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OFFSEASON 2023-24
#21 · August 28, 2023, 3:51 pm
I know most don’t like the money side of building a roster but Padres will have three issues to recognize for 2024 cash flow:
1. They lost the TV deal ($60MM) and apparently MLB (unlike this year) will (may) not back fill at all (now backfilling at about 80%)
2. Season tickets are not getting renewed … one report has them 5,000 behind and that may cost them $10 +/-MM (depending on the location) plus loss concession revenue. Then the risk of another poor start and the projection of single game tickets may drop.
3. (Note a lot of unknown on this one) but MLB has some rules on debt servicing limits and if revenues are reduced … other costs have to be reduced to ensure debt service coverage.
Combine that with Siedler’s earlier comments and a strong case for the team not to increase the payroll for 2024 and maybe work it down a bit. It does appear that the two higher payroll teams will be working down their payrolls (although never can trust the NYY/NYM) and with any increases the Padres could have the highest CBT payroll in 2024 while not even retaining the full current team.
Side: heard that STL will be interested in Snell as a FA … Snell’s side is (as one would expect) is interested. Same source implied that the Padres may not be all the keen on retaining Snell. Just rumor and FA will see a lot of twists and turns but just something to trigger alternative thinking.
#22 · August 28, 2023, 7:00 pm
Starting to think Snell and Sanchez are going to end up somewhere together….as a package.
Will we let them go?
#24 · August 29, 2023, 6:45 am
Sanchez will be an interesting FA this winter. Although it is easy from a view of two players working together … the Snell / Sanchez pairing may not really hold as the buying teams may not want both (at their price / internal options) and, Sanchez has no allegiance to Snell and he (his agent) will go for the best deal with this FA being probably his best chance of a strong multi-year deal with his 2023 showing in-game power and better than advertised defense.
Melvin is signing the praise of Sanchez and actually he has a chance to set the single season HR record for Padre catchers (only 4 off the pace and in just about 1/2 the AB). His best season in years for a guy no one wanted early in the season.
Padres NEED a 2nd catcher for 2024 … always need 2 ML quality catchers in this era … Campusano is looking good but still a bit of a question over a full seasons … Nola looks to be history and Sullivan is a AAA player … not a lot of “reasonable” FA on the market. Knowing Salas in coming Padres are not going to make a long term commitment to a second catcher.
Good chance the Padres make a strong push for retaining Sanchez (even without Snell) … any guess what Sanchez will demand … what is the top offer from the Padres … will the get signed by the Padres? Very good (but not great) season … shaky past … but a world lacking a lot of catching depth. It only takes one team to make an “over pay” offer … although that seems to be the Padres recently.
#25 · August 29, 2023, 7:06 am
Quote from MrPadre19 on August 28, 2023, 7:00 pmStarting to think Snell and Sanchez are going to end up somewhere together….as a package.
Will we let them go?
Obviously this isn't the case...but when saw them "embracing" as Snell left the field after 7 scoreless my immediate thought was that I bet Snell would like Sanchez to go with him wherever he ends up.
I think we may keep Sanchez but don't see how we can afford Snell.
If we lose Snell,Wacha AND Lugo 24' may be another frustrating season.
They've been our best Starters obviously.
#26 · August 29, 2023, 7:52 am
Quote from MrPadre19 on August 29, 2023, 7:06 amQuote from MrPadre19 on August 28, 2023, 7:00 pmStarting to think Snell and Sanchez are going to end up somewhere together….as a package.
Will we let them go?
Obviously this isn't the case...but when saw them "embracing" as Snell left the field after 7 scoreless my immediate thought was that I bet Snell would like Sanchez to go with him wherever he ends up.
I think we may keep Sanchez but don't see how we can afford Snell.
If we lose Snell,Wacha AND Lugo 24' may be another frustrating season.
They've been our best Starters obviously.
Don't worry our offense is back and will carry us.
#27 · August 29, 2023, 5:00 pm
In 2024 the first CBT threshold is $237MM … my estimate of the Padre CBT payroll to start is $262MM with all the FA leaving, Arb decisions, and returning Wacha (club option), Martinez (player option) and Carpenter (player option with Lugo leaving (player option). So, $25MM over the threshold but $15MM under the next level.
That would be enough consecutive years over the threshold to kick in a 50% penalty for any overage. Then add another tax at 12.5% (20-40 over) and 45% (40-60) over. That has to be considered beyond the straight payroll figures (especially with the issues with revenues).
Add that if they are over by $40MM the have their #1 pick drop 10 slots.
Might that curb some signings … just Snell / Sanchez would push them near $300MM plus significant moderate penalties. On the other hand … just moving Soto would get them under the threshold and if they stayed there for 2024 all the penalties would reset and they could be aggressive the following winter (think extension for Kim). Move Soto - Barlow - Nola - Grisham and they would be about $15MM under … and some room for upgrades while staying under. Maybe they get lucky and Martinez declines his $8MM option making more room for upgrades.
Really doubt they take the route of going under $237MM BUT at the same time don’t see them doing signings to take them to over $300MM. Given the unbalanced roster and a lot of upgrade needs … a good chance Soto is moved to clear about $30MM and create a pool of about $60MM to for upgrades if they do plan to push $290-300MM.
#28 · August 29, 2023, 6:05 pm
Yeah, I'd rather have Snell/Sanchez for that money instead of Soto.
#29 · August 30, 2023, 5:39 am
Another rationale for moving Soto this winter ... his performance at PETCO vs AWAY.
227/390/389 (779) ... at PETCO
291/410/570 (980) ... AWAY
Those AWAY stats are more in line with the star Soto that existed pre-2022.
So, IF I am Soto (and his agent) ... when he gets to FA he will market those AWAY stats to get the premium contract and will have little motivation to return to PETCO.
Padres have to weigh having 1/2 of a premium Soto (for $30MM+/-) in 2024 then losing him for nothing against themselves marketing Soto's AWAY stats for 2023 ... get a decent return and clear $30MM+/- to deploy on other upgrades filling out a 26 man roster and maybe developing a base beyond 2024.
Assuming there is a buyer ... seems prudent for the Padres to shake-up the roster by moving Soto to set-up a more complete 2024 roster and years after. Not sure how Preller views this ... will he not want to admit an error in judgement on the Soto trade and just want to hold hoping Soto's PETCO performance improves?
Soto and payroll are the key moving parts for a different 2024 ... beyond that it is just a hope the big bats (Machado, Tatis, Bogaerts, Cronenworth) rebound to their career levels to offset the departing FA ... but will that make the TEAM better?
#30 · August 30, 2023, 7:42 am
Combining some thoughts on multiple threads, I have some thoughts on a way to approach 2024.
I think if Merrill's bat is ready, the best thing IMO would be to keep him at his natural position, SS. And with that being the case, perhaps it is Kim that needs to do the rotating of defensive positions, as he is already doing that this season.
I could see where we have an INF of Machado (3B), Merrill (SS), Crone (2B), and Bogaerts (1B), and then Kim simply rotates in at 3B, SS, and 2B and DH giving all the INF a breather through out the week.
And I am sure Kim could easily handle with his speed, either LF or CF as well. I personally would leave Tatis alone in RF, he has the best arm, and looks very comfortable out there. He did not look as comfortable in CF, which I am sure that he could get there, but sometimes it is better left alone.