Quote from MrPadre19 on November 7, 2023, 7:38 am

Wacha just turned 32...I could see him getting a 3 year deal.

Maybe 4 if the team wants to back load the deal

Apparently it won't be us though....

Quote from fenn68 on November 7, 2023, 8:28 am

Quote from fenn68 on November 6, 2023, 1:07 pm

Unless there is a "mystery candidate" for the Padres' manager ... seems we are down to Shildt, Flaherty, and Gil ... yet hearing that we will not get a decision until later this week.

More dissent in the FO on the hiring? Preller has had years of working with Shildt and Flaherty so that call should not be that hard. Gil is the outsider but that call should be pretty straight forward with him vs the winner of the Shildt - Flaherty face-off.

Maybe the Business side wants the cheapest on a one year deal and Preller wants the most expensive on a 10 year deal? Irrelevant who is better (if anyone could tell).

Well David Ross may become that mystery candidate … a report that the Padres are now interested in interviewing him.

Maybe just eyewash to give the illusion of “due diligence” or maybe the front office is just indecisive. Would think Ross may be too expensive. Houston and LAA still in the hunt for a manager.

One unfortunate thought is that by delaying the call on a new manager, the Padres are holding up both Flaherty and Shildt and maybe getting in the way of them seeking one of the other managerial openings … especially if the “loser” may really want to move on but the Padres want to retain both.

Quote from fenn68 on November 7, 2023, 1:08 pm

As we begin getting impacted by the payroll issue, decide to take a look at what Siedler committed on long term contracts in the 8 month period (Aug 1, 2022 - April 1, 2023) ... a whopping $964MM to 6 players.

Aug 1, 2022 ... $100MM to Musgrove

Nov 10, 2022 ... $46MM to Suarez

Dec 8, 2022 ... $280MM to Bogaerts

Feb 9, 2023 ... $108MM to Darvish

Feb 26, 2023 ... $350MM to Machado

Apr 1, 2023 ... $80MM to Cronenworth

Note that Tatis was much earlier

Feb 17, 2021 ... $338MM to Tatis

Total $1.3 BILLION committed to 7 players ... can't accuse Seidler of being cheap but maybe not so smart in player / roster evaluation.

Quote from fenn68 on November 8, 2023, 6:22 am

Wonder how much this weeks GM meeting will set up some trades?

Foremost is the potential for a Soto trade. Preller must know that very few team will realistically be in on dealing for Soto for 1 year / $33MM, so he could limit his scope and make a more realistic decision on a return (assuming he wants to trade Soto).

Cashman came out and said the NYY will be in the hunt for OF (both LF and CF) and preferably  a LHH. Most seem to think they are not looking at Ohtani or Bellinger … both big money … long term. So, Soto money should not be an issue for an impact bat and they should be well positioned for an extension. Many of us have had NYY at the top of the list for Soto trade partners. If Preller does not over play his hand … could happen sooner than later.

Getting the feeling that the only other potential major player will be the Cubs … reports of earlier “interest” and after the big signing of Counsel as Manager … maybe need to follow that up with a major impact add. Does not appear the wanted in on extending Bellinger but Ohtani may still be a target and prevent them from pulling the trigger quickly on Soto.

The may be some others “interested” but just unable (or unwilling) to pull together a competitive offer … giving up quality prospects (if you have them) is not easy while taking on $33MM but only for 1 year.

As I said before, the value of clearing that $33MM given budget constraints and re-deploying it to upgrade the full roster has major value if building a contender … so holding out for a “marginal” upgrade in the prospect return may be self defeating. Of course, without knowing the offer (and varying option on the potential of the prospects) hard to say whether the base prospect offer is reasonable.

Quote from fenn68 on November 8, 2023, 6:28 am

Do we know when Lee is free to sign with a ML team? IF the Padres land him for CF, does that open Grisham to be traded to the NYY (they clearly want a LHH CF)?

Timing is an issue. Possible a Soto+Grisham deal to NYY for a better return?

Side: would prefer to make it a Soto+Carpenter deal (same cost to NYY) and non-tender Grisham to maximize payroll space. If then Grisham signs with NYY it likely is less that $5MM he should get in ARB.

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What is the sense of Lee defensively as a CF? I have read different comments for plus to minus plus a question on his recovery from his ankle injury.

Quote from Randy Manese on November 8, 2023, 8:19 am

Haven't heard any recent news as to when Kiwoom will post him but that's been on the table since at least the WBC early this year.  After the posting, maybe by next week(?), then we'll see who the real suitors are and whether having former teammate Ha-seong Kim on the Padres will help land him here.

