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OFFSEASON 2023-24

#241 · October 7, 2023, 10:46 am

Quote from Randy Manese on October 7, 2023, 10:46 am
At 32 (he'll be 33 at mid-season), Wacha is the youngest of the 3 pitchers and probably the most predictable in what you're going to get next year and possibly the year after. 16M seems a lot for 125-135 innings but these are usually quality innings vice a pitcher who might go 150-160+ and have worse stats/contributions to the winning column. Wacha knows he likely will not get more than 16M on the open market now and in the future, so my strategy with him is to offer another year, mutual option, at 12M/8M (sort of like he has now). I think that is a win-win situation, since that brings down the luxury tax a little and allows time for some of the internal options to develop.

Lugo is most likely the one to walk. He will be 34 when the season starts and likely wants a 2-3 year contract. Thinking he's looking for a multi-year contract in the 10-12M range for his last big payday. Given his big increase in workload in 2023 and age, he likely is out of the Padres' price range and strategy over the next couple of year. I consider him gone.

Martinez is an interesting case because he wants so badly to be a starting pitcher but the results have been just average or adequate when he does pitch in that role. He is valuable to the Padres staff because he can fill so many situational necessities and seems to have a rubber arm. While he is not worth 16M, could he be worth more than 8M? I would guess there are not many teams that consider him a prize catch as a SPat 33 years of age, so if he opts out, his value would have to be just as great to the new team rather than be an 8M RP. I'm thinking that the Padres offer to bump him up to 9M in 2024 and extend him, on a mutual option, for another 2 years.

That commits 25M to 2 of the 3 pitchers, both of whom are aging, and only 1 of which is likely to have 23-25 starts due to his injury history.

OR, alternatively, go after Yoshinobu Yamamoto, one of the premiere pitchers in Japan for about the same total money and find a cheaper internal arm to take Martinez' role. Yamamoto will only be 25 for most of 2024 and has pitched at least 171 innings the last 3 years (190 the two years prior to the WBC year). Great control and no history of arm troubles. Also, he would provide an experienced anchor for some of our younger pitchers, who will be worked into the rotation over the next 2-3 years as Darvish and Musgrove age. If he doesn't price himself out of the Padres budget and wants to sign with the Padres then that is my strategy. I know that's only 3 SPs, but then turn Preller lose to find some lower cost options with some of his trading chips, both on the major league and minor league rosters or even free agency. As I've said before, effective pitchers can come out of nowhere with just a little tweak in their delivery, release point, etc. It will certainly be an interesting off-season!

At 32 (he'll be 33 at mid-season), Wacha is the youngest of the 3 pitchers and probably the most predictable in what you're going to get next year and possibly the year after. 16M seems a lot for 125-135 innings but these are usually quality innings vice a pitcher who might go 150-160+ and have worse stats/contributions to the winning column. Wacha knows he likely will not get more than 16M on the open market now and in the future, so my strategy with him is to offer another year, mutual option, at 12M/8M (sort of like he has now). I think that is a win-win situation, since that brings down the luxury tax a little and allows time for some of the internal options to develop.

Lugo is most likely the one to walk. He will be 34 when the season starts and likely wants a 2-3 year contract. Thinking he's looking for a multi-year contract in the 10-12M range for his last big payday. Given his big increase in workload in 2023 and age, he likely is out of the Padres' price range and strategy over the next couple of year. I consider him gone.

Martinez is an interesting case because he wants so badly to be a starting pitcher but the results have been just average or adequate when he does pitch in that role. He is valuable to the Padres staff because he can fill so many situational necessities and seems to have a rubber arm. While he is not worth 16M, could he be worth more than 8M? I would guess there are not many teams that consider him a prize catch as a SPat 33 years of age, so if he opts out, his value would have to be just as great to the new team rather than be an 8M RP. I'm thinking that the Padres offer to bump him up to 9M in 2024 and extend him, on a mutual option, for another 2 years.

That commits 25M to 2 of the 3 pitchers, both of whom are aging, and only 1 of which is likely to have 23-25 starts due to his injury history.

