Quote from Notmyopic on November 19, 2023, 3:53 pm

Quote from fenn68 on November 19, 2023, 10:22 am

If Yamamoto comes off the board quickly … sort of isolates Snell as the best available and the combo of a lot of teams in the hunt and Boras as his agent should get him a premium deal.

What might off set that a bit is the feeling by some that Snell would take a bit less to stay on the West Coast … looking as though SEA is not in the mix (looking for hitting not pitching), clearly not OAK. Sense LAD, SF, and LAA may be prioritizing Ohtani … one should land him for BIG money but would that put the other two more poised to overpay to land Snell?

Now not my choice BUT if the Padres (who clearly need a TOR arm in the mix) trade Soto (avoid $33MM) they could approach Snell to return if they were willing to go that 7-8 years at an AAV just north of Nola. Some reports that Snell wants to be in an environment the will allow him to be his best … SD and Niebla certainly got that out of him in 2023 … so would not rule that out for the Padres who want to win in 2024 (and beyond).

No idea if the exit of Melvin and the naming of whomever factors in … and the passing of Seidler who was close to Snell. I guess if Snell dislikes Shildt that might offset some of the other advantages in a resign attempt if Shildt is the new manager (same for Flaherty or ????).

Still see the possibility of signing Snell, 3 way trade of Soto with the Padres ending up with Burnes (1 year control) and going into 2024 with a starting rotation of Snell, Burnes, Musgrove, and Darvish … then not too worried about #5 and beyond … and still be under the $200MM cap. Base offense should be fine with some money still available to tinker for a LF/DH/back-up catcher.

If they can just do that … a clear playoff contender if everyone stays healthy and a SP staff that could take them a long way in the playoffs.

I am going to be the contrarian that says he doesn’t want to resign Snell.  I would love to for 3-4 years, but he will want more than that and the second his stuff regresses even a little bit, those walks are going to kill him.  I like him, but I don’t think he will age well.

Quote from BoosterSD on November 19, 2023, 6:26 pm

Saw a potential trade scenario reading through the Sunday night chat on MLBTR.

SEA gets Soto. SD gets Kelenic, Woo or Miller, and a couple other mid/low tier prospects.

I am thinking, unless Kelenic is an above average CFer and then he is an upgrade over Grisham, dont see the fit of Kelenic for SD.

Quote from 3fingersplit on November 19, 2023, 6:45 pm

I could see Preller making a run at Dylan Cease from the White Sox…2 years of control and 8 - 12 million a year and if you could get Lugo, Wacha back then this staff could be better than good

just a thought

Quote from Randy Manese on November 19, 2023, 6:56 pm

Cease is going to cost at least 1 Top 10 prospect and other teams with good farm systems are also interested, like the Dodgers.  Cease had an off-year last year but would be at least a solid #3.   Hope we don't give up any of our Top 5 in trade.

Quote from fenn68 on November 19, 2023, 7:54 pm

Quote from BoosterSD on November 19, 2023, 6:26 pm

Saw a potential trade scenario reading through the Sunday night chat on MLBTR.

SEA gets Soto. SD gets Kelenic, Woo or Miller, and a couple other mid/low tier prospects.

I am thinking, unless Kelenic is an above average CFer and then he is an upgrade over Grisham, dont see the fit of Kelenic for SD.

Actually that may not be all that bad for the Padres … keeping in mind the Padres would also avoid $33MM where they can deploy elsewhere.

Both Miller and Woo made quality ML debuts last season … league minimums and I think 6 more control years. Not sure who has the better projection but they have the upside. Buyer’s choice I guess.

As for Kelenic … WAS a mega hitting prospect (arguable 5 tool prospect in the OF) but has not developed as hoped … had a bit of a resurgence in the ML last season, not great but passable. He would be one for the Padres’ scouts to believe he will get it together since he is still relatively young.

Sort of depends what other offers come along. Personally would prefer Woo AND Miller and pass on Kelenic (betting Marsee and Pauley can match his future). Not sure the Padres need another LHH in the prospect chain with Merrill, Pauley, Marsee, Martorella, Salas.

Quote from BoosterSD on November 20, 2023, 9:34 am

Assuming that we start Marsee in CF this season, we could look to following moves.

1. Trade Soto, Grisham, and Carpenter to NYY, SD gets Schmidt, Jones, Hampton, 2nd tier MiL SP, Saves SD approximately $44M.

2.  Trade Hampton and 2nd tier MiL SP(NYY), along with a couple of prospects to MIL for Burnes. Cost SD $15M.

3.  Trade Crone to TOR for Manoah. Bounce back for bounce back candidate. SD might have to add a prospect or two. SD saves about $6.5M.

