Quote from BoosterSD on October 9, 2023, 10:48 am

Circling back to what SD might do in order to gain SP help, and lower salary at the same time, I saw an article on MLBTR that NYY might want to trade Gleyber Torres and his projected $15.3M in his last season of arbitration.

Torres is below average defensively at SS and 2B, and the aging LeMahieu is probably best suited now for 3B. And Peraza did not show enough this season to get penciled into the starting 2B job, and Cashman has to be nervous after not making the playoffs.

So could SD and NYY pull of kind of a monster trade?

NYY gets Soto, Cronenworth, and Carpenter. SD gets Torres, and the same prospects for a straight trade for Soto, something like Jones, and the pitchers Fenn mentioned. May have to include a mid level prospect from SD to NYY to take the Carpenter portion of the contract.

Then SD could deploy an INF of Machado, Bogaerts, Crone, and Cooper, and utilize Torres at DH. Of course, depending on the health of Machado to start the season, Torres starts at 2B, with Kim at 3B, and then realign when Machado can take the field. Of course, Torres can not entirely replace Soto's offense, but he did hit 25 HRs and 68 RBIs, with a .273 BA and .347 OBP and a OPS+ of 118.

The moving of Soto, Crone, and Carpenter is about $45.7M, and Torres would be about $15.3M leaving SD about $30M to deploy on SP, and bringing back Profar and Cooper. Plus, alleviating the long contract to Crone.

And of course, should Merrill be ready to start 2024 in SD; SD could look to flip Torres to someone else, and then save the entire $45.7M.

 

Quote from Jeremy Hill on October 9, 2023, 11:55 am

Quote from fenn68 on October 8, 2023, 9:03 am

Quote from Randy Manese on October 7, 2023, 12:48 pm

Thanks for the clarification - I forgot about the luxury tax impact.  Another reason to get the luxury tax down this year.

Although drafting without dropping 10 slots is preferable … Preller is probably not all that concerned consider how well they have drafted in the past three years … looking at the top prospect rankings

Merrill … 27th pick (2021) … HS

Snelling … 39th pick (2022) … HS

Lesko … 15th pick (2022) … HS

Mazur … 53rd pick (2022) … C

Head … 25th pick (2023) … HS

Then those are followed by picks post 2nd round in Pauley, Marsee, Martorella, Bush, Bergert.

Not bad results, so if dropping 10 slots to #25 gets them a better current ML team … can be seen as a good trade-off.

I think the drop in slot value is the real punishment. The difference between 15 and 25 was about 1.3m last year. That's a pretty big hit to the pool.

Quote from Jeremy Hill on October 10, 2023, 3:56 pm

The Mariners are an intriguing trade partner to me. They've got a good young rotation with Castillo, Kirby, Gilbert, Miller and Woo. Ray and Gonzales are coming back from injury and they have another solid MLB ready prospect in Hancock too. They also have a loaded bullpen with some more prospects closing in. Their biggest weakness by far was at 2B. Maybe there's a chance to move some of the IF prospects for a young arm there.

I've also suggested Cronenworth for Ray as the basis of a trade in the past. I also wonder if we could maybe "buy" a reliever by trading Carpenter for Gonzales and taking on the extra money. His salary jumps from 6.5m to 12m in the last guaranteed year of his contract. Carpenter is set to make 5.5m. Would they give up an arm to save 6.5m. There could be a chance for a traditional trade or more creative opportunities.

Quote from LynchMob on October 12, 2023, 9:22 am

Apologies if this was already posted ... but it's good enough to be repeated ...

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/10/offseason-outlook-san-diego-padres-14.html

Quote from Randy Manese on October 13, 2023, 12:25 pm

I originally projected Ohtani going to SF, but the more I think about it, the more I believe the Seattle Mariners can make the best case for Ohtani to achieve his goal of getting into the playoffs.  If he goes to SF, it's much like the situation with the Angels - they'll be a good team but with LA, SD and even Arizona in the division likely not get into the playoffs since the supporting cast in SF, both hitters and pitchers are not elite.  So, if Ohtani wants to stay on the West Coast and the Padres and Dodgers are out of it (both need pitching over hitting), I think Seattle is very attractive with a young good SP staff, and a line-up that can be tweaked to add just a little more punch to go along with Julio Rodriguez and JP Crawford.  For those reasons, I now believe Seattle (if Ohtani wants to stay on the West Coast) will be the most desirable location for Ohtani.

This pretty much opens up all the big spenders for a Soto trade so as the end of the World Series gets closer, we should hear more and more about what potential suitors will offer.  Still a slim chance Padres get an extension with Soto but we have too many other holes to fill, particularly in the starting rotation, to make that work under a prospective slimmed down budget.  If we hold onto him until the trade deadline, the return will be much less but if we're already significantly above .500 and pretty much a lock for the playoffs, then it may be worth it to reap what Soto can bring to the table during the first 4 months of the season.   All you need is more than one team with a good chance to get to the playoffs to pull off at least one top prospect coming over to SD at the trade deadline.

Quote from Randy Manese on October 17, 2023, 2:37 pm

While we Padres fans are waiting for the World Series to end so next day trading and free agency begins (Padres will have 5 days to exclusively deal with their Free Agents), I'm looking at their current "40-man" which consists of 27 Pitchers and 20 Position Players.  Before the 2024 40 man rosters are set in mid-November a whole lot of movement is going to occur, some pretty obvious, some likely to be very surprising.

