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OFFSEASON 2023-24
#41 · September 3, 2023, 12:42 pm
Quote from Jeremy Hill on September 3, 2023, 11:20 amI wouldn't want to bet against Soto in a contract year. I've been a little frustrated by him too, but even in what is a down year by his standards he's still been a top 10 bat. It's hard to imagine this team being better in 2024 without him. With so much money invested in older players and most of the big contracts having full no trade clauses I don't think they have much choice, but to keep spending and going for it in the early years of those deals.
I also think Soto will have an excellent 2024 ... even a MVP type season ... just not sure the Padres can add enough pitching to build a full TEAM while he consuming $30MM payroll. They may spend more than the $281MM (CBT) 2023 payroll but not sure how without signing older players to long term (over priced) deals that just make the old age / high cost worse for years to come. Then Soto leaves leaving the Padres holding the bag for years.
2023 seems to be the "all in" year ... and it failed. Maybe a different strategy (not just adding more future anchors) is now called for targeting a better 26 man roster and with an eye on 2025-6. Made their bet on the seven long term contracts in place ... hope they deliver ... just don't make it worse.
Just to retain the FA on this team the CBT payroll would jump to around $320-330MM (equivalent replacement FA would be about the same) and, except for Soto's $30MM, that level will linger for years since most will command long term contracts. That is a lot of faith (and money) for a team that had a losing record for most of the season and in the clutch got worse in August with the chance (good chance) that will linger for the foreseeable future. That was with Soto.
I would use 2024 as a pause to reevaluate the main players locked in and determine IF they can rebound to the original expectations plus evaluate the near term prospects and their potential contributions. IF things fall together some trade deadline adds for a playoff run (still realistic without Soto) ... if not some prospect call-ups to set up 2025 while trying to figure out how to get around what might be some dead weight contracts.
If the Padres don't start focusing on young / low cost regulars now ... we may be in for a decade of .500 ball while carrying the dead weight of long term deals on old under performing players.
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#42 · September 3, 2023, 2:38 pm
NOT predicting the future of the Padres on long term deals but present this as a cautionary tale of going overboard even if you assume only the upsides.
Consider Anthony Rendon … signs a 7 year / $245MM ($35MM AAV) at age 30 with the LAA. He had a seven year run with WASH … playing almost every day … hitting 290/369/490 (859) with 2 silver slugger awards and in the top 10 MVP voting 5 times. Only 30 and healthy right … should be a safe bet for 7 years.
In his 4 years in LA (30-31-32-33) perpetually injured with going with on 52-58-47-43 games per season and a reduced output at 249/359/399 (758) … never know when age kicks in.
With LAA had similar outcomes with Pujols, Hamilton, Upton, and now apparently Trout.
Don’t want to go down the same path as LAA. Maybe health or maybe just age eroding production … but are the Padres already seeing some coming problems with Manny, Cronenworth, Bogaerts, Musgrove, Darvish, Suarez? We have them for a lot more years.
Of course 2023 could be the outlier for a few more season and all becomes good in 2024-25 but guessing Father Time will get them way before the contract expire.
#43 · September 3, 2023, 3:26 pm
Another mental exercise as I obsess on SP in 2024.
IF they want to contend going to have to deal with what really has been their three main SP this year who could be gone (Wacha, Lugo, Snell) knowing the top prospects are still a few years away from being productive MLers and equivalent SP will cost as much or more than re-signing those three. Including the returning Musgrove and Darvish the Padres’ SP have one of the best ERA in MLB and have the most “quality starts” … should not they make every attempt to retain that quality?
Have to have a base assumption the hitters will rebound and the offense will only need minor (low cost) tinkering on the edge if they keep Soto and Merrill is as advertised.
So what might it take to retain those three:
1. Wacha (32) current AAV $6.5 MM and can be retained for 2 years via club option with a $16MM AAV … increases CBT payroll $9.5MM. Seems like a no brainer to retain him.
2. Lugo (33) current AAV $7.5MM. Not as effective as Wacha or Snell and oldest of the three but still a strong SP. Would the Padres go $12MM/2 years … would that work or does a third year be needed? If they landed a $12MM deal … increases CBT payroll another $4.5MM.
3. Snell (30) current AAV only $10MM. Many expecting him to push $30MM for maybe 6 or 7 years. The years may be the hardest pill to swallow. If he got $30MM … CBT payroll up another $20MM.
Sign all three and CBT will be about $285MM … slightly above 2023. Not sure they could do better on the FA market. Also allows more time for the prospects fully develop to replace Wacha / Lugo down the road. After 2024 both could become trade chips or the prospects could arrive early and work in the pen / cover injuries.
Might be a good strategy to keep this productive staff together with Niebla … and just roll the dice on the offense to self correct with a boost from Merrill. If $300MM is the cap … still some wiggle room on lower end contracts for Sanchez and … wait for it … Profar.
#44 · September 4, 2023, 12:03 pm
Under one scenario where the 7 season long starting position players return plus Campusano slides in at catcher … the DH / bench will still need a lot of work.
Merrill will clearly be in the mix (and likely have the inside track) for the DH/super utility role and the 9th bat in the line-up. However, besides a back-up catcher, need better pieces to cover injury, rest for regulars, and maybe struggles out of Merrill.
1. Carpenter appears to want to return and will take his player option … LHH PH/DH … some question whether the Padres will then keep him or release him and eat the contract.
