Quote from BoosterSD on August 30, 2023, 9:45 am

Quote from fenn68 on August 30, 2023, 9:17 am

I will toss in another ... albeit long shot ... scenario. Move Kim to CF ... Melvin has said that Kim has the skills to be in CF (OF) as a plus OF and it does not appear that position shifts has a major impact on Kim's bat. Considering continuing with Grisham and his dismal offense just does not seem justifiable and finding quality CF (at a reasonable price) is difficult and Padres have higher priorities ... Kim to CF with Merrill to SS might really uplift the team (and the future). Also would strengthen the logic to give Kim an extension beyond 2024. Padres are still a long way off (if they actually develop) before seeing if Marsee, Zavala, or Head will be ML CF better than Kim. Locking down an upgrade in CF and then adding the best upgrade they can afford for the 9th bat would be "easier" given it could be an corner OF or INF. (side: if CF does not work out ... and they move Soto ... LF would work and the Padres really have no OF help in system near term ... at least they can count on to develop).

I agree that a move to CF for Kim could be fantastic for SD. He has hustle, speed, and a great baseball mind. And as we have both mentioned, he seems to be unaffected by position change.

Of course, the wild card could be the Korean CFer Jung Hoo Lee signing with SD to play with Kim. I would imagine the OF defense of Kim (LF), Lee (CF), and Tatis (RF) would be fairly fantastic. Azocar and Gamel (or similar) should be fine for OF back up.

And Lee should be a lot cheaper than Soto, allowing SD to move Soto and reuse those dollars to sign SP.

Quote from BoosterSD on August 30, 2023, 9:56 am

Although should SD keep Soto, I still think a move of Kim to LF and Soto to DH would be better for wins. Soto has not been a DH a lot; however, his limited numbers at DH suggest success in that position.

Soto as DH .323 BA, .544 OBP, .677 SLG 1.221 OPS.

And if they can bring back Sanchez, along with Campusano, the only hole in the line up is really Grisham, and with his defense, I can live with that as long as the others return to their baseball card numbers. Which has really been the issue this season. Grisham is actually better this season than last, so while not great, not really the issue with the 2023 IMO.

Should the big money guys get back to career norms, how would this line up look

1. Kim (R), 2. Merril (L), 3. Machado (R), 4. Soto (L), 5. Tatis (R), 6. Bogaerts (R), 7. Crone (L), Campusano/Sanchez (R), Grisham (L).

 

Quote from fenn68 on August 30, 2023, 12:24 pm

Quote from BoosterSD on August 30, 2023, 9:56 am

Although should SD keep Soto, I still think a move of Kim to LF and Soto to DH would be better for wins. Soto has not been a DH a lot; however, his limited numbers at DH suggest success in that position.

Soto as DH .323 BA, .544 OBP, .677 SLG 1.221 OPS.

And if they can bring back Sanchez, along with Campusano, the only hole in the line up is really Grisham, and with his defense, I can live with that as long as the others return to their baseball card numbers. Which has really been the issue this season. Grisham is actually better this season than last, so while not great, not really the issue with the 2023 IMO.

Should the big money guys get back to career norms, how would this line up look

1. Kim (R), 2. Merril (L), 3. Machado (R), 4. Soto (L), 5. Tatis (R), 6. Bogaerts (R), 7. Crone (L), Campusano/Sanchez (R), Grisham (L).

 

Is not that what we have been saying all season? Has not happened. Even if it does … no pitching staff losing Snell, Lugo, and Hader and the other old guys getting older.

Sort of:

If Tatis - Machado - Bogaerts - Cronenworth return to expectations … don’t really need Soto’s bat and better off putting the money on pitching

If Tatis - Machado - Bogaerts - Cronenworth don’t return to expectations … Soto’s bat will not make a difference (see 2023) while still be deficient in pitching.

Soto is the moving part so has to go to fund pitching and filling out the 26 man roster.

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side: if I read the graphic put up on today’s ballgame … the Padres have the OLDEST pitching staff in MLB and Musgrove, Darvish, Suarez are on long term deals and as far as I can tell will get older. Maybe a case … as they focus on pitching to NOT pursue a long term deal with Snell (30+/-) and shift to Yamamoto (25) or shorter term deals with “lesser” pitching options until the internal prospects arrive. As it is in 4-5 years the Padres will have 1/4 of their team (pitchers / position players) in wheelchairs … or spending long spells on the IL … or just with diminished performance … but on guaranteed contracts.

