 27, 2023, 7:38 am
STL is expected to sign Sonny Gray for 3 years / $75MM. Fangraphs estimated contract to be 3 years / $63MM … so again the market for SP is hotter than expected. Gray getting a $25MM AAV bodes well for Snell being greater.
Also, looks as though STL who wanted to add maybe 3 SP just was not going to wait around for the market to “settle” or go after the top names … went for a top offer to the next tier and signed them if they bought into it. Taking Gray and Gibson off the market fits their needs and should frustrate the other teams looking for SP but wanted the market to be cooler (cheaper).
#478 · November 27, 2023, 8:48 am
Although the Cardinals are reveling in the signing of Gray to go with Gibson and Lynn in their revamped rotation, I'm not so sure it is that much of an upgrade over their 2023 SP staff. Were Gibson and Lynn really the top of the next tier or just in the next tier (I thought middle to lower)? The total invested is 48M for 2024; if I had that kind of money, I'd have gone with Yamamoto and take my chances with what I had left vice jump on the old arms they picked up. They still talk as if they are going for him, but they have other holes and St. Louis typically is not spending like a big market team even though they have a great fan base that secures a great stream of revenue every year. Probably couldn't wait to get their lower targets signed before the price edged up any further.
#479 · November 27, 2023, 9:09 am
Quote from Randy Manese on November 27, 2023, 8:48 amAlthough the Cardinals are reveling in the signing of Gray to go with Gibson and Lynn in their revamped rotation, I'm not so sure it is that much of an upgrade over their 2023 SP staff. Were Gibson and Lynn really the top of the next tier or just in the next tier (I thought middle to lower)? The total invested is 48M for 2024; if I had that kind of money, I'd have gone with Yamamoto and take my chances with what I had left vice jump on the old arms they picked up. They still talk as if they are going for him, but they have other holes and St. Louis typically is not spending like a big market team even though they have a great fan base that secures a great stream of revenue every year. Probably couldn't wait to get their lower targets signed before the price edged up any further.
Always can debate projected WAR but on Fangraphs for FA SP:
Gray at #3
Lynn at #10
Gibson at #15
Plus short commitments … Gray 3 years and Lynn/Gibson 1 year and that does not tie them up going forward.
STL may “know” they will not out bid some of the other clubs for the bigger names … so why wait and get the best they can now before they are off the board.
#480 · November 27, 2023, 9:11 am
It appears that ATL has had discussions with CWS regarding Cease. Since it looks like he is available, and suggested arb price of $8.8M, and controlled through the 2025 season, what would it take to get him?
Would you trade Kim, Zavala, and a couple other MiL for Cease?