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OFFSEASON 2023-24
#441 · November 20, 2023, 1:32 pm
Quote from fenn68 on November 20, 2023, 11:47 amQuote from Jeremy Hill on November 20, 2023, 10:48 amQuote from 3fingersplit on November 19, 2023, 6:45 pmI could see Preller making a run at Dylan Cease from the White Sox…2 years of control and 8 - 12 million a year and if you could get Lugo, Wacha back then this staff could be better than good
just a thought
Based on how AJ typically operates I could see it too. Almost all of his significant trades have been for guys with control especially in the off-season. I think he'll look for something like the Snell/Musgrove deals. Cease fits that mold. Without speculating on individual names I see the Mariners, Marlins, Brewers, Astros and Guardians all as teams with controllable pitching they could look to move.
I'll predict that between the rotation and bullpen AJ trades for multiple controllable/affordable arms. Soto stays. Grisham goes. Carpenter maybe gets tied to Grisham or sent out with a second tier prospect. Most of the budget goes to pitching, but we also make a run at Lee. AJ brings in some of these guys that are looking to come back from Japan or Korea as depth
My concern with this route is that most of the players acquired will have costly contracts (if they are good) and will require the use of some of the better Padre prospects (or some other team will trade for them). Need to know the specifics of any deal but at this point they could spend near the same money signing FA (maybe nearly as good) and keep the prospects.
As for Carpenter … could see him tied to Soto in a trade or bundled with a decent prospect to clear his contract … but not Grisham even if the return was only a PTNL. Finding a taker for Grisham (and expecting any kind of return) will already be a problem ($5MM salary for a sub-200 hitter is not all that appealing). Adding Carpenter’s $5.5MM for no additional value makes Grisham a $10.5MM player … no one is going to touch that.
Do think if they trade Soto (tied with Carpenter) and couple that salary avoidance with where they are now … they have a very big pool to bring in some quality pieces on shorter term deals while meeting the payroll target.
Side on Grisham … IF they sign Kim I could see the Padres just “giving away” Grisham to anyone who wants him to clear salary as an offset but if they don’t sign Kim … can’t see them betting on Marsee / Azocar in CF on a playoff contender in 2024 or move Tatis to CF and search for a new RF. Grisham’s future is dependent on Kim for 2024.
Salary for traded players could vary pretty greatly, but it's going to be cheaper than the open market. The Mariners as an example could trade guys that are still pre-arbitration. MLBTR is projecting Cease at 8.8m. Even backend starters and bounce back candidates are getting 10-15m in the current landscape. It would be very hard to find the same bang for your buck in free agency that might be available in trade.
I think Grisham has a bit more value than we think. Kevin Kiermaier still found 9m coming off a .650 OPS season. Margot is essentially a 12m player for this year and is said to have multiple teams interested in acquiring him. 10.5m isn't that much of a stretch. I'm not saying it's particularly likely that they could attach Carpenter to Grisham, but I don't think it's out of the realm of possibility. Even on his own I don't think it would take much of a prospect to move Carpenter. A bad team could look at it similarly to gambling on a bounce back candidate to flip at the deadline. Only this would eliminate the risk and possibly allow them to double dip if things went their way.
Soto is one of AJ's white whales. AJ has to know he's on the hot seat. There's probably even more pressure on him with Seidler gone. If AJ is going to go down I bet he'll want to do it with Soto swinging. I don't personally believe that there is really a firm 200m budget. If we were to use it as a reference point moving Grisham and Carpenter probably gives us 30-35m to work with. It would be pretty tough to find 3 starters and fill out the roster on the open market with that money. Trading for some lower cost options makes it a lot more feasible. 3 out of our 4 infield spots belong to guys on long-term deals. The 4th is one of our best and most popular players. Trading the likes of Merrill, Pauley, Martorella, Castanon and maybe some of the lower level prospects for pitching has to be a consideration.
I'm really surprised at how many people seem to want to trade Soto. I get it if you think we have to for financial reasons. There seems to be a portion of the fan base that has come to believe we'll be better off moving him regardless. I'm of the opinion that we should do everything we can to keep him around. I'm betting that AJ feels the same way.
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#442 · November 20, 2023, 1:48 pm
Quote from Jeremy Hill on November 20, 2023, 1:32 pmI'm really surprised at how many people seem to want to trade Soto. I get it if you think we have to for financial reasons. There seems to be a portion of the fan base that has come to believe we'll be better off moving him regardless. I'm of the opinion that we should do everything we can to keep him around. I'm betting that AJ feels the same way.
Put me and Mr P (I think) as two that want to hold onto Soto. Unfortunately, I think Preller sealed Soto's destiny with the Padres when he "wasted" $285M on a not needed SS.
So unless the ownership stretches the budget of $200M, I dont see anyway that SD can keep Soto and still fill holes on the roster, which we all agree is many.
As I mentioned in another post, maybe IF Preller attached about $50M± cash with Bogaerts we could convince BOS to take him back.
#443 · November 20, 2023, 2:04 pm
Absolutely!