SD would have a rotation of Burnes, Musgrove, Darvish, Schmidt, and Manoah. Position players would be Machado at 3B, Kim at SS, Bogaerts at 2B, Campusano at C, Marsee in CF, and Tatis in RF. And still have have about $35M to sign needs for the bench and open spots at LF, 1B, and DH.

Wacha-SP, 3 year deal at $40M, $10M 2024, $14 2025, $16M 2026.

Lugo-SP, 3 year deal at $40M, $10M 2024, $14 2025, $16M 2026.

Profar-LF, $3M. Sanchez-C, $3M. Brandon Belt and Garret Cooper for DH/1B each around $5M per season.

And would probably have enough to look at bringing back Martinez for the bull pen.

Quote from Jeremy Hill on November 20, 2023, 10:48 am

Quote from 3fingersplit on November 19, 2023, 6:45 pm

I could see Preller making a run at Dylan Cease from the White Sox…2 years of control and 8 - 12 million a year and if you could get Lugo, Wacha back then this staff could be better than good

just a thought

Based on how AJ typically operates I could see it too. Almost all of his significant trades have been for guys with control especially in the off-season. I think he'll look for something like the Snell/Musgrove deals. Cease fits that mold. Without speculating on individual names I see the Mariners, Marlins, Brewers, Astros and Guardians all as teams with controllable pitching they could look to move.

I'll predict that between the rotation and bullpen AJ trades for multiple controllable/affordable arms. Soto stays. Grisham goes. Carpenter maybe gets tied to Grisham or sent out with a second tier prospect. Most of the budget goes to pitching, but we also make a run at Lee. AJ brings in some of these guys that are looking to come back from Japan or Korea as depth

Quote from fenn68 on November 20, 2023, 11:47 am

Quote from Jeremy Hill on November 20, 2023, 10:48 am

Quote from 3fingersplit on November 19, 2023, 6:45 pm

I could see Preller making a run at Dylan Cease from the White Sox…2 years of control and 8 - 12 million a year and if you could get Lugo, Wacha back then this staff could be better than good

just a thought

Based on how AJ typically operates I could see it too. Almost all of his significant trades have been for guys with control especially in the off-season. I think he'll look for something like the Snell/Musgrove deals. Cease fits that mold. Without speculating on individual names I see the Mariners, Marlins, Brewers, Astros and Guardians all as teams with controllable pitching they could look to move.

I'll predict that between the rotation and bullpen AJ trades for multiple controllable/affordable arms. Soto stays. Grisham goes. Carpenter maybe gets tied to Grisham or sent out with a second tier prospect. Most of the budget goes to pitching, but we also make a run at Lee. AJ brings in some of these guys that are looking to come back from Japan or Korea as depth

My concern with this route is that most of the players acquired will have costly contracts (if they are good) and will require the use of some of the better Padre prospects (or some other team will trade for them). Need to know the specifics of any deal but at this point they could spend near the same money signing FA (maybe nearly as good) and keep the prospects.

As for Carpenter … could see him tied to Soto in a trade or bundled with a decent prospect to clear his contract … but not Grisham even if the return was only a PTNL. Finding a taker for Grisham (and expecting any kind of return) will already be a problem ($5MM salary for a sub-200 hitter is not all that appealing). Adding Carpenter’s $5.5MM for no additional value makes Grisham a $10.5MM player … no one is going to touch that.

Do think if they trade Soto (tied with Carpenter) and couple that salary avoidance with where they are now … they have a very big pool to bring in some quality pieces on shorter term deals while meeting the payroll target.

Side on Grisham … IF they sign Kim I could see the Padres just “giving away” Grisham to anyone who wants him to clear salary as an offset but if they don’t sign Kim … can’t see them betting on Marsee / Azocar in CF on a playoff contender in 2024 or move Tatis to CF and search for a new RF. Grisham’s future is dependent on Kim for 2024.

Quote from Randy Manese on November 20, 2023, 12:09 pm

Love the creativity of these potential deals, from Dusty's options to those of long-time posters, Booster SD, Jeremy Hill and, of course, Fenn.  We have bad contracts to dump, not that much money to do it unless we trade Soto and don't want to trade our top prospects after we had just rebuilt the farm system.   That is certainly challenging.

Because of the unpredictability of bullpen arms and lots of free agents that may be bench-worthy or bullpen worth both now and around the end of spring training, the focus has to laser-like on Starting Pitching.  It may cost us an arm like Bergert or Mazur and/or even a position player like Zavala or Pauley among others but if we can nail a good #2-3 pitcher with several years of control that will give time for some of the other arms in our system to show what they can do.   In my opinion, it's almost impossible to get the upgrades we need without trading Soto, so let's bite the bullet and get the best deal we can in the Winter Meetings.  Wait too long and the options for SP upgrades go away.  Let's get moving!