Quote from fenn68 on October 26, 2023, 11:06 am

Quote from MrPadre19 on October 26, 2023, 9:28 am

It may just be my desire to hold onto a generational talent like Soto but the Yanks prospects don't do much for me.

 

I think the ship sailed on holding on to Soto when last winter they extended Machado, Cronenworth, Darvish, and signed Bogaerts to big long term deals. Layer those on Tatis and Musgrove.

Side: listening to a local radio show and "the coach" was relaying a rumor that Melvin wanted to trade Soto during last season. Apparently Soto was/is one of those players that really was on his own agenda on getting prepared and was vocal on where he should bat in the order. It is a team ... not sure Soto is a team player.

As it stands, it is less about the return for Soto ... it is what they can add with the $33MM they "save".

Quote from BoosterSD on October 26, 2023, 11:39 am

Quote from fenn68 on October 26, 2023, 10:57 am

Maybe it is me ... but don't see stiff competition for Soto. Regardless of his talent ... who would take him for 1 year / $33MM AND given up ML ready talent?

There was an article on the Athletic where Jim Bowden lists 5 teams that would be in on talks for Soto.

NYY, BOS, SEA, SFG, and CLE.

He has an explanation of why CLE would work, basically Bieber and Kwan for Soto. I dont think that CLE is realistic, due to money, and Kwan it looks as if he is regressing with bat.

IF Melvin had an issue with Soto, I think we can now take SFG off that list. I have read in a few places, that CHC would be interested in trading for Soto.

So that's at least 4 teams that could be in on Soto. Plenty to get a bidding war going.

Quote from fenn68 on October 26, 2023, 12:13 pm

Quote from BoosterSD on October 26, 2023, 11:39 am

Quote from fenn68 on October 26, 2023, 10:57 am

Maybe it is me ... but don't see stiff competition for Soto. Regardless of his talent ... who would take him for 1 year / $33MM AND given up ML ready talent?

There was an article on the Athletic where Jim Bowden lists 5 teams that would be in on talks for Soto.

NYY, BOS, SEA, SFG, and CLE.

He has an explanation of why CLE would work, basically Bieber and Kwan for Soto. I dont think that CLE is realistic, due to money, and Kwan it looks as if he is regressing with bat.

IF Melvin had an issue with Soto, I think we can now take SFG off that list. I have read in a few places, that CHC would be interested in trading for Soto.

So that's at least 4 teams that could be in on Soto. Plenty to get a bidding war going.

The Cleveland one is “interesting” boils down to Cleveland picking up the $20MM difference between the projected salaries between Soto and Bieber AND if Bieber is healthy. He ended 2023 on the 60 day IL (right elbow) and had a couple of rehab efforts.

However IF Bieber is healthy (at $12MM/1 year) and Kwan (who in his down season still hit around .265 BA, .340 OBP at league minimum with 4 years control). Padres would get a legit ML SP (ERA in the mid-3s) and a CF to replace Grisham … and save $20MM.

Cleveland really needed offense and in a weak AL Central rebounding to Division champs is not a great challenge … so really does make some sense for Cleveland. Then if SD is really shooting to win in 2024 … getting a proven quality ML SP in Bieber for only $12MM and an offensive upgrade in CF in Kwan … and then have $20MM to deploy for other holes … actually works.

Add that Niebla was in Cleveland when Bieber had is dominate seasons … if they worked well together Niebla may be an influence to make this trade.

Quote from BoosterSD on October 26, 2023, 1:01 pm

I also made the connection between Bieber and Niebla, so as you said, depends on the health of Bieber.

I am not sure Kwan is a CFer. Did play there some in college and the MiL; however, in the ML has only played 7 games in CF, and I dont recall CLE having great defensive CF options. So Kwan might solve our leadoff issue, just dont know if he can replace Grisham defensively.

Quote from Randy Manese on October 26, 2023, 2:50 pm

I subscribe to The Athletic but I have a lot of reservations from what I've seen of Bowden's opinions/predictions.  Don't believe SF and Seattle are players for Soto because both are after Ohtani and that is going to play out for several months; Preller has to move on from Soto before then if he's going to reconstruct the roster in a timely manner.   Cleveland has too many other holes to put money in a one year rental and give up anything of value because Soto will not sign with them long-term.  Likewise, Bieber is a FA in 2025 and could be a candidate for TJ surgery - why bring another injured arm into the fold who might not even play at all in 2024 if the arm continues to go bad.  Moreover, Kwan is nothing special in my book, so for those reasons a lot of downside just to dump the Soto salary.

Agree with Yankees and Boston as possible players but I would put in the Mets and the Cubs as wanting a core player they can build around for the next 10-12 years and have the resources (if they want to spend) to do it.  Soto looking for a big stage and big money - it's on the other side of the Mississippi.

