Quote from WindsorUK on November 21, 2023, 1:58 pm

Profar, I believe like you lot, is a no brainer! Dude just helps us win.

And if Soto is moved, bringing back Sanchez helps offset some of the power.

All for moving Cronenworth ( I really Jake but that contract....ugh) and Grisham( like Trent a lot as well but 2 years below Mendoza....????) for whatever. Just clear the money.

We desperately need starters. You move Crone and Grish, Sanchez and Profar take their spots for less money. Should leave a decent amount to spend on arms.

Quote from Jeremy Hill on November 21, 2023, 3:12 pm

Quote from fenn68 on November 21, 2023, 10:26 am

Quote from BoosterSD on November 21, 2023, 10:02 am

Ok, I went back and found an excel sheet that is tracking cash amount, not AAV, which I think that SD/MLB is using for the $200M payroll for 2024.

With the moves made, and MLBTR projected arb dollars for Soto, Grisham, and Morejon I have SD sitting just shy of $160M. Meaning they can keep Soto to start the year, and still have $40M to spend on SP and bench moves.

What moves do you make with $40M?

Usually those lists don't include the non-arb players to fill out the 26 man roster ... when I do it I come in at about $171MM (for the 26 man roster) including Soto. So, $30MM to deploy?

That is the logic that makes sense to me ... so does not include Hosmer, minor leaguers, league benefit monies, MLB bonus pool money (those total a little over $30MM) are more Luxury Tax focused and are non-discretionary so not logically in the discussion.

Can you fill out the 26 man (keeping the current bodies) with $30MM and get quality  in  3 SP, back-up catcher, 9th bat as a regular. Can they do that without trading any prime prospects? Can any of the prime prospects take some of those needed spot? In any of those combos ... can they make the playoffs?

Five adds ... $30MM ... $6MM per add? Will not get the pitching for that price, so, $30MM per SP (sum of all three) add and go minimum for a serviceable back-up catcher, 9th hitter (or rely on Carpenter rebound?).

Don't think they need to do much for the offense if they keep Soto and should put full focus on pitching. As it stands once past Musgrove and Darvish (both ended 2023 injured) they have no one I would rely on for a contending team: Avila, Waldron, Groome, Otto, Morejon for #3-5? Can one of the AA prospects make the big leap successfully (Snelling, Bergert, Iriate, Mazur)????? Would not bet on that.

 

I'm almost certain the Hosmer money is part of the calculation. All of the reports I've seen about cutting payroll reference it in a way that only makes sense if Hosmer is included.

Quote from fenn68 on November 21, 2023, 3:27 pm

Now understand Preller is not going to tip his hand on what he wants to do with the roster (other than needs pitching both starting and relief). Also think Preller is “flexible” in who he may trade vs who he may add and will move as the market dictates.

He did say he will talk with Boras some more on the future of Soto with the Padres … in a way that extension talks were still possible but he also said having Soto in his walk year could yield some very strong results (paraphrased). My interpretation is that he is not going to trade Soto just to clear the $33MM and would need a mega offer to alter that plan (at least until the trade deadline).

As for the pitching … sounded like he is again looking for the 2024 “bargains” as they got with Wacha and Lugo in 2023 … that could be interpreted as they are not going for the big dollar pitchers (or even the returns of Lugo or Wacha at $13MM). Maybe that turns into one bigger pitching contract then lower end.

 

Quote from fenn68 on November 22, 2023, 8:17 am

Took at look at the Padres top prospect that may be very near to making the ML roster (late 2024) ... and that in turn may shape some of the adds/subtractions for the 26 man this winter ... Consider the AA time for each and although jumping for AA directly to the ML is possible ... none of these prospect have had even a 1/2 season in AA. Innings for pitchers / AB for hitters:

44 (AA) / 106 (Total) ... Bergert

38 (AA) / 96 (Total) ... Mazur

29 (AA) / 90 (Total) ... Iriate

17 (AA) / 103 (Total) ... Snelling

---

187 (AA) / 466 (Total) ... Merrill

89 (AA) / 487 (Total) ... Martorella

81 (AA) / 481 (Total) ... Pauley

56 (AA) / 456 (Total) ... Marsee

______________________________________________________________________

On the surface (still dependent on the actual development of the players) is looks as though we should be prepared for a wave of talent pushing for ML roles in 2025 ... maybe some in the 2nd half f 2024 ... long shot any start 2024 in the ML. Part of that is a comment that Shildt has the approach that when he calls someone up ... he wants to keep them up ... so may let them develop in the minors those couple of extra months.