Bogaerts is Soto from '24 onwards. Really bad signing, especially seeing as he got outplayed by Kim( Xander did well in April and September and replacement level the rest of the way)
Holding on to both Hader and Snell cost us. Preller could have gathered a few assets for each, which in turn could have helped this offseason.
He can't make the same mistake with Soto, UNLESS they think they have a legitimate shot at the WS in '24. Otherwise, do you guys really think Boras will accept anything less than half a billion for Juan? And do you honestly think we'll pay that? If you do, then yes, Soto solidifies our DH for the foreseeable future. If not, he departs after another loss season with nothing to show for it.
#444 · November 21, 2023, 10:02 am
Ok, I went back and found an excel sheet that is tracking cash amount, not AAV, which I think that SD/MLB is using for the $200M payroll for 2024.
With the moves made, and MLBTR projected arb dollars for Soto, Grisham, and Morejon I have SD sitting just shy of $160M. Meaning they can keep Soto to start the year, and still have $40M to spend on SP and bench moves.
What moves do you make with $40M?
#445 · November 21, 2023, 10:26 am
Quote from BoosterSD on November 21, 2023, 10:02 amOk, I went back and found an excel sheet that is tracking cash amount, not AAV, which I think that SD/MLB is using for the $200M payroll for 2024.
With the moves made, and MLBTR projected arb dollars for Soto, Grisham, and Morejon I have SD sitting just shy of $160M. Meaning they can keep Soto to start the year, and still have $40M to spend on SP and bench moves.
What moves do you make with $40M?
Usually those lists don't include the non-arb players to fill out the 26 man roster ... when I do it I come in at about $171MM (for the 26 man roster) including Soto. So, $30MM to deploy?
That is the logic that makes sense to me ... so does not include Hosmer, minor leaguers, league benefit monies, MLB bonus pool money (those total a little over $30MM) are more Luxury Tax focused and are non-discretionary so not logically in the discussion.
Can you fill out the 26 man (keeping the current bodies) with $30MM and get quality in 3 SP, back-up catcher, 9th bat as a regular. Can they do that without trading any prime prospects? Can any of the prime prospects take some of those needed spot? In any of those combos ... can they make the playoffs?
Five adds ... $30MM ... $6MM per add? Will not get the pitching for that price, so, $30MM per SP (sum of all three) add and go minimum for a serviceable back-up catcher, 9th hitter (or rely on Carpenter rebound?).
Don't think they need to do much for the offense if they keep Soto and should put full focus on pitching. As it stands once past Musgrove and Darvish (both ended 2023 injured) they have no one I would rely on for a contending team: Avila, Waldron, Groome, Otto, Morejon for #3-5? Can one of the AA prospects make the big leap successfully (Snelling, Bergert, Iriate, Mazur)????? Would not bet on that.
#446 · November 21, 2023, 10:43 am
Quote from fenn68 on November 21, 2023, 10:26 amQuote from BoosterSD on November 21, 2023, 10:02 amOk, I went back and found an excel sheet that is tracking cash amount, not AAV, which I think that SD/MLB is using for the $200M payroll for 2024.
With the moves made, and MLBTR projected arb dollars for Soto, Grisham, and Morejon I have SD sitting just shy of $160M. Meaning they can keep Soto to start the year, and still have $40M to spend on SP and bench moves.
What moves do you make with $40M?
Usually those lists don't include the non-arb players to fill out the 26 man roster ... when I do it I come in at about $171MM (for the 26 man roster) including Soto. So, $30MM to deploy?
That is the logic that makes sense to me ... so does not include Hosmer, minor leaguers, league benefit monies, MLB bonus pool money (those total a little over $30MM) are more Luxury Tax focused and are non-discretionary so not logically in the discussion.
Can you fill out the 26 man (keeping the current bodies) with $30MM and get quality in 3 SP, back-up catcher, 9th bat as a regular. Can they do that without trading any prime prospects? Can any of the prime prospects take some of those needed spot? In any of those combos ... can they make the playoffs?
Five adds ... $30MM ... $6MM per add? Will not get the pitching for that price, so, $30MM per SP (sum of all three) add and go minimum for a serviceable back-up catcher, 9th hitter (or rely on Carpenter rebound?).
Don't think they need to do much for the offense if they keep Soto and should put full focus on pitching. As it stands once past Musgrove and Darvish (both ended 2023 injured) they have no one I would rely on for a contending team: Avila, Waldron, Groome, Otto, Morejon for #3-5? Can one of the AA prospects make the big leap successfully (Snelling, Bergert, Iriate, Mazur)????? Would not bet on that.
I can see the $30M, and I think that with the correct terms, could bring back both Wacha and Lugo for $10M each for 2024. Thats $20M, then bring back Profar, Sanchez, and Cooper for a total of $10M between the 3. Thats the $30M, and then would need some help from either Marsee, Merrill, and/or Pauley for some bench help in the season.
Then if you want to get chirpy, could look at a trade of Crone for Manoah (if that rumor is truish) and save $6.5M±. Then take that $6.5M and some prospects and see if you can get Burnes from MIL. Maybe look into a trade of Suarez to save the balance of money.