Quote from fenn68 on October 26, 2023, 3:10 pm

Quote from BoosterSD on October 26, 2023, 1:01 pm

I also made the connection between Bieber and Niebla, so as you said, depends on the health of Bieber.

I am not sure Kwan is a CFer. Did play there some in college and the MiL; however, in the ML has only played 7 games in CF, and I dont recall CLE having great defensive CF options. So Kwan might solve our leadoff issue, just dont know if he can replace Grisham defensively.

Miles Straw is their CF (I think) and defense / speed is his calling card. Agree Kwan is not likely a great defensive CF but think he can handle it while providing a major upgrade offensively. However, just think of Kwan as a throw-in with Bieber as the key (with the $20MM savings). Kwan just is in the mix with Grisham, Azocar, Marsee and even if he is just the bench … still a major upgrade.

Quote from fenn68 on October 26, 2023, 3:19 pm

Quote from Randy Manese on October 26, 2023, 2:50 pm

I subscribe to The Athletic but I have a lot of reservations from what I've seen of Bowden's opinions/predictions.  Don't believe SF and Seattle are players for Soto because both are after Ohtani and that is going to play out for several months; Preller has to move on from Soto before then if he's going to reconstruct the roster in a timely manner.   Cleveland has too many other holes to put money in a one year rental and give up anything of value because Soto will not sign with them long-term.  Likewise, Bieber is a FA in 2025 and could be a candidate for TJ surgery - why bring another injured arm into the fold who might not even play at all in 2024 if the arm continues to go bad.  Moreover, Kwan is nothing special in my book, so for those reasons a lot of downside just to dump the Soto salary.

Agree with Yankees and Boston as possible players but I would put in the Mets and the Cubs as wanting a core player they can build around for the next 10-12 years and have the resources (if they want to spend) to do it.  Soto looking for a big stage and big money - it's on the other side of the Mississippi.

Agree with that assessment and I would add Toronto in the mix.

Actually could see a battle between NYY - BOST - TOR all in the AL EAST with money and seeing a route to the Division winner in 2024 with the add of Soto and keeping Soto out of the hands of the others. Most see BALT / TB as vulnerable going forward.

Think NYY would have the best array of assets they could consider trading (deep farm system) … BOST and TOR a little behind in trade assets (ones they would consider moving).

Quote from TucsonClip on October 26, 2023, 7:40 pm

https://www.sny.tv/articles/sources-yankees-padres-preliminary-juan-soto-conversation

It is almost impossible to imagine the Yankees swapping Anthony Volpe or Jasson Dominguez for one year of any player. But the team does have high-end prospects and rookie depth in Austin Wells, Oswald Peraza and Everson Pereira. The Yanks like all of those players, but would obviously have to trade someone of value for Soto.

One rival official unaffiliated with the Yankees and Padres also wondered if the Yankees could include a veteran like first baseman Anthony Rizzo in a Soto deal, because the Padres are not rebuilding.

Rizzo has a year remaining on his contact, then a club option for 2025. He has a limited no-trade clause; the teams are not known.

 

Quote from fenn68 on October 27, 2023, 1:21 am

Quote from TucsonClip on October 26, 2023, 7:40 pm

https://www.sny.tv/articles/sources-yankees-padres-preliminary-juan-soto-conversation

It is almost impossible to imagine the Yankees swapping Anthony Volpe or Jasson Dominguez for one year of any player. But the team does have high-end prospects and rookie depth in Austin Wells, Oswald Peraza and Everson Pereira. The Yanks like all of those players, but would obviously have to trade someone of value for Soto.

One rival official unaffiliated with the Yankees and Padres also wondered if the Yankees could include a veteran like first baseman Anthony Rizzo in a Soto deal, because the Padres are not rebuilding.

Rizzo has a year remaining on his contact, then a club option for 2025. He has a limited no-trade clause; the teams are not known.

 

Clearly a NY fan point of view with little understanding of the Padres situation / roster and a desire to get out of Rizzo’s $17MM contract.

Should note that Rizzo’s will be 35 coming off an underwhelming season in 421 PA … 244/328/378 and only 12 HR as a LHH in hitter friendly Yankee Stadium. 0.9 WAR.

For perspective Cronenworth (5 years younger) is coming off an underwhelming season in 572 PA … 229/312/378 and 10 HR as a LHH in pitcher friendly PETCO. 1.0 WAR.  This for $7.3MM … and he is not going away. Basically at this point they are the same player.

So, a NY view to not give any quality prospect / player fitting Padre needs while dumping a bad contract to get a mega star … sounds like a normal fan perspective.