 

Quote from sportwarrior on November 22, 2023, 10:19 am

Quote from fenn68 on November 22, 2023, 8:17 am

Took at look at the Padres top prospect that may be very near to making the ML roster (late 2024) ... and that in turn may shape some of the adds/subtractions for the 26 man this winter ... Consider the AA time for each and although jumping for AA directly to the ML is possible ... none of these prospect have had even a 1/2 season in AA. Innings for pitchers / AB for hitters:

44 (AA) / 106 (Total) ... Bergert

38 (AA) / 96 (Total) ... Mazur

29 (AA) / 90 (Total) ... Iriate

17 (AA) / 103 (Total) ... Snelling

---

187 (AA) / 466 (Total) ... Merrill

89 (AA) / 487 (Total) ... Martorella

81 (AA) / 481 (Total) ... Pauley

56 (AA) / 456 (Total) ... Marsee

______________________________________________________________________

On the surface (still dependent on the actual development of the players) is looks as though we should be prepared for a wave of talent pushing for ML roles in 2025 ... maybe some in the 2nd half f 2024 ... long shot any start 2024 in the ML. Part of that is a comment that Shildt has the approach that when he calls someone up ... he wants to keep them up ... so may let them develop in the minors those couple of extra months.

 

Also worth noting that Shildt has almost certainly discussed prospect promotion philosophy with Preller and (I believe) wouldn't have made those comments had he not. Given that Preller has shown a historical proclivity toward early and often movement for prospects between ML and MiL, the comments hopefully indicates a shift in organizational philosophy.

Quote from fenn68 on November 22, 2023, 12:52 pm

Saw another speculation on what should be Soto trade (Schoenfield ... ESPN) and again with SEATTLE ... different mix from the other suggestions (forgot the reporter) but somewhat important is both had SEATTLE as the trade partner.

So, did look at SEATTLE ... what they have / what they need. Start that in 2023 they were 88 - 74 and missed the playoffs by only 2 games. They had the pitching (Padres need pitching) and some ML level SP that could be moved. Farm system is OK. However, not a good offense except for a couple of "stars". Add today they traded their 3B (Suarez) without any obvious good replacement option. Layer in that apparently prefers to add via trade and not give large FA contracts. Most reports have him seeing higher contact types.

So, maybe those Soto suggestions may at least have the right target team. I would add that I could see if Soto does not work out ... Cronenworth in a deal or think really big and make it Soto / Cronenworth.

Woo (23, RHSP) with about a half season in MLB (so 6 years control and league minimum) with an ERA just over 4 but major upside seems to be the logical #1 in the deal (would drop right in as the #3). After that each suggestion had a different mix of the 2nd-4th player in the return. One suggested use LF/CF Kelenic who is still just 23 and was a mega prospect but just getting his feet wet in MLB (decent 2023). The other suggestion (and this made little sense on the surface for the Padres) was a A+ C (Ford) ... Seattle's #2 and in the 30s on the MLB Top 100. Not logical with Salas UNLESS Preller's sees a flip to a team that is seeking catching for the future and returns another pitcher.

Pointless to debate the specifics of a return but maybe we should be considering SEATTLE as a high probability trade partner.

Quote from BoosterSD on November 22, 2023, 1:37 pm

So read a CBS article on the Red Sox, and three moves they need to make. They suggested that BOS needs middle INF help, and a "true" CFer.

What would people think about Crone and Grisham for Verdugo trade? Would save SD about $3M± and still keep a LF bat in the lineup.

Not sure I am a big Verdguo fan, and the article mentions some bothering the manager issues, but if he can play......maybe?

Quote from sportwarrior on November 22, 2023, 2:37 pm

Just Say No to Verdugo

Quote from Randy Manese on November 22, 2023, 3:33 pm

There used to be a unwritten "Rule of Thumb" that you really couldn't project success in the major leagues until a batter had at least 1000 Plate Appearances/ABs and a pitcher around 500 IP total in the minor leagues.    That "Rule" has probably been reduced by about 25% depending upon the quality of the college program a draftee may have had and the better training/coaching overall prospects now get.   If this still has any basis in reality, our prospects just really need a little more time in the higher minors (San Antonio over El Paso, please) to get a true read on what they may be capable of at the next level.

Thus, if Shildt means what he says and has Preller's agreement, then look for a stacked San Antonio team for at least 1/2 a year before guys like Merrill, Marsee, Pauley, Bergert, Mazur and even Snelling may make an appearance.  There may an exception, like Iriarte, but those will be few; even Iriarte may be sent down if Niebla can't get him to harness his stuff better.   Salas may even start back at Ft. Wayne, where he spent very little time in 2023 where he likely will be catching a few games with Lesko.  Got to let these guys grow in confidence besides skill, so I'm all for keeping them down just a little bit longer and not having to return them after promoting them.