OR, alternatively, go after Yoshinobu Yamamoto, one of the premiere pitchers in Japan for about the same total money and find a cheaper internal arm to take Martinez' role. Yamamoto will only be 25 for most of 2024 and has pitched at least 171 innings the last 3 years (190 the two years prior to the WBC year). Great control and no history of arm troubles. Also, he would provide an experienced anchor for some of our younger pitchers, who will be worked into the rotation over the next 2-3 years as Darvish and Musgrove age. If he doesn't price himself out of the Padres budget and wants to sign with the Padres then that is my strategy. I know that's only 3 SPs, but then turn Preller lose to find some lower cost options with some of his trading chips, both on the major league and minor league rosters or even free agency. As I've said before, effective pitchers can come out of nowhere with just a little tweak in their delivery, release point, etc. It will certainly be an interesting off-season!

#242 · October 7, 2023, 11:55 am

Padres current slotted at the #15 spot in the 2024 draft BUT have a 0.62 chance in the lottery to get the #1 pick - which is probably a lot better than my chances to win the 1.4B+ Powerball lottery! This year's draft doesn't seem to have quite the hype of last year's but the Padres have done very well in scouting players who can actually play the last couple of years and they should come out of this draft with another haul of good prospects as well as their usual finds of undrafted free agents. If you look at the top 100 Baseball America prospects, anywhere from #10 - 25 are where the Padres might land because a lot of the prospects are rated evenly. They could go the injured pitcher route, but don't really have that super arm like Lesko or even Williams that was available because of TJ surgery. This won't happen until July next year, so lots of time to further the current evaluations of these prospects.

#243 · October 7, 2023, 12:00 pm

Quote from fenn68 on October 7, 2023, 12:00 pm
Given their ages and 2023 performance ... if the Padres don't take the club option ... expect all three to decline the players options and at least test the FA market before considering any Padres offer ... this is likely the last chance for each to get a major multi-year deal. Have to see what other teams will offer. Assumption will be they can't do worse than their player option and likely what ever the Padres offer now. My guess is that all will be seeking total contract value of guaranteed money.

Their agents if nothing else will be looking at contracts given to Manaea, Clevinger, and a string of pitchers with lesser production and use that as a baseline for 2024 (and beyond) deals arguing their player performed substantially better. Since a LOT of teams want (need) to upgrade SP ... only need one to go that extra mile to jack up the cost. So, this may drag out as they work they way through the other team offers.

On Yamamoto ... been a lot of articles on him recently on his high ceiling and the MLB teams sending top scouts and even GM to Japan to watch him pitch ... all the big name guys ... but did not see the Padres mentioned (surprisingly). No this is the Padres, maybe they did their due diligence early ... made up their minds to pursue him and had no reason to scout him now plus they do have some permanent presence in Japan that may be giving them some under the radar updates.

If the Padres are remaining consistent with their past approach ... signing Yamamoto over the others is potentially the plan. Get the best ... a star who is young and impact ... pitches the most innings in a season ... controlled for a longer period (probably 5-6 years) ... and if they are shooting for the playoffs going deep and to the WS need three impact SP (Musgrove, Darvish, Yamamoto). The risk is the remaining two SP being weak and costing them regular season wins and missing the playoffs.

I was thinking that the Padres would have to commit about $40MM to fill those three slots with a proven set of ML SP ... potentially that could land Wacha, Lugo, and Martinez but would they be better off with Yamamoto and only one of the other three for that same $40MM ... then wing it for the #5 SP?

When does Preller pivot from his priority as the players drag out negotiations so he does not lose out on his fall back options and potentially end up with zip?

Yes, and interesting winter.

Given their ages and 2023 performance ... if the Padres don't take the club option ... expect all three to decline the players options and at least test the FA market before considering any Padres offer ... this is likely the last chance for each to get a major multi-year deal. Have to see what other teams will offer. Assumption will be they can't do worse than their player option and likely what ever the Padres offer now. My guess is that all will be seeking total contract value of guaranteed money.

Their agents if nothing else will be looking at contracts given to Manaea, Clevinger, and a string of pitchers with lesser production and use that as a baseline for 2024 (and beyond) deals arguing their player performed substantially better. Since a LOT of teams want (need) to upgrade SP ... only need one to go that extra mile to jack up the cost. So, this may drag out as they work they way through the other team offers.

