Quote from BoosterSD on October 25, 2023, 6:58 am

I can see taking a flier on bringing back Lauer after being released by MIL. His performance last season should not garner a lot of interest, and should be able to get him close to league minimum, and maybe even a MiL deal with a ST invite.

Get him back to SD, let Niebla tweek him a little bit, and see if he can return to having success against the LAD.

Quote from fenn68 on October 25, 2023, 8:02 am

Quote from BoosterSD on October 25, 2023, 6:58 am

I can see taking a flier on bringing back Lauer after being released by MIL. His performance last season should not garner a lot of interest, and should be able to get him close to league minimum, and maybe even a MiL deal with a ST invite.

Get him back to SD, let Niebla tweek him a little bit, and see if he can return to having success against the LAD.

Agree he would be a good add to the mix … at least he had some legit ML success in the past … not sure what went south with him. Probably a minor league deal with an invite to ST but something more than minimum if he makes the 26 man roster (good guess that some team will be in the mix on a decent make good contract). Possible … given the open space on the 40 man … a ML deal with a low base and packed with incentives if the Padres see life in him … that should lure him away from others who only want him on a minor league deal.

Surprisingly he is only 28 (seems he has been around forever and is a college guy) … and his 2021 and 2022 were very good (for a bottom of the rotation starter).

Quote from BoosterSD on October 25, 2023, 10:11 am

Our ball park is still conducive to helping pitchers, and with Niebla, there should be a couple of candidates to take that type of bounce back SP contracts.

Quote from Randy Manese on October 25, 2023, 6:34 pm

Just like we all knew Melvin was going to SF once that job opened up, the more I read about a Yankees-Padres trade, the more I believe it is going to happen.  Yankees do not like looking up at the competition both in the division and with crosstown rival Mets, so they are poised to make a big splash in the market and potentially have a lot of money coming off the books both this year and next.  Their target is obviously Juan Soto because of his youth and an excellent chance to re-sign him because of their good working relationship with Boras.  So with a couple of holes to fill and a short porch in RF, here is the trade I propose to benefit the Padres:

Soto, Grisham and Cronenworth for SP Michael King, OF Jasson Dominguez and RP Ian Hamilton.  King is very underrated and won't hit FA until 2026; he's like a younger more talented Nick Martinez and is likely going to get less than 3M in his first year of arbitration.  Hamilton is a veteran with a pretty solid track record and is expected to get less than 1M in arbitration.  Dominguez (or any of the Yankees top OF or SP) would be a great get even though he won't be able to play much next year, however, he's just turn 21 in February and will make league minimum.    From the Yankees perspective they get Soto's offense and Grisham's CF defense (both real needs) and not have to depend on youngsters Volpe or Peraza or the defensively challenged Gleyber Torres in the infield (also can trade Gleyber); besides Grisham and Cronenworth are likely to flourish hitting in Yankee Stadium.

Salaries/CBT for the players the Padres are going to give up are expected to be at least 45M and will grow next year when Cronenworth's contract hits over 11M CBT.  On the other we take on contracts at under a combined 4M, we can probably keep Barlow and circle back on Wacha and Martinez to fill out the 2024 rotation at somewhere around a combined 23-25M for both.  That would take us out of the bidding for SP Yamamoto but allow us to sign the Korean FA OF Jung-hoo Lee and possibly extend Kim/re-sign Sanchez/and/or Profar.  Doesn't solve all the Padres roster issues but makes it a lot easier to navigate at a lower salary structure.

 

Quote from fenn68 on October 26, 2023, 5:27 am

Agree the NYY are probably the best fit for a Soto trade … they have the need in the line-up, money, and likely see a window to get back to the top of the AL EAST … plus they have a decent array of potential trade chips.

The MLBTradeRumors piece implied that Preller will take his time on a Soto deal to check out other trade partners and get the “best deal”. Not  sure he can afford to take too long before pulling the string on a deal. If he is going to use the Soto money to sign other players while staying under the budget … a big of a risk to “spend” first and work the deal later (while other teams “know” the payroll issue with the Padres). Keep in mind that other FA are going to sign on their time line not wait for the Padres. A deal before the Winter Meeting would work well for the Padres’ and making the follow-up moves.

Not really sure on the return Soto would generate … not going to be a lot of bidders to take on 1 year / $33MM (and the bidder will know that) so will be slow to make a robust offer. Sort of taking the approach that Padres be happy we are solving your budget problem so don’t expect great talent in return.

