Quote from Jeremy Hill on October 27, 2023, 7:04 pm

Well when I left for Japan a few weeks ago I didn't think I would be coming back to the Dbacks in the World Series and Bob Melvin bolting to the Giants.

Quote from Randy Manese on October 27, 2023, 7:30 pm

Buckle up, Jeremy, the next few weeks are going to be just as surprising and amazing as what happened in the few weeks you've been gone.  Hope you enjoyed Japan - worked there for 16 1/2 years!

Quote from Jeremy Hill on October 28, 2023, 12:07 am

Quote from Randy Manese on October 27, 2023, 7:30 pm

Buckle up, Jeremy, the next few weeks are going to be just as surprising and amazing as what happened in the few weeks you've been gone.  Hope you enjoyed Japan - worked there for 16 1/2 years!

Japan was great. We went a couple times when I was a kid, but it had been 15+ years since my last trip. It was definitely a very different experience as an adult. It was really nice to spend some time with my family and see some friends and relatives that I don't get to see very often. On a Padres related note I got a few compliments from people who recognized my Padres gear. My Darvish jersey got more than a little attention the day I wore it.

Quote from fenn68 on October 28, 2023, 2:04 am

Listen to another discussion on different player choices between Melvin and Preller. Previously heard that Melvin wanted to trade Soto last season (can speculate why) and that did not happen. Now the discussion led to Melvin not wanting the Padres to sign Bogaerts (nothing against Bogaerts as a player but did not see the fit for Padres’ needs). Apparently he liked Kim at SS / Cronenworth at 2B and did not like the Bogaert move forcing shifting both Kim and Cronenworth off thier best positions. Bogaerts signed the others moved.

So it seems Melvin had a different view how to build a complete roster (team) than Preller … probably less top heavy with star names and more balanced with talent filling all the holes. Sort of with Melvin on this one.

Two different philosophies … will (can / should) Preller change this winter with a budget limit?

Guessing Preller’s approach relies on the “top heavy” part of the talent will carry the team with enough wins to the playoffs and then are better suited for winning in the playoffs in short series vs the best opponents. (Also, great for merchandising and fan interest). The argument against the more “balanced” team is that they may win more in the regular season but when faced with the stronger opponents in the playoffs will struggle.

No absolutes either way … but the past few years (2023 especially) just getting in as a Wild Card seems to be the strategy … being the best team during the season (see ATL, LAD, BALT) means little. So, how does that impact roster design and team spending? Maybe Preller’s approach is correct (unless the “top heavy” part of the roster collectively slumps) or maybe it is flawed given a reasonable expectation that the big stars will slump / be injured at some point and with zero ability for the non-stars to pick up the slack … less wins?

Probably a blend with a “limited” number of stars supported by a complete and balanced roster … and hope they get the “stars” right and productive. Tatis, Machado, Bogaerts, Musgrove, Darvish SHOULD be enough star power to win (better be since they are long term commitments) so time to focus on balancing the roster?

Quote from Randy Manese on October 28, 2023, 11:34 am

Xander Bogaerts is a relatively large infielder, not so much in height (6:02 or thereabouts) but in weight, around 220.  Although only 31, it would seem prudent for Bogaerts to accept the fact that the team will be more successful defensively (less ground for him to cover) if he moves to 1st base and the Padres go back to Kim at SS and Cronenworth at 2b - that double-play combination is one of the best in the league while each of them are individually Gold Glove candidates at their respective positions.   Bogaerts has enough thump in his bat to bring to the line-up what we expect of a 1st baseman and has the good hands to pick balls up out of the dirt.  So, if we balance the above roster pieces with Kim, Cronenworth and Campusano that's 7 of 9 everyday line-up spots and almost all of those guys are used to playing every day.

This also assumes Soto will be traded so we'll be looking for 2 OF's (assume Grisham is also traded).  OF picking are slim and/or expensive in FA, so my strategy would be not to spend more than 15-20M on the other two spots to keep the balanced roster; if you kept Soto and Grisham, you'd be paying close to 38M for those two positions.  You could platoon Azocar and Marsee in CF, while doing the same with Profar and Jung-hoo Lee in LF, assuming that signing the latter 2 FA won't exceed the 15-20M ceiling.  If we can land Sanchez for less than or  equal to what we would have to pay for Carpenter, then we're just a reserve infielder/catcher away from our 13 man position player roster - Batten or Rosario could fill that role until Merrill or possibly Pauley are ready.   Marsee and Lee are unproven in MLB but both have the potential to be better offensive contributors than Grisham.  A lot of assumptions and risks, but those risks could provide a little more flexibility and depth at lower cost which might allow us enough money to build up the pitching staff.

 

Quote from fenn68 on October 28, 2023, 1:23 pm

Does sounds per some reporting that Bogaerts is willing to move off SS (and the Padres will pursue that) ... but the report suggested the Padres do want him to consider 1B and he is more inclined to move to 2B. Either way Kim returns to SS and that would be a good thing.

Quote from fenn68 on October 28, 2023, 1:57 pm

Did a quick projection of the payroll (cash not AAV / Luxury Tax logic) based on the current roster with all the FA gone, not counting Hosmer, Wacha-Lugo-Martinez all opting out, but Carpenter opting in. Used MLBTR arbitration estimates. The you are here is $182MM.