On Yamamoto ... been a lot of articles on him recently on his high ceiling and the MLB teams sending top scouts and even GM to Japan to watch him pitch ... all the big name guys ... but did not see the Padres mentioned (surprisingly). No this is the Padres, maybe they did their due diligence early ... made up their minds to pursue him and had no reason to scout him now plus they do have some permanent presence in Japan that may be giving them some under the radar updates.

If the Padres are remaining consistent with their past approach ... signing Yamamoto over the others is potentially the plan. Get the best ... a star who is young and impact ... pitches the most innings in a season ... controlled for a longer period (probably 5-6 years) ... and if they are shooting for the playoffs going deep and to the WS need three impact SP (Musgrove, Darvish, Yamamoto). The risk is the remaining two SP being weak and costing them regular season wins and missing the playoffs.

I was thinking that the Padres would have to commit about $40MM to fill those three slots with a proven set of ML SP ... potentially that could land Wacha, Lugo, and Martinez but would they be better off with Yamamoto and only one of the other three for that same $40MM ... then wing it for the #5 SP?

When does Preller pivot from his priority as the players drag out negotiations so he does not lose out on his fall back options and potentially end up with zip?

Yes, and interesting winter.

#244 · October 7, 2023, 12:03 pm

Quote from Randy Manese on October 7, 2023, 11:55 am

Padres current slotted at the #15 spot in the 2024 draft BUT have a 0.62 chance in the lottery to get the #1 pick - which is probably a lot better than my chances to win the 1.4B+ Powerball lottery! This year's draft doesn't seem to have quite the hype of last year's but the Padres have done very well in scouting players who can actually play the last couple of years and they should come out of this draft with another haul of good prospects as well as their usual finds of undrafted free agents. If you look at the top 100 Baseball America prospects, anywhere from #10 - 25 are where the Padres might land because a lot of the prospects are rated evenly. They could go the injured pitcher route, but don't really have that super arm like Lesko or even Williams that was available because of TJ surgery. This won't happen until July next year, so lots of time to further the current evaluations of these prospects.

I thought the Padres get dropped back 10 slots for exceeding the Luxury Tax for so many years and /or the tier level?

ADD: Did some research and that -10 slots does not apply if they land one of the top 6 picks (long odds) but if they don't their 1st round pick drops to #25.

The actually lottery is in about 2 months (probably with the Annual Meetings).

So, do we feel lucky?

#245 · October 7, 2023, 12:48 pm

Thanks for the clarification - I forgot about the luxury tax impact. Another reason to get the luxury tax down this year.

#246 · October 7, 2023, 4:26 pm

Quote from Randy Manese on October 7, 2023, 4:26 pm
Beyond Ohtani, it looks like there are no high value bats available in free agency. If you're looking for an impact trade, then the Padres certainly have the #1 candidate in Soto and he, vice Ohtani, may actually be preferred because of his youth and being relatively injury free. If we assume Ohtani would like to stay on the West Coast and won't sign with either the Angels or the Padres, then we're probably looking at the Dodgers, Mariners and SF as the likely landing spot. I think SF has the edge because the Dodgers also really need to get some SP's and may be more focused on Snell, Nola and/or Yamamoto than Ohtani, who likely won't pitch at all in 2024. SF missed out on all the top FA last year, so this may be year they get lucky. Mariners would love to have him but they are still are a small market team and may not be able to put that much money in one player.

That leaves the two NY teams, both of which had as disappointing a season as the Padres, and a team like the Cubs, who could easily win the NL Central with a bat like Soto in the lineup vice Bellinger. They still have other holes but they are way under the cap, so if they are not still trying to string out the fans at Wrigley any longer, they could get they best hitter they've had since the "enhanced" Sosa. Unless, there is a sign and trade deal, don't think we can get Crow-Armstrong (Cubs #1 prospect), but we probably can get OF Kevin Alcantara (#4 prospect) and LHPs Jackson Ferris (SP & #8) and Luke Little (RP & #25). I liked what I saw of Alcantara ( RH batter) in games against the Ft Wayne TinCaps and with a little more strength and experience, he could be a 30 HR guy with a decent (255+) average. I'd like to get another LHP into the organization and Ferris looks very solid; Little can hit 100 mph but still needs refinement - a lefty with that kind of gas could be very good in the pen. A lot of IF's in this analysis, but off-season is a time to dream and this trade will free up some much needed money to shore up our SP. Of course, we'll need to find an everyday OF, but that's another story for speculation.