In my view, hope Preller leans into a lower volume of return players and opts for the higher ceiling 1 or 2 pieces.

I also thought they could include Grisham (NYY have that need too) and save another $4-5MM (and get rid of an offensive irritation for me). Did note in the MLBTradeRumors piece that they seem to think there would be other teams interested in Grisham. Wonder if Preller would go that route and get NYY to take Carpenter (probably just release him) to clear his salary off the Padres’ books. Basically pass on a midrange prospect in the return to move Carpenter.

So, if they can successfully move Soto, Grisham, Carpenter … they do clear a lot of money to target SP. The companion piece is the 2024 projection on Pauley, Marsee, and Merrill (and how much would the gamble on them in 2024 to support the returning Machado, Tatis, Bogaerts, et al).

The other element is whether given the budget (probably going forward) and what appears to be a strong lower minor league crop of prospects and knowing both Machado’s and Tatis’ contract will begin to really jump (cash) very soon … do they focus on shorter term FA signings within the budget while leaving room for the prospects to land in the next few years.

Quote from fenn68 on October 26, 2023, 5:44 am

If they solve their budget issue with the move of Soto-Grisham-Carpenter … might opt to hold on to Breslow ($7MM / 1 year) … he has been a quality RP in 2021-22 (and at the end of 2023 for the Padres) and the Padres need depth in the pen. Can always deal a RP during the season.

I think they are going to have to live with Cronenworth … his contract is just unappealing given his 2023 performance and would generate no return … actually may reduce the return in a NYY trade … even they will have money concerns and can work more cheaply around a serviceable 2B. Padres “should” move him back to 2B and hope he rebuilds some value with a good 2024.

Quote from fenn68 on October 26, 2023, 7:05 am

This may be too much of a return from the NYY but as a starting base for debate:

NYY get Soto ($33MM/1 year), Carpenter ($5.5MM/1 year) …

Padres get:

A. (Pick one) Jones (LHH OF, AA, MLB #73) or Dominguez (SH OF, AA/injured), MLB #74) or Pereira (RHH OF, AAA/ML, MLB #75) … pretty tight ranking group so NYY should be willing to move one giving Preller some flexibility as to his preference

B. (Pick one) Hampton (RHP, AA, MLB #95) or Thorpe (RHP, AA, MLB #99) … again both ranked closely

Not all that sure that the NYY would part with two Top 100 prospects but the “overload” of not quite ready OF should free one up … then debate around the SP.

Note Pereira can play CF and should be a factor for 2024 and SP can jump from AA if needed … that gives some near term value to the Padres. I guess Padres could go for pitching only if they see Pauley/Marsee filling OF roles and go with Hampton and Thorpe … both with a chance to pitch in the ML in 2024 in the jump from AA.

Quote from MrPadre19 on October 26, 2023, 9:28 am

It may just be my desire to hold onto a generational talent like Soto but the Yanks prospects don't do much for me.

 

Quote from Randy Manese on October 26, 2023, 9:28 am

I'm with you on the Soto/Carpenter trade to the Yankees but would include Grisham.  This gives Padres about 43M less in salary/CBT.    Likewise, like the potential prospects return but I'm looking to push NY to include a rotation ready pitcher, which is why I cite King as a focal point.  Yankees have to know they will be in stiff competition for Soto so might go the extra mile, particularly, if they feel their chances for an extension are very good.  Dominguez likely won't play much in 2024 because of his TJ surgery so they won't miss him that much if included in the deal.

If you can land King  in the deal, the prospects are fine or even drop out a prospect SP since we probably have pitchers in our minors that will be equal to Hampton or Thorpe.  King has been used primarily in relief since his fractured elbow in 2021, but should be ready to take on more of a SP role like he was about to do in 2021 before his injury; he should be even better than Lugo or Martinez.  Even as a RP, $3M is a bargain for King, which is why he is a must include in a potential deal for me.   Instead of a top pitching prospect, I would try to go for a long-shot, Brando Mayea, another OF who is probably 4-5 years away but has great speed and one of the best recent international signees - sort of a Dillon Head but with more power potential.  With Dominguez, Zavala, Marsee, Pauley, Merrill, Bush Jr., Head and Mayea we should have a chain of potentially low cost OF prospects (Merrill and Pauley have INF flexibility) for years in the future to pair with Tatis, Jr.