Automatic Free Agents (9):  RP Garcia, RP Hader* SP R Hill, RP Pomeranz, SP Snell* // c Sanchez, DH Choi, 1b Cooper, OF Profar.   Can begin to negotiate with other teams 5 days after end of World Series. * = will receive a Qualifying Offer; players have until 15 Nov to accept

Likely Opt Outs to FA (2): SP Lugo, RP/SP N Martinez  - again, 5 days after conclusion of WS

Likely Club/Player Options to be exercised (2): SP Wacha (16M, also commits him for 2025), DH Carpenter (6M CBT) - also 5 days post WS

With 11 players off the roster, we are now down to 20 pitchers and 16 position players which gives Padres a little wiggle room to make decisions on what the roster will look like before the Non-tender date and 2024 40-man Roster setting date, which for all intents and purposes will occur simultaneously around the middle of November

If any of the Padres free agents are re-signed or they are successful in adding other free agents to the roster, the following rostered players could also be in play for release, non-tender or tendered but not offered arbitration (13):   RP Barlow, RP Carlton, RP Espada, SP Groome, SP Hernandez, RP T Hill, RP/SP Knehr, RP Morejon, SP/RP Otto // c Nola, C Seagle, OF Azocar, OF Kohlwey.  Barlow, Morejon and Azocar probably have the best chance to be retained unless salary structure is really really tight.

Currently, of those predicted to still be on the roster by mid-November I only have Grisham and Soto going to arbitration and both could be traded at any time after the WS ends.

By the time the GM Winter meetings begin in Nashville on 4 December, Padres 40 man could look a lot different AND remember for the 2021 season, the trades for Snell and Darvish were made in late December 2020 while Musgrove was traded for in mid-January 2021 so a lot could happen between now and when spring training opens.  Hope we don't move too many of our top minor league prospects, in particular Snelling and Lesko (and of course Merrill and Salas).

Unlikely to get much in Rule 5 (December 5) but Padres could add 3-5 eligible players to the roster to protect them from being drafted:  Most likely to be added are SP/RP Jairo Iriarte, RP Carter Loewen and c Brandon Valenzuela.

 

 

 

 

Quote from fenn68 on October 24, 2023, 9:27 pm

With the known FA and opt out decisions happening first … might not see the releasing of others early in the winter since most of the other low hanging fruit can be pruned as needed before the season if the roster slot is needed (or in some cases because they are out of minor league options).

As I recall on Cassavell’s piece on the future roster moves … he had a couple that I question (at least right now).

1. Potential non-tender of Breslow. Yes, $7MM seems a lot (but only for 1 year) and post-Hader are they really confident in end of the game with Suarez, Wilson, and Cosgrove … none having a long record of success. At last Breslow was good a couple of years back and did well after a rocky start with SD. Plus, unless he stinks really badly, the will always be a market for a veteran RP at the trade deadline. To get thru a 162 game season … with injures / overuse … need some veteran depth plus don’t see a wave of ML ready RP in the system for 2024.

2. Release Carpenter and eat his $6MM contract. Yeh, he is over the hill BUT have to pay him and there is a ton of roster space to keep him around through ST to be sure they actually can add an upgrade (as strange as that sounds). Maybe he can rebound enough to be serviceable. Make no move before its time. Manny’s surgery may keep him off 3B to start the season (Kim to 3B, Cronenworth to 2B? … Carpenter holds 1B until???). Then the “intangibles” … Preller gave him this contract and wanted him to play more (Melvin went the other way), Preller may dig in to give him another shot to be proven right … If Shildt is manger what did he think of Carpenter in StL?

3. Resign Profar on a minor league contract (or at league minimum). I am fine with the resigning but would think some team would do a lot better than that even for Profar’s limited production. Roster space it there (Boras is still his agent I think) …he gets a ML deal with incentives in my mind and not seeing much alternative in house the Padres actually need him.

Quote from fenn68 on October 24, 2023, 9:57 pm

We will not really know the detail but he driving force over the offseason will be the payroll budget (level and what they consider part of it … eg Hosmer?).

That directly leads to Soto (and maybe Grisham). Combined they eat about $38MM next season of a budget that may be already close to a lower budget target but lacks 3 SP and a bench. If the Padres have concluded they cannot extend Soto (either via internal budget or via Boras’ stance) are the compelled to deal him to free up money to spread around the many major holes on the roster. Can Machado, Bogaerts, Tatis, Campusano, Kim, Cronenworth provide the needed offense? Can Merrill, Pauley, and/or Marsee may the big jump to MLB and provide at least “average” support?

Pitching is the hole … and it will cost to fill three slots with legit ML talent (even if not adding elite arms) … opens the question as to whether they rush up Snelling (re: Weathers) at league minimum to balance out a better set of FA for #3/#4 roles. Somewhat long shots on any of the SP prospect being “ready” in 2024 but need and alternatives make for some unexpected decisions. Bergert? Iriate? Mazur? Maybe an ongoing rotation of call-ups / options for the #5 slot.

With a lower budget … we may not be seeing much in the way of major FA signings by the Padres and instead maybe a lot ore forced feeding of the prospects to fill out the roster.

Quote from brent wolff on October 25, 2023, 2:27 am

What is everyone's thoughts on a new manager now that Melvin is going to San Fran.  I hope this doesn't turn out like Bochy did, with him winning 3 rings in SF.

In house candidates are Schilt and Flaherty.  Of those two, I'd like to see Schilt get another shot, Flaherty is a little to young in my opinion.  I would expect Matt Williams and Ryan Christensen to leave with Melvin.  I'm sure Niebala will stay on as pitching coach.

I'd love to make a run at Skip Schumacher, not sure we can get him out of Miami as he did a really nice job there last year.  However, there front office is a mess after Jeter, then Ng leaving.

I'm hoping Siedler moves Preller to president of baseball ops and hires a new GM so he quits interfering with the on field managerial staff.  However, since we are trying to lower our debt ratio and our TV contract is a mess after Bally's went bankrupt for our rights, we might be stuck with Preller as our GM until his contract is done.