Beyond Ohtani, it looks like there are no high value bats available in free agency. If you're looking for an impact trade, then the Padres certainly have the #1 candidate in Soto and he, vice Ohtani, may actually be preferred because of his youth and being relatively injury free. If we assume Ohtani would like to stay on the West Coast and won't sign with either the Angels or the Padres, then we're probably looking at the Dodgers, Mariners and SF as the likely landing spot. I think SF has the edge because the Dodgers also really need to get some SP's and may be more focused on Snell, Nola and/or Yamamoto than Ohtani, who likely won't pitch at all in 2024. SF missed out on all the top FA last year, so this may be year they get lucky. Mariners would love to have him but they are still are a small market team and may not be able to put that much money in one player.

That leaves the two NY teams, both of which had as disappointing a season as the Padres, and a team like the Cubs, who could easily win the NL Central with a bat like Soto in the lineup vice Bellinger. They still have other holes but they are way under the cap, so if they are not still trying to string out the fans at Wrigley any longer, they could get they best hitter they've had since the "enhanced" Sosa. Unless, there is a sign and trade deal, don't think we can get Crow-Armstrong (Cubs #1 prospect), but we probably can get OF Kevin Alcantara (#4 prospect) and LHPs Jackson Ferris (SP & #8) and Luke Little (RP & #25). I liked what I saw of Alcantara ( RH batter) in games against the Ft Wayne TinCaps and with a little more strength and experience, he could be a 30 HR guy with a decent (255+) average. I'd like to get another LHP into the organization and Ferris looks very solid; Little can hit 100 mph but still needs refinement - a lefty with that kind of gas could be very good in the pen. A lot of IF's in this analysis, but off-season is a time to dream and this trade will free up some much needed money to shore up our SP. Of course, we'll need to find an everyday OF, but that's another story for speculation.

#247 · October 8, 2023, 7:17 am

Quote from fenn68 on October 8, 2023, 7:17 am
A mental exercise on SP alternative strategies assuming Musgrove and Darvish are in place and three slots are open to be filled. Depending on the payroll limit ... all will have some impact on retaining existing roster players being retained. More combos but consider:

Scenario #1: resign on 2 year deals Wacha (32 ...$14MM AAV), Lugo (34 ... $12MM), and Martinez (33 ... $10MM) ... total commitment in 2024 $36MM.

Scenario #2: resign Snell on a 6 year deal (31 ... $30MM AAV ... $180MM), Martinez ($10MM) ... fill #5 with Waldron / Avila / new minimum salary arm ... total commitment in 2024 $41MM

Scenario #3: sign Yamamoto on a 5 year deal (25 ... $25MM AAV ... $125MM), Wacha ($14MM), ... fill #5 with Waldron / Avila / new minimum salary arm ... total commitment in 2024 $40MM.

Scenario #4: resign Snell ($30MM) and sign Yamamoto ($25MM) ... fill #5 with Waldron / Avila / new minimum salary arm ... total commitment in 2024 $56MM. Expect this scenario will force trading some salary off the current roster to make it fit the payroll limit ... probably Soto and/or some combo of Suarez / Barlow. However, does lock in 4 potentially elite SP in for the next four years taking pressure off the internal prospects to develop quickly (and en masse). Allows some to debut as RP (Bergert, Iriate, Mazur?) if Snellinig lands the#5 SP slot.

Trying to balance payroll ... offense / pitching ... winning in 2024 / winning beyond 2024 ... true potential of prospects supporting offense / pitching in 2024 and beyond.

