Quote from fenn68 on November 17, 2023, 5:27 pm

Padres non-tender Nola, Hill, Kohlway, and Espada … knock another $5MMish off the payroll and the “under” position is up to about $30MM.

Roster has a lot of room. So, should see a lot of minor adds along with any bigger moves.

Quote from fenn68 on November 17, 2023, 5:34 pm

Random thought … up until now there seemed to be a lot of collaboration between Preller and Seidler that may have shaped some of the roster moves.

Is it possible with Kutsenda (who does not have the same baseball background) he has told Preller here is the budget … no room for debate … and it is totally up to you to build the roster … and in turn Preller will be making “different” decisions on roster moves? He could sense given no close relationship with Kutsenda … this may be get it right or your out?

Quote from Randy Manese on November 17, 2023, 6:42 pm

With De los Santos, Estrada, Gillaspie and possibly Iriarte added to the SD bullpen, we added a lot of high velocity to go with Suarez and Wilson from the right side.  Not much to pair with Cosgrove from the left side, but maybe Kerr, Morejon and/or Groome can contribute - I'd be looking for at least one other dependable LH RP.  Starting pitching, of course, will be the target so let's see what Preller can do with a limited budget.  Just hope he doesn't trade all our top prospects!

Quote from fenn68 on November 18, 2023, 5:26 am

Well the Padres are now sitting with only 31 on the 40 man … and if my logic of the $200MM budget applies to the 26 man ML roster only they have about $30MM to deploy.

Preller can go a lot of different directions in this case.

One thought is since the Padres need as many arms in the ST mix for SP/RP … we may see a Rule 5 pick this year … fair chance they can find someone that can challenge the likes of Estrada, Gillespie, Reynolds, Otto, et al and give a bit of insurance in case of injuries. If he does not just send him back.

Next, with all the open slots … keeping some open will make it easier to add a non-roster player at the end of ST … be it an internal (eg Marsee, Pauley) or a veteran signed to a non-roster, make good minor league deal as a low cost add (eg Wade). Actually could use those open slots to entice a lower end FA to sign with the Padres with a ML roster slot incentive.

Good chance the Padres have formulated an opinion on any internal players that legitmately have a chance to break into the opening day 26 (vs maybe a mid season call-up) plus now know the potential Rule 5 targets with rosters set … that should help.

Quote from 84padres on November 18, 2023, 5:56 am

Quote from fenn68 on November 17, 2023, 5:09 pm

MILW non-tenders Woodruff … a chance for the 2 year contract from the Padres?

Seem like the 2 year healing contracts don't work out for us , see Garrett Richards . Plus I don't think we are able to take a large monetary gamble at this time .

Quote from fenn68 on November 18, 2023, 6:04 am

Now we should be turning to a critical path on how to best upgrade three SP slots while maintaining a contending line-up from the rest of the 26 man. At this point I am assuming they have that $30MM to use and have Soto in LF.

One point of debate should be one major SP add for $25-30MM (eg Snell, Yamamoto) given them a very strong #1-3 but scrambling for the remaining SP OR go for two good SP (eg Lugo, Wacha level) to make a reliable #1-4 and only scramble for one more. Not sure I want to rely on Avila, Waldron, Groome, Otto, or Morejon to fill any of the SP slots when you want to get out of the gates quickly to contend.

Second point of debate would the offense still be contender quality without Soto (and a “decent” backfill) … and using the $33MM due Soto to further improve the SP. Basically with the extra payroll flexibility could really go big and sign BOTH Snell and Yamamoto making for a dominate #1-4 .. for years. One could make the case that Machado, Tatis, Cronenworth all should rebound from off 2023 and maybe Pauley or Marsee can provide adequate backfill for Soto. Would be the remaining offense with the better (dominate) SP make a better TEAM?

Then there may be a question of committing to another major long term deal (required for a Snell, Yamamoto type). That may lead to the the Lugo, Wacha type adds (basically 2-3 year deals) and keep Soto OR also trade SOTO and and another Lugo level SP and have still a lot of money for adding a two upgrade bats (one LF) and maybe stalk some more established RP.

Have to not focus on any one specific player and basically make the calls based on the best 26 man roster for making the playoffs and going deep in the playoffs.

Quote from Randy Manese on November 18, 2023, 9:47 am

If we assume we still have Soto in LF, then we are essentially done with any offensive upgrades.  Must move Bogaerts to 1b and have potentially holes in the line-up (based on last year's performance) with Grisham, Cronenworth and Carpenter and little money to spend on an experienced back-up catcher.  Maybe everyone who was injured (which I think was a major link to underperformance) is fully recovered and has years that we expect them to have - that would be the best case scenario but is that realistic?  Lack of a deep bench really hurt the team and not sure Marsee, Pauley and don't forget Merrill are ready to step up.

Also, the bidding for Yamamoto will be fierce with both New York teams ready to pounce on him.  Unless he really wants to come to San Diego, I don't see him landing here for maybe a little less or the same money.  Snell is different - lot of teams will look back at the last 2 years before this one and see Snell as a high risk signee.  He might actually get less money than what is rumored and for that reason could re-sign with San Diego; we know he loves the city and was close with Seidler.  How about a 1-2 year contract to give San Diego one more try for a championship and to raise the salary to what he really wants it to be?

I'm on the "trade Soto" (and others) side because of the holes we have in both SP and the bench.  We need a more well-rounded team and can't get there with Cronenworth back at 1b (if Bogaerts doesn't want to move), Grisham in CF and having Carpenter as the primary DH.  I won't rule out a reunion with Martinez because he's going to find his asking price is too high for most teams given his less than dominant performance as a SP and his age that precludes a long-term contract.  I'd like to have enough money to re-sign Sanchez and Profar to solidify our bench but they'll have to come back on team friendly terms.  Lots of work to do and many paths to choose so Preller has to be at his best with more trades like the ones for Snell and Darvish and less trades like the ones for Nola and Clevinger.

Quote from fenn68 on November 18, 2023, 10:55 am

Hard to guess Preller’s thinking … and even harder to pick the minds of other teams and FA and one idea that does not hold up likely creates a domino effect on all the other ideas … we are going have to be very flexible in the moves needed to contend.

I see the budget limit as pretty firm and the current 26 man roster not playoff quality over a 162 game schedule given the lack of pitching and the likelihood of injuries. Then do think the plan is to contend in 2024 … unsure about trying to do that without creating a further long term issue with major contracts.

With all the needs a bit concerned that waiting until the ask drops by FA or other teams boost their trade offers (eg Jan-Feb) could be a disaster IF the FA don’t drop and sign elsewhere and other teams “go a different direction”. Could end up with this roster only augmented by the “leftovers” and not really capable of contention. At least to fill some of the needs … the Padres have to land some upgrades by the end of the Winter Meetings … at least one (if not two) SP given virtually every teams is in the hunt for SP. Agents see that and prices will not come down until near the start of ST

That all should put more focus on the internal prospects and the best prospects are more AA level and would think are more 2025 vs 2024. No idea if the Padres can project and gamble on one or more starting the season on the roster … Marsee? Pauley? Snelling? Bergert? … at least productive enough so as not to throw any money on mediocre FA. However, this is Preller and, to win now, might just use some of the prospects in trades … I guess that evaluation depends on specifics of the trade.

With all that … think they have to deal Soto and gain something in the return plus the added payroll flexibility to bring on multiple upgrades. Hope they make a deal before the Winter Meetings so Preller can go full bore seeking additional trades and working the FA agents.

 

Quote from BoosterSD on November 18, 2023, 11:16 am

So, my big question for 2024, is the team considering the Hosmer dead money part of the $200M?