Quote from fenn68 on November 18, 2023, 11:44 am

Quote from BoosterSD on November 18, 2023, 11:16 am

So, my big question for 2024, is the team considering the Hosmer dead money part of the $200M?

That is a big question … and no idea. I am just guessing the $200MM is focused on the 26 man active roster (but just a guess). Cash is cash and Hosmer requires a cash outlay but so do the other CBT adjustments for pensions, league funds. Have heard the $200MM linked with about a $50MM reduction … and I think that fits better with a 2023 number without Hosmer and the other stuff but???????

Just thinking the planning process and how they might shape that $200MM … the $200MM probably is the fallout of the non-discretionary money by looking at the projected revenues subtracting all the non-discretionary (eg Homser, benefits) and the other operating costs and land on $200MM for roster payroll.

No point if giving Preller a budget that he can’t control … technically he could work trades even to move players on no trade contract so he does have some control there.

 

Quote from fenn68 on November 18, 2023, 11:57 am

Quote from Randy Manese on November 18, 2023, 11:31 am

I think you have to count it both this year and for 2025.  This is what we could be looking at with Cronenworth through 2030 if he doesn't turn it around and at least make himself tradeable.

On another front, the Korean series is over so Jung Hoo Lee is likely to be posted soon.  If the Padres can get him early, that might start the domino effect in the OF with Grisham and possibly Soto on the move.  Lee and Kim are reportedly very close.  By the way, Lee's brother in law, Woo Suk Go, the closer for the LG Twins Korean champs, may also be posted.  If we can get both, these may be sort of "under the radar" signings given everyone is looking at high end SP, Ohtani, Bellinger and the possibility of Soto being traded - Padres need to act quickly because Lee's price may go beyond what they are comfortable with if they wait too long.  I like Lee over Marsee and Pauley simply because of his years of experience with better competition and good track record over those years - very good defensively and high OBP although not much power.

Hard to estimate what Lee would cost as a FA … think I saw 5 years / $50MM as a guess (could back load if needed for 2024 cash flow). That signing would clearly signal a move of Grisham and/or Soto … but if he is your CF (and Tatis is RF) for years … does that open Preller to trade one or more of Pauley, Marsee, Bush, Zavala, or Head for pitching?

I wonder what the fact that Kim is a FA after 2024 will be considered by Lee or would the signing signal a Padres strategy to extend Kim … have Bogaerts locked in … so if they can’t deal Cronenworth does Merrill become a trade chip?

Sign Lee and that takes a chunk of money away from adding pitching … arguable the greater need.  Sort of pushes the trade of Soto to a higher priority.

Quote from dusty on November 18, 2023, 1:25 pm

Just spitballing here: a plethora of options so here we go

Option 1: Grisham traded to Jays for Manoah and Soto and Carp traded to Yankees for Jones Dominguez and Hampton. Sign Yamamoto Snell Lee Cooper and Senzel

luxury tax numbers in parenthesis

C Campy (pre arb)

1B Cooper (3.5)

2B Crone (11.4)

SS Boegarts (25.5)

3B Kim (7)

LF Senzel (2)

CF Lee (10)

RF Tatis (24.3)

DH Manny - until elbow is good (31.8)

Bench

Sullivan (Pre Arb)

Profar (3)

Marcano (Pre Arb)

Batten/Rosario (Pre Arb)

Azocar (Pre Arb)

Rotation

Snell (27)

Musgrove (20)

Yamamoto (26)

Darvish (18)

Manoah (Pre Arb)

Morejon -as 6th rotation arm/long reliever (.9)

Bullpen

Suarez (9.2)

Wilson (pre arb)

Cosgrove (pre arb)

De Los Santos (1.2)

Estrada (Pre Arb)

Gillaspie (Pre Arb)

About 14.8 in pre arb costs (fangraphs) and then 12.9 to hosmer (fangraphs)

235 million luxury tax payroll without hosmer

248.5 including hosmer

Option 2:

Grisham to Jays for Manoah

Kim to Brewers for Burnes

Sign one of Snell/Yamamoto

Sign Cooper

Sign Senzel

Would like to sign Lee but not sure if possible under this option

C Campy (pre arb)

1B Cooper (3.5)

2B Crone (11.4)

SS Boegarts (25.5)

3B Senzel (2)

LF Soto (33)

CF Marsee (pre arb)

RF Tatis (24.3)

DH Manny - until elbow is good (31.8)

Bench

Sullivan (Pre Arb)

Carpenter (6)

Marcano (Pre Arb)

Batten/Rosario (Pre Arb)

Azocar (Pre Arb)

Rotation

Snell/Yamamoto (27)

Burnes (13)

Musgrove (20)

Darvish (18)

Manoah (Pre Arb)

Morejon -as 6th rotation arm/long reliever (.9)

Bullpen

Suarez (9.2)

Wilson (pre arb)

Cosgrove (pre arb)

De Los Santos (1.2)

Estrada (Pre Arb)

Gillaspie (Pre Arb)

About 14.8 in pre arb costs (fangraphs) and then 12.9 to hosmer (fangraphs)

241.6 without hosmer 254.5 with hosmer.