Should add the debate between Snell and Yamamoto is legit. Snell is older and will be more expensive while being generally very good (elite in 2023) has an inconsistent history in the ML. However, he is delivering at the MLB level in SD so maybe a bit more predictability going forward. Yamamoto is younger and lower cost and has high upside but has proven nothing at the MLB level and carries the unknown as to how long he may need to make the transition to pitching in the ML under ML conditions. If you want to win in 2024 who is the bigger risk to under perform expectations?

?????????????????

A mental exercise on SP alternative strategies assuming Musgrove and Darvish are in place and three slots are open to be filled. Depending on the payroll limit ... all will have some impact on retaining existing roster players being retained. More combos but consider:

Scenario #1: resign on 2 year deals Wacha (32 ...$14MM AAV), Lugo (34 ... $12MM), and Martinez (33 ... $10MM) ... total commitment in 2024 $36MM.

Scenario #2: resign Snell on a 6 year deal (31 ... $30MM AAV ... $180MM), Martinez ($10MM) ... fill #5 with Waldron / Avila / new minimum salary arm ... total commitment in 2024 $41MM

Scenario #3: sign Yamamoto on a 5 year deal (25 ... $25MM AAV ... $125MM), Wacha ($14MM), ... fill #5 with Waldron / Avila / new minimum salary arm ... total commitment in 2024 $40MM.

Scenario #4: resign Snell ($30MM) and sign Yamamoto ($25MM) ... fill #5 with Waldron / Avila / new minimum salary arm ... total commitment in 2024 $56MM. Expect this scenario will force trading some salary off the current roster to make it fit the payroll limit ... probably Soto and/or some combo of Suarez / Barlow. However, does lock in 4 potentially elite SP in for the next four years taking pressure off the internal prospects to develop quickly (and en masse). Allows some to debut as RP (Bergert, Iriate, Mazur?) if Snellinig lands the#5 SP slot.

Trying to balance payroll ... offense / pitching ... winning in 2024 / winning beyond 2024 ... true potential of prospects supporting offense / pitching in 2024 and beyond.

Should add the debate between Snell and Yamamoto is legit. Snell is older and will be more expensive while being generally very good (elite in 2023) has an inconsistent history in the ML. However, he is delivering at the MLB level in SD so maybe a bit more predictability going forward. Yamamoto is younger and lower cost and has high upside but has proven nothing at the MLB level and carries the unknown as to how long he may need to make the transition to pitching in the ML under ML conditions. If you want to win in 2024 who is the bigger risk to under perform expectations?

?????????????????

#248 · October 8, 2023, 7:54 am

In a similar vein ... Profar vs Barlow ($7.1MM).

Consider the 8th / 9th inning roles currently appear to be manned by Suarez ($10MM ... long contract), Barlow ($7.1MM ... FA after 2024), Wilson (minimum), and Cosgrove (minimum). No clear internal options who may step up.

Then consider after the core eight position players the 9th "regular" seems to be falling to Carpenter / Batten as DH with no clear internal option who is ready.

So, given the payroll constraints and the need to strengthen 3 SP slots ... are they better off moving Barlow and signing Profar (probably for a bit less) to balance the team?

#249 · October 8, 2023, 8:32 am

If it simply is a choice between Profar and Barlow? Profar every day, and twice on Sunday!

Relief pitchers are generally failed starters ( at some point) so are a dime a dozen. Guys that play multiple defensive positions, hit from both sides of the plate, and obviously elevates a locker room, are unicorns.

Go with the unicorn.

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#250 · October 8, 2023, 9:03 am

Quote from Randy Manese on October 7, 2023, 12:48 pm

Thanks for the clarification - I forgot about the luxury tax impact. Another reason to get the luxury tax down this year.

Although drafting without dropping 10 slots is preferable … Preller is probably not all that concerned consider how well they have drafted in the past three years … looking at the top prospect rankings

Merrill … 27th pick (2021) … HS

Snelling … 39th pick (2022) … HS

Lesko … 15th pick (2022) … HS

Mazur … 53rd pick (2022) … C

Head … 25th pick (2023) … HS

Then those are followed by picks post 2nd round in Pauley, Marsee, Martorella, Bush, Bergert.

Not bad results, so if dropping 10 slots to #25 gets them a better current ML team … can be seen as a good trade-off.

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