Then not much, so should we consider (at the right price):
1. Profar … versatile switch-hitter and a great clubhouse fit (good chance we see this)
2. Cooper … FA after the season but his brief spell shows he can hit and could be a RHH complement to Carpenter or Merrill. He will be 33 … basically a career part time player with MIA but has consistently delivered every season to have a career 271/338/438 slash line / 112 wRC+. No real difference vs LHP or RHP which make his even more appealing. Not a good fielder either at 1B or LF (his two primary positons).
Cooper made $4.2MM in 2023 and at age 33 with a history as only a part-time player might not have a strong FA market and should be signed for maybe less than that. As suggested elsewhere, Profar after a poor 2023 with COLO and likely another poor FA market should be able to be signed by the Padres with a low end contract.
Padres would be stronger over a 162 games season with a bench / DH of Merrill (L) - Profar (#) - Cooper (R) - Carpenter (L) … and a back-up catcher to be named later. Profar - Cooper - Carpenter provide veterans with ML success and should be comfortable with the bench roles at this stage. Plus have to consider if Merrill is not quite ready … Profar - Cooper - Carpenter would be good insurance for the DH role at a low cost while the bigger money is directed to SP.
Not the showy moves to deal with improving the club BUT a 26 man roster is important (as we have seen this year) and needs to have some attention.
#45 · September 4, 2023, 2:42 pm
Hector Gomez said that the Padres have had extension talks with Soto and that they've gone very well in response to a fan on Twitter. He's usually pretty plugged in when it comes to Dominican players. I think we've learned not to question the limits of Seidler's spending. It could be something to look out for this off-season.
#46 · September 4, 2023, 3:35 pm
Quote from Jeremy Hill on September 4, 2023, 2:42 pmHector Gomez said that the Padres have had extension talks with Soto and that they've gone very well in response to a fan on Twitter. He's usually pretty plugged in when it comes to Dominican players. I think we've learned not to question the limits of Seidler's spending. It could be something to look out for this off-season.
Not surprised the Padres have had extension talks before the end of the season. “Gone very well” is somewhat speculative and with no agreement maybe not that close yet.
Yeh, Siedler may have more money to deploy but really doubt they “chase” Soto at Boras’ price especially without other bidders in the mix.
Looking at this in a different way … entering extension negotiations now may serve to give Preller / Siedler the sense of how high they would have to go to sign him and, in turn, convince them they will not at his price. A prelude to a trade this off-season if they don’t see any future?
#47 · September 5, 2023, 4:49 pm
What should be an interesting debate in the Padres’ front office as they try to build a winning team while dealing with FA and manage a budget. Keep in mind that keeping the current roster (that has been underperforming and has a losing record) will push the payroll well over $300MM … and still not addressing the “holes” in the roster.
Tough choices on who to try to re-sign, consider estimated costs:
1. Soto … $35MM AAV … 15 years … $525MM (Boras is the agent) … after 2024
2. Snell … $30MM AAV … 7 years … $210MM (think Boras again) … after this year
3. Kim … $23MM AAV … 7 years … $161MM … after 2024
4. Hader … $21MM AAV … 5 years … $105MM … after 2023 (tops Diaz as a RP)
5. Sanchez … $10MM AAV … 2 years … $20MM … after 2023
6. Wacha … $16MM AAV … 2 years … $32MM … after 2023 if club exercises option
7. Lugo … $13MM AAV … 2 years … $26MM … after 2023
Layer these on Machado, Tatis, Bogaerts, Cronenworth, Musgrove, Darvish, and Suarez all on expensive long term deals … just unrealistic beyond just the money but building a very old team.
Who do you let walk (or trade) … clearly a need to roll in some productive lower cost options.
#48 · September 7, 2023, 8:06 am
I feel like the conservative thing to do is focus on retaining Lugo, Wacha, and Sanchez. You trade Soto, let Hader and Snell walk, and work to retain Kim next year.
Sanchez has emerged as an important cog in the clubhouse and a stabilizing force at catcher. Wacha and Lugo offer relative values who will age out in time for our prospects to step in. Soto still represents significant trade value, and it just doesn't make financial sense to retain him (especially after the Boegarts signing). Hader and Snell will be hard to replace in terms of production, but I don't see how we fit them into the budget.
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MrPadre19
#49 · September 7, 2023, 10:01 am
Quote from sportwarrior on September 7, 2023, 8:06 amI feel like the conservative thing to do is focus on retaining Lugo, Wacha, and Sanchez. You trade Soto, let Hader and Snell walk, and work to retain Kim next year.
Sanchez has emerged as an important cog in the clubhouse and a stabilizing force at catcher. Wacha and Lugo offer relative values who will age out in time for our prospects to step in. Soto still represents significant trade value, and it just doesn't make financial sense to retain him (especially after the Boegarts signing). Hader and Snell will be hard to replace in terms of production, but I don't see how we fit them into the budget.
From my brain, to your keyboard! My thoughts exactly.
Soto is the one trade piece we can use to get things of value, to help fill some holes. Still absolutely stupefied that Snell and Hader are still here.
Next year hopefully we'll see Crone back at 2B and Merrill in SD at some point, giving us a better idea what to do with Kim at the end of the year. If Jake and Jackson perform, maybe move Kim at the deadline, making sure to get something of value in return ( less of course we're good and pushing for the WS).
#50 · September 7, 2023, 10:15 am
The thing that worries me about Sanchez is he's suddenly at peak value despite being released buy a couple other clubs just this season.
He had a tremendous start with the NYY....then became a perennial DFA candidate.
Who will he be next year?
I can just see this board,and Twitter, next season if we give him $8-$10 mil a year for two years and he stops hitting.