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OFFSEASON 2023-24
#461 · November 22, 2023, 3:36 pm
Of the teams that are rumored to be chasing Soto the Mariners do seem like the best match. If we do trade Soto I would want a proven young major league as the headliner. With or without Soto we'll be in win now mode. We can't afford to trade Soto for prospects and miss. On a team that needs a lot of pitching landing a fully controllable young starter like Woo or Miller would be a good starting point. They have some RP prospects that look to be ready like Berroa and Adcock that could make for quality secondary pieces too. Obviously I'm against trading Soto, but a pitching heavy package from the Mariners could be the best option if they do move him.
As for trading Cronenworth, I brought up the idea early in the off-season. I think we need to be realistic about what his value is though. Coming off a rough year plus with the extension kicking in he has to be looked at as a negative asset. I think we would either be looking at bad contract swaps that might fill a greater need or attaching significant value to him in a move.
#462 · November 22, 2023, 4:14 pm
Agree ... given his contract ... Cronenworth is going hard to deal and then don't expect a big return piece.
However, he is on tap for a little over $7MM this year and has that long term deal. So, moving his for little more than a player to be name later may be justified since they have Kim - Bogaerts for the middle INF and Merrill coming soon ... and for $7.3 MM should be able to get a decent 1B replacement on a short term deal.
There likely is a team in need of a 2B that remembers his All-Star work at 2B before last season and would take him if they did not have to give up much ... maybe Padres need to add a mid-range prospect but moving the money has value in shaping the team.
However, if no clean deal appears, I would move Cronenworth back to 2B (hopefully that can rebuild some value for a trade later). Also to consider ... looks as though a good chance Manny starts the season as the DH (elbow not fully healed) and Kim to 3B ... Bogaerts stays at SS ... and a need for a legit 2B and that can be Cronenworth. Easier to drop a body at 1B for the short run. So maybe not moving Cronenworth this winter is the safer play.
Agree that in any trade of Soto need to get ML pitching back ... ideally long control at league minimum for the 2024 starting rotation (bit flexible on the other pieces). Then take the avoided $33MM for Soto and hit the FA market for TWO legit ML SP on 1-3 year deals.
So effectively a well played Soto trade can yield the needed ML SP for #3-5 ... and still have some money left for Sanchez, Profar, others. Potential the "other" return pieces have some current year value at the ML level.
Woo (SP), Berroa (23, RP with major stuff, ML ready), Marlowe (LHH OF, ML ready ... sort of a Marsee, Pauley trajectory out of college, low pick, that shot up the system for a ML debut in 2024 ... power), and Ford (the young A+ catching prospect that sits in MLB Top 100 at mid 30s ... maybe a trade chip or just quality for the future). That was Schienfield's proposal ... that might work as all have a full 6 year control and are league minimum ... 3 are ML ready. The key being Woo and $33MM to reallocate for more pitching.
Padres have the offense from Machado, Tatis, Bogaerts, Kim, Campusano, hopefully Cronenworth ... with some money still on the table for additional filler bats.
#463 · November 24, 2023, 6:21 am
#464 · November 24, 2023, 8:46 am
Juan Soto Rumors: Padres Star Could Be Traded Before End of MLB Winter Meetings
Jon Morosi reported the latest for MLB Network (h/t MLB.com).
"I do believe the market for Soto is robust, and there are enough teams out there that I think a trade is not only possible, it's possible before the Winter Meetings are over. Now, it is only a one-year scenario, and that can have a way of tempering the value in the marketplace, but we're still talking about one of the best offensive players in the game."
#465 · November 24, 2023, 9:10 am
Quote from TucsonClip on November 24, 2023, 8:46 amJuan Soto Rumors: Padres Star Could Be Traded Before End of MLB Winter Meetings
Jon Morosi reported the latest for MLB Network (h/t MLB.com).
"I do believe the market for Soto is robust, and there are enough teams out there that I think a trade is not only possible, it's possible before the Winter Meetings are over. Now, it is only a one-year scenario, and that can have a way of tempering the value in the marketplace, but we're still talking about one of the best offensive players in the game."
Good to hear the sense that there is a robust market for Soto (at least speculated). Still open as to the quality of any return but if a lot of buyers the winning bid should be decent. Plus a lot of buyers does help Preller to evaluate the real current trade value with no team hiding in the bushes. Everyone will have to play now (if serious) lest they get left behind.
Deal before the end of the Winter Meetings? Really makes sense for the Padres (assuming Preller has concluded the trade of Soto is the best course of action). Getting that resolved before all the FA start getting signed by others establishes a new baseline including whomever the get in return that will be part of the 2024 roster and clarify the money available for the quality / depth of FA that can be pursued. I would argue (if the other teams cooperate) getting a deal done BEFORE the Winter Meetings is even better freeing Preller to focus on additional trades and FA signings while the other GM and the agents are all on one spot.