Quote from fenn68 on September 1, 2023, 1:08 pm

A forward look at the SP decisions … based on 2023 performances (all good for the SP):

1. Snell (31 next season) … 2.60 ERA / 149 innings … Cy Young candidate … FA. Will be seeking a contract in excess of Rodon’s from the NYY last winter (who ended up injured again and fizzled out this year). Rodon got 6 years (age 30) for $162MM ($27 MM AAV). Snell 6 years / $180MM ($30MM AAV)? Someone will pay it.

2. Wacha (33 next season) … 2.84 ERA / 101 innings … second strong year in a row … Club option for 2 years at $16MM per year / Player option for 3 years at about $6MM per year. With his 2022-23 performance he will clearly decline the Player Option. So big question to the Padres … take the Club options given Wacha injury history and for the analytical types having poor peripherals? Do they really have a choice but to accept the Club option?

3. Musgrove (31 next season) … 3.05 ERA / 97 innings … under contract for 4 more years at $20MM per year. Issue with shoulder injury into 2024?

4. Lugo (34 next season) … 3.67 ERA / 115 innings … Player Option for 1 year at $7.5MM … will opt out and should do better (dollars and maybe a guaranteed 2nd year) as a FA … will not do worse.

5. Darvish (37 next season) … 4.56 ERA / 136 innings … under contract for 5 more years with a $18MM AAV. Issues being elbow injury and declining production as he enters his late 30s.

6. No real impact SP in the system ready for 2024 … if you want a contending club.

The base is Musgrove / Darvish … both injured and both getting older while under longer term control. Clear FA are Snell who will require a big, long term deal taking him in to his mid-late 30s and Lugo who will get a very good FA deal in AAV/yrs while already being older. Makes an aging Wacha the challenging internal call.

If not these guys resigned … the FA market really is not much better (or.cheaper) … so IF the Padre want to contend, one way or the other, a lot of money has to be funneled towards SP.

 

Quote from fenn68 on September 3, 2023, 4:43 am

MLBTrandeRumors put up a very nice .. long … piece focusing on Kim … very positive.

First, it is unusual that a national media type takes the time to find Kim (not the highest profile guy) in SD among all the big name stars and rate him with some of the bigger stars of the game.

Great recognition for Kim (he deserves it for his 2023) but magnitude of his production will present a more difficult set of decisions starting this winter.

Kim and Soto are FA after 2024. Kim has positioned himself for a much larger contract that previously expected … at his age probably at least a 7 year deal and “could” push $20MM AAV (especially from a team that wants him at SS). We know Soto will shoot for the moon.

This winter, Padres have FA issues with Snell, Hader, Lugo Iprobably), Wacha (maybe), and Sanchez … re-signing will take a lot of money … and the Padres likely do have a payroll limit.

So, where does Kim signing an extension fit into the picture and, if that is in the plan, what does that do to the other players being re-signed or new FA signings this winter? Do they end up making Kim the high priority and extend him this winter (the higher AAV could not kick in until 2025)?

Kim, beyond statistically a top performer, he is a fan favorite and his attitude / effort is among the best on the team … and should be valued by Seidler given his personality.

Beyond just the money, Padres have the issue of having Bogaerts (no trade contract) and Cronenworth (who should be a 2B) under long term contracts with the elite Merrill just about ML ready. If they keep Kim … going to have to address position changes (we have suggested some moves) but need to play all them plus the new money for Kim could alter who re-signs / pursue as a FA on long team contracts.

I clearly would try to resign Kim … just his attitude and defense make the team better even if his offense levels out slightly less than 2023. The issue with him will be the size of the contract (and is his agent willing to consider an extension now). Better the Padres know the future of Kim before they make decisions on others.

 

Quote from fenn68 on September 3, 2023, 5:08 am

Did note in the Kim article a comment that Soto was having a very good year (remember national view) … statistically he is even if not up to expectations of some.

Couple that some comments from Soto that he was surprised how difficult it is to hit at PETCO and his Home/Away stats support that.