Not sure if this is actually realistic or not or if Preller and the Padres would be able to make that work but clearly a lot of work for Preller to do and a lot of creativity ahead of us to make it work

Quote from Randy Manese on November 18, 2023, 2:14 pm

I think the ceiling for Lee is 5 years and 50M.  If he had shown consistent power or superior speed on the bases, it would be much higher.  He would be a complementary piece for our corps group of superstars but would be counted on for a lot more if more money is involved.  So, I think we have a chance for Lee and I do believe that there is some way we are going to extend Kim - he should have been right in the mix for the Heart and Hustle Award!

Quote from fenn68 on November 19, 2023, 9:09 am

Report that Nola re-signs with PHIL for 7 years / $172MM ($24.6MM AAV) … bit lower than most expected but maybe a stay at home discount?

Could impact Snell and the others both ways (up or down) … one major piece off the table for SP (supply down price up?) or does the “lower” AAV pull others down. Would not ignore the 7 year deal (quite long for a SP) being a factor in keeping the AAV down.

Quote from fenn68 on November 19, 2023, 9:23 am

Looking at Snell vs Nola … both basically the same age … 2023 was great for Snell but not so much for Nola … career Snell better ERA by a bit BUT Nola gives that consistent 180+ innings … both are elite … so going to be interesting how other teams chase down Snell (considering Boras is the agent).

Get the feeling that 7 years may be the baseline they argue for (maybe try for more) and a better AAV coming off the Cy Young as a selling point. Boras will push for $200MM and if for 7 years just under a $29MM AAV.

I would not go that far with Snell … and even less enthralled given the existing big long term commitments by the Padres.

Quote from Randy Manese on November 19, 2023, 9:55 am

Well, I almost got it right on 11 November!  I had Nola signing the first 25M or more per year (actual 24.571) contract but going to the Cardinals instead of staying with the Phillies.  Maybe only a couple more at 25M or more so my next signee is Yamamoto with the New York Mets - lock it in!  Don't think either Snell or Bellinger get to 25M or more.  Ohtani for sure but unlikely to sign before the New Year, in my opinion.

Quote from fenn68 on November 19, 2023, 10:22 am

If Yamamoto comes off the board quickly … sort of isolates Snell as the best available and the combo of a lot of teams in the hunt and Boras as his agent should get him a premium deal.

What might off set that a bit is the feeling by some that Snell would take a bit less to stay on the West Coast … looking as though SEA is not in the mix (looking for hitting not pitching), clearly not OAK. Sense LAD, SF, and LAA may be prioritizing Ohtani … one should land him for BIG money but would that put the other two more poised to overpay to land Snell?

Now not my choice BUT if the Padres (who clearly need a TOR arm in the mix) trade Soto (avoid $33MM) they could approach Snell to return if they were willing to go that 7-8 years at an AAV just north of Nola. Some reports that Snell wants to be in an environment the will allow him to be his best … SD and Niebla certainly got that out of him in 2023 … so would not rule that out for the Padres who want to win in 2024 (and beyond).

No idea if the exit of Melvin and the naming of whomever factors in … and the passing of Seidler who was close to Snell. I guess if Snell dislikes Shildt that might offset some of the other advantages in a resign attempt if Shildt is the new manager (same for Flaherty or ????).

Still see the possibility of signing Snell, 3 way trade of Soto with the Padres ending up with Burnes (1 year control) and going into 2024 with a starting rotation of Snell, Burnes, Musgrove, and Darvish … then not too worried about #5 and beyond … and still be under the $200MM cap. Base offense should be fine with some money still available to tinker for a LF/DH/back-up catcher.

If they can just do that … a clear playoff contender if everyone stays healthy and a SP staff that could take them a long way in the playoffs.

Quote from Randy Manese on November 19, 2023, 10:52 am

I would totally buy into that scenario; let's see how close to this Preller can come.