#466 · November 24, 2023, 11:36 am
The Seattle option for a trade partner for Soto has the potential for being the best return with an immediate impact (but no guarantee Seattle would go that route) so went back and looked at the early favorite NYY … and where they stand line-up-wise given the want to be back in the playoff picture in 2024. I think they may be very motivated (also in the Bellinger hunt but that is a long term big money deal). Their offense is almost non-existent … some big name … some big prospects … but virtually no performance in 2023 for aging players and prospect that have not developed.
Judge and Torres did hit … but after that, whew! LeMahieu and Rizzo well on the downside as age is gaining … Stanton (always injured) and hit sub-200 … then the “prospects” showed nothing Wells (C), Volpe (SS), Florial (CF), Pereira (LF).
That has to put them in the highly motivated category for Soto (and Grisham … maybe Cronenworth … and could take Carpenter). Probably not eating all 4 but some combo would benefit the Padres financially. Padres would clear a lot of money to redeploy IF they were willing to get a return of prospects that would not benefit the 2024 roster (at least to start the season).
Maybe the NYY become a back-up plan if they can’t land a deal with ML impact.
#467 · November 24, 2023, 12:10 pm
Seattle's trade of Suarez to the Diamondbacks was a head scratcher but typically DiPoto doesn't make bad trades so I think something is brewing. What if Seattle went after Soto and Ohtani? They certainly have the payroll space for one year of Soto and somehow I think Ohtani is a Seattle lean but just needs a little more push. The return for the Padres would likely be Woo or another young pitcher and probably an exchange of salary/prospects but I can see Seattle trying to pull a stunner for 1 year to try to leap over Texas and then just let Soto go to the Yankees in 2025.
#468 · November 24, 2023, 8:51 pm
Rumors of a Joey Gallo sighting and the Padres being interested in him have surfaced again. I don't think so. Why would we add an OF who hits less than Grisham and strikes out around 40% of the time? I'm sure at one time, when we were freely spending, he could have been looked as a power source but he's barely hit 20 HRs the past two years and his OBP, which used to be decent, is lucky to get to .300. Besides, he's probably looking for something in the 10-12M dollar range and even if we traded Soto, he wouldn't be the first player I'd think of to fill a power gap. Yes, he has or had a relationship with Preller, but I think those days of seeing him as a core piece of a championship team are long gone, if even there were thoughts to that affect. No thank you!
#469 · November 24, 2023, 11:50 pm
Definitely a big NO to Gallo!
#470 · November 25, 2023, 5:09 am
Quote from Randy Manese on November 24, 2023, 12:10 pmSeattle's trade of Suarez to the Diamondbacks was a head scratcher but typically DiPoto doesn't make bad trades so I think something is brewing. What if Seattle went after Soto and Ohtani? They certainly have the payroll space for one year of Soto and somehow I think Ohtani is a Seattle lean but just needs a little more push. The return for the Padres would likely be Woo or another young pitcher and probably an exchange of salary/prospects but I can see Seattle trying to pull a stunner for 1 year to try to leap over Texas and then just let Soto go to the Yankees in 2025.
One of the reported factors in moving Suarez was to start changing the offense to reduce their very high K% … add better contact hitters but pretty sure lowering the payroll was part of the logic to facilitate that move. Soto would fit that profile along with just being a flat out better hitter on an overall offense that was weak.
Additionally,DiPoto has the reputation of NOT wanting to sign FA to big money long term deals and preferring trades. Also, makes Soto on a one year deal fit since guessing Seattle (who just barely missed the playoffs) believe they can make a legit run in 2024.
Seattle has the SP … Padres need SP … this really looks like a match. Seattle probably has the payroll flexibility to take Soto’s $33MM (Roster Resource has them at about $133MM … and they have been higher in the past). Woo or Miller would be the prime return piece and SEA does have some appealing secondary prospects to fill out the trade.
But wait … could we see a bigger trade? Seattles 2B/3B situation is an issue. They added ex-Padre Urias and is listed as their 3B … but hit under .200 last year and has been lackluster since his initial time in MILW. One report had the considering moving Rojas from 2B to 3B (he is also not a great hitter). With that as the backdrop … could the Padres swing a Soto + Cronenworth trade? Cronenworth is only making about $7MM in 2024 so not a big financial burden for SEA but it does clear up a crowded middle INF in SD and a longer term questionable contact and gives SD a bit more payroll room. Maybe Padres take a short term offset contract for Cronenworth as part of the deal.
Preller and DiPoto have a lot of potential moving parts to consider … but dreaming would like to see the Padres land BOTH Woo and Miller and OK to pass on more pieces.