Soto prides himself as an elite hitter (showcased better by not playing half of his games at PETCO)  and the national view is that he still is, which will turn into probably a bigger contract than the Padres will entertain after 2024 (makes it more probable to sign Kim).

So, will the Padres go all in (again) in 2024 … keep Soto … not address Kim but instead focus on re-signing Snell - Wacha - Lugo - Sanchez for big money / multi-year deals and then hope for rebounds for all the other retuning big bats? Does that strategy eat up so much payroll that they will not (cannot) re-sign Kim after 2024 … if they want to keep an elevated payroll they could use Soto’s 2023 salary space.

Or, given the cost, unlikely future signing of Soto, and what appears to be still some very high regard for Soto, and the arrival of Merrill … do they trade Soto to clear some payroll ($30MM+/-) to  focus on some FA signings in an area of greater need (if we assume the other big bats will rebound)?

Doubt they can sign “everyone”  to long term big money contacts … and any moves to sign FA this winter has the ripple effect on signings next winter. So, might have to make some tough calls / actions.

Quote from WindsorUK on September 3, 2023, 8:26 am

What does a trade package for Juan Soto look like this winter? Certainly not as good as it would have at the trade deadline but does anyone think we can get 2 good prospects(one of which is 2024 ready)?

Certainly would prefer the, what, almost $30 million, to go on front line pitching( I'm assuming Snell signs elsewhere)

Quote from fenn68 on September 3, 2023, 9:08 am

Quote from WindsorUK on September 3, 2023, 8:26 am

What does a trade package for Juan Soto look like this winter? Certainly not as good as it would have at the trade deadline but does anyone think we can get 2 good prospects(one of which is 2024 ready)?

Certainly would prefer the, what, almost $30 million, to go on front line pitching( I'm assuming Snell signs elsewhere)

Even with only 1 year control and costing about $30MM ... from close contender might get one blue chip guy and another good prospect. However, if the deal is with a contender, I would not expect any add that provides major quality for 2024 to the Padres (probably will use some of the $30MM to get that). Keep in mind from a national perspective Soto is elite and if they focus on the AWAY 2023 stats very elite and worth more than $30MM annually.

Padres have to work the assumption that Tatis - Machado - Bogaerts - Cronenworth will all rebound to provide the core of the offense and Kim / Campusano continue their performance. So maybe the need in LF is not quite as important and can be handled by a lower level FA (or Merrill). If that does not happen ... keep Soto may not mean much anyway.

NYY keep coming up as a landing spot ... and that fit could work IF they are interested. Will toss in two other candidates ... TOR and TEX ... both are on the bubble of Wild Card in 2023 ... both have a strong core returning ... both seem to have decent pitching but lack some LF impact. Toronto really needs some LHH power and TEX has been going with Grossman / Jankowski in LF which is not ideal for a contender.

If the Padres are willing to go quality and are indifferent to position ... both teams have some interesting Top 100 guys that could be in play. Toronto has Tiedemann (LHP in AA) in the top 50 ... big upside (#2 SP type) but maybe a year away ... TOR has a good staff so Tiedemann may not help them in 2024 (note that TOR also has money). TEX maybe trickier to pull off but the have two higher rated prospects ... both OF that can hit (one in AAA and one in A+) but probably not impact in 2024 for them. Might they move one for the immediate impact of a Soto (they also have money)? Both trades (knowing Preller) could end up more complicated with additional players going both ways.

I guess from my perspective adding a big upside pitcher (Tiedemann) falls in the category you can't have enough SP going forward ... and SP is a pretty marketable commodity. However, IF (and I doubt it) they could get Langford out of Texas who was a top pick in 2023 draft ... #4 (college type) and crushing A+ as a RHH I would vote for that for long run value (less chance of injury). Question is how motivated are those teams to make the playoffs in 2024 vs waiting for the potential of prospects in 2025-6?

Quote from Jeremy Hill on September 3, 2023, 11:20 am

I wouldn't want to bet against Soto in a contract year. I've been a little frustrated by him too, but even in what is a down year by his standards he's still been a top 10 bat. It's hard to imagine this team being better in 2024 without him. With so much money invested in older players and most of the big contracts having full no trade clauses I don't think they have much choice, but to keep spending and going for it in the early years of those deals.