I've watched a lot of clips on Lee defensively as well as read several scouting reports.  His strengths are that he is great coming in on balls that appear to be falling in for hits in front of him.  He generally gets good reads and has good instinct (much like Marsee) and has a good to very good and accurate OF arm (better than Marsee's).  Where you get the negatives are his reads on hard-hit line drives, sometimes getting twisted around in order to recover from those reads to make the catch (or not).  He does have great recovery speed (a tad better than Marsee) and moves very well laterally, maybe even equal to Grisham.  I would say going back on the ball he is not as good as Grisham has been, but few are; however, Grisham had some timing issues when going back to the wall and jumping for balls.  Lee doesn't have that problem and will catch and almost always will hold onto anything he can get his glove on.  My guess is that he'd rank at worst around the bottom of the top 10 of the current CF's in the majors.

Ankle injuries, I've had my share, take awhile to recover but since this happened around mid-season, he should be fully recovered by spring training.

 

Quote from fenn68 on November 8, 2023, 8:27 am

Quote from Randy Manese on November 8, 2023, 8:19 am

Haven't heard any recent news as to when Kiwoom will post him but that's been on the table since at least the WBC early this year.  After the posting, maybe by next week(?), then we'll see who the real suitors are and whether having former teammate Ha-seong Kim on the Padres will help land him here.

I've watched a lot of clips on Lee defensively as well as read several scouting reports.  His strengths are that he is great coming in on balls that appear to be falling in for hits in front of him.  He generally gets good reads and has good instinct (much like Marsee) and has a good to very good and accurate OF arm (better than Marsee's).  Where you get the negatives are his reads on hard-hit line drives, sometimes getting twisted around in order to recover from those reads to make the catch (or not).  He does have great recovery speed (a tad better than Marsee) and moves very well laterally, maybe even equal to Grisham.  I would say going back on the ball he is not as good as Grisham has been, but few are; however, Grisham had some timing issues when going back to the wall and jumping for balls.  Lee doesn't have that problem and will catch and almost always will hold onto anything he can get his glove on.  My guess is that he'd rank at worst around the bottom of the top 10 of the current CF's in the majors.

Ankle injuries, I've had my share, take awhile to recover but since this happened around mid-season, he should be fully recovered by spring training.

 

Good insight ... if he has the offense sure sounds as an immediate upgrade over Grisham without much loss of defense. Maybe place him a few paces deeper to use his plus on coming in on balls and minimizing the reaction on deeper balls.

Quote from Jeremy Hill on November 8, 2023, 9:00 am

Last I read on Lee said that he wasn't going to be posted until after the conclusion of the KBO Championship. It's currently 1-1. That would mean a week at the earliest. Realistically it'll probably be closer to the end of the month.

Lee is an interesting case to me. There's a clear chance to upgrade in CF. Given his friendship with Kim and the chance to start his MLB career in his KBO stadium I would think we would be heavy favorites if we want him. I do wonder about his real offensive ceiling though. His BA and OBP numbers are even better than Kim's were in the KBO. He hasn't shown consistent power and he doesn't run much. I've seen some reports that compare him to Ender Inciarte and others that think he has the upside of someone like Brandon Nimmo. That's a pretty big difference. I also think Kim's success and the weak market might drive his price up.

Quote from Randy Manese on November 8, 2023, 9:21 am

Forgot about the KBO championship - thanks for reminding me!  Questions regarding his offense are similar to Kim's, i.e., can he handle high end velocity.  Kim had some adjustment issues but also didn't play much his 1st year, which hindered his growth.  Kim has gotten a lot better although he is a different hitter from Lee.  Lee has better bat control and great on-base skills but probably not superior exit velocity so HR numbers may be in the low double digits at best.   Also, while he has excellent speed when underway, he is not the base stealer Kim.

I think Lee is kind of a mash-up between Inciarte and Nimmo.  His power numbers may be more like Inciarte was in 2017/2018 (but could be better when he fills out a little more) but his on-base skills are at least equal to Nimmo.  Comparable BA around the 285-305 range.  Definitely won't steal as many bases as Inciarte in his prime but better than Nimmo - maybe 10-12 max.

For the above reasons, don't think he'll get a contract like some of the recent Japanese hitters (Suzuki/Yoshida), who had better power numbers in a tougher league over a longer period of time.  That would work in the Padres' favor because most teams are looking more for power over hit first.