#447 · November 21, 2023, 11:29 am
Sort of baseline for debate ... using Fangraphs' estimate of FA contracts (note they are usually good and for the two signings so far ... Nola and Lynn ... the were actually a bit lower than the final contract) ... looking a returning some Padre FA for $30MM:
- $13MM for EITHER Lugo or Wacha
- $9MM for Martinez
- $5MM for Sanchez
- <$3MM for Profar
That is the $30MM and fills the 2nd catcher and super utility (9th hitter) roles ... plus 2 of the needed 3 SP. At that point need to roll the dice on some league minimum SP filling the 5th SP role. Might be better of with BOTH Lugo and Wacha but not Profar and Martinez ... and roll the dice on a 9th hitter at minimum.
Actually, I could see the Padres in the playoffs with just adding Lugo, Wacha, Martinez, and Sanchez and holding on the rest of the roster. Then at mid-season (trade deadline) make adjustments as needed ... hopefully by then a few of the prospects are really ML ready at league minimum,
That of course really does not address the +/- of any trade moves ... eg trade Grisham but then need a CF ... trade Cronenworth but then need a 1B ... etc. Trade "prospects" sort of depends on the prospect and the return so could go a couple of was (good or bad or a non factor).
#448 · November 21, 2023, 11:36 am
Gibson signs with STL ... 1 year / $12MM ... right on Fangraph's estimate. So more support of their estimates on the Padre FA.
#449 · November 21, 2023, 11:43 am
Quote from fenn68 on November 21, 2023, 11:29 amSort of baseline for debate ... using Fangraphs' estimate of FA contracts (note they are usually good and for the two signings so far ... Nola and Lynn ... the were actually a bit lower than the final contract) ... looking a returning some Padre FA for $30MM:
- $13MM for EITHER Lugo or Wacha
- $9MM for Martinez
- $5MM for Sanchez
- <$3MM for Profar
That is the $30MM and fills the 2nd catcher and super utility (9th hitter) roles ... plus 2 of the needed 3 SP. At that point need to roll the dice on some league minimum SP filling the 5th SP role. Might be better of with BOTH Lugo and Wacha but not Profar and Martinez ... and roll the dice on a 9th hitter at minimum.
Actually, I could see the Padres in the playoffs with just adding Lugo, Wacha, Martinez, and Sanchez and holding on the rest of the roster. Then at mid-season (trade deadline) make adjustments as needed ... hopefully by then a few of the prospects are really ML ready at league minimum,
That of course really does not address the +/- of any trade moves ... eg trade Grisham but then need a CF ... trade Cronenworth but then need a 1B ... etc. Trade "prospects" sort of depends on the prospect and the return so could go a couple of was (good or bad or a non factor).
I personally see the late season hot streak in part because of the return of Profar. There may just be something about him, with this team, in the clubhouse that doesnt show up on stat sheets.
So I would focus on Lugo, Wacha, Sanchez, and Profar. Let Martinez see what he can get, then if needs be, make a trade to find the money for him.
#450 · November 21, 2023, 12:08 pm
Quote from BoosterSD on November 21, 2023, 11:43 amQuote from fenn68 on November 21, 2023, 11:29 amSort of baseline for debate ... using Fangraphs' estimate of FA contracts (note they are usually good and for the two signings so far ... Nola and Lynn ... the were actually a bit lower than the final contract) ... looking a returning some Padre FA for $30MM:
- $13MM for EITHER Lugo or Wacha
- $9MM for Martinez
- $5MM for Sanchez
- <$3MM for Profar
That is the $30MM and fills the 2nd catcher and super utility (9th hitter) roles ... plus 2 of the needed 3 SP. At that point need to roll the dice on some league minimum SP filling the 5th SP role. Might be better of with BOTH Lugo and Wacha but not Profar and Martinez ... and roll the dice on a 9th hitter at minimum.
Actually, I could see the Padres in the playoffs with just adding Lugo, Wacha, Martinez, and Sanchez and holding on the rest of the roster. Then at mid-season (trade deadline) make adjustments as needed ... hopefully by then a few of the prospects are really ML ready at league minimum,
That of course really does not address the +/- of any trade moves ... eg trade Grisham but then need a CF ... trade Cronenworth but then need a 1B ... etc. Trade "prospects" sort of depends on the prospect and the return so could go a couple of was (good or bad or a non factor).
I personally see the late season hot streak in part because of the return of Profar. There may just be something about him, with this team, in the clubhouse that doesnt show up on stat sheets.
So I would focus on Lugo, Wacha, Sanchez, and Profar. Let Martinez see what he can get, then if needs be, make a trade to find the money for him.
I could see that working ... might make that work financially (without a lot of difficulty) by moving Grisham ($4.9MM) for a prospect and bet on a CF of Marsee / Azocar to start 2024 ... offensive should not be hurt (maybe better) and do as best the can defensively.
Agree on Profar ... just seems a player that has more value than his stats would suggest. For < $3MM should be a no brainer signing especially given his versatility.