So IF the cash budget is $200MM, the Padres only have $18MM to work with. Offense would be OK but the pitching staff would not with only Musgrove, Darvish established SP.

I guess they could go one route and just use that $18MM on adding two mid-range SP and hope the offense carries the team towards the playoffs then "adjust" at the trade deadline.

The more flexible route may be to trade Soto - Grisham - Nola - Hill and open up an additional $42MM (but two more holes) and create a pool of about $60MM. If they just spread that over the needs adding $10-15MM players (should be 4-6 adds) they could be much better off in creating a complete roster. Then consider the league minimum prospects who may be ready (Marsee?) or a league minimum player coming in return for Soto.

With the "not quite ready" internal prospects (Salas, Merrill, Pauley, Marsee, Snelling, other pitchers) with high ceilings would stick with adding players on shorter term deals (2 years?). Hopefully that in the 2nd half of 2024 some may be ready to contribute that the ML level ... that projection may have some influence on how they deploy the $60MM.

IF smart (and lucky) they can build a winning team (easily Wild Card level) while being under that $200MM payroll.

 

Quote from fenn68 on October 31, 2023, 12:23 am

MLBTR had a piece on potential SP FA who may be the QO … $20.5MM.

No surprise both Snell and Hader were slam dunk recipients of the QO but they did add some discussion of possibly Wacha and Lugo (not Martinez).

They did lay out the conflict the Padres would have considering they are seeking to lower the payroll and $20.5 MM would be a big dollar amount for either. Pushing against that is the Padres need for SP with potentially Snell, Wacha, Lugo, and Martinez all being FA.

With Lugo, they are convinced that even at turning 34 his 2023 performance will earn him a contact well above his player option which will certainly be turned down.

With Wacha, Padres do have the club option at 2 years / $16MM per year ($32MM) but they suggest there should be some worry about Wacha’s track record of shoulder injuries and basically a 2/3 of a season pitcher. If the Padres turn down the club option … Wacha will certainly turn down the player option.

So the Padres need SP to contend (which they can with their offense) … SP is not cheap or plentiful on the FA market for quality … but they want to lower payroll … but if they make QO to Lugo and/or Wacha their is a chance they reasonable chance they could accept the 1 year $20.5MM believing that is better than any one year (and maybe more valuable than any multi-year) deal they would land. Neither is a $20.5MM pitcher BUT with Lugo’s age / short track record and Wacha’s injury history what would they get on the FA market with likely a 2 year max deal? Might see $20.5 MM for one year and hit FA again better than maybe a $24-28MM / 2 year deal as a FA. Not out of the question both could accept the QO … good for setting the starting staff early in the winter … bad for reducing the payroll.

On Wacha, given the above scenario (and uncertainty) … Padres might just see taking the club option for 2 years ($32MM) as better than $20.5MM for one year and scramble next winter to replace him. Take the risk on health?

Of course … given the Comp picks because of exceeding the Luxury Tax are (I think) only 4th round … might just not make the QO and gamble they can resign them (or equivalent) as FA at a more reasonable contract. That is easier if seeking only 1 SP add but 3 of any quality will be hard given all the other teams seeking SP.

Is Preller currently working on re-worked contracts now to avoid all this? Preller does have a challenge to rebuild SP and lower payroll while trying to contend and probably should not go too far along before filling in some of the blanks.

 

Quote from Randy Manese on October 31, 2023, 7:20 am

It seems both Lugo and Wacha are high risk candidates to re-sign with their prior injury histories more so than their age.  Lugo is definitely worth more than 7.5M, however, he missed time in 2023 with a calf strain and a few years ago had a partial ulnar tear in his elbow.  With him more than doubling his IP from 2022 (and not having pitched 100 innings since 2017), there is the risk that it all comes down on him at once and he tears that UCL, gets arm fatigue or generally can't perform to the level we saw in 2023.  I'd be willing to go about 10M on a 1 year for him or slightly less for 2, hoping he would be healthy enough to return to RP if necessary.

On Wacha, the last 2 years have been his best back to back years, despite his shoulder injury.  He claimed that his shoulder injury in 2023 was different from before, where it was the back of his shoulder.  I don't know if this is a better or worse situation, but you pretty much know what you are going to get with Wacha even if he is a 2/3 or 3/4 of a year pitcher.  Given that pitcher's arms and availability are somewhat unpredictable in general, I'm thinking Wacha is borderline on the 16M option because there are so few good available SP after the Snell, Nola, Gray, Yamamoto group (25+M); he's certainly better than Clevinger or Manaea.  If I could get Wacha for around 13.5M after declining the club option, that would be great but it only takes one team to bid up his value and there are a lot of big market teams that need pitching.  I'm thinking bite the bullet on Wacha to give us at least 3 SP going into the 2024 off-season and hope that he somehow strengthens that shoulder over the winter and can give us at least the same quality 130-140 IP he did in 2023.  I mean if the Rangers could give a 19M QO to Martin Perez last year, besides the budget why shouldn't the Padres try to nail down Wacha for the next 2 years so that our younger pitchers can work their way into the SP rotation.  Lesko, Snelling, Bergert, Iriarte and Mazur all have a chance to push their skills to the next level by 2025.  Further, if any of these young guys emerge earlier, you can always trade Wacha to dump salary.