Quote from MrPadre19 on October 6, 2023, 1:40 pm

IMO we aren't going to miss the Playoffs because Grisham is our #9 hitter.

We have enough "stars" in the lineup that his defense and bunting ability etc in the 9 hole should be fine.

We have much bigger issues with the rotation and Pen to worry about.

I could see 1-2 prospects in the rotation and a couple in the Pen as well if we indeed need to stay around $200 mil.

Keep Soto and go for it one more time.

The Soto trade was about winning a World Series in the next 3 years....next year is year 3.

 

 

Quote from BoosterSD on October 6, 2023, 2:10 pm

Quote from MrPadre19 on October 6, 2023, 1:40 pm

IMO we aren't going to miss the Playoffs because Grisham is our #9 hitter.

True, but I understand Fenn and others point of view, that $5M is a lot to spend on less than league average production at the plate. Especially if you think Grisham's defense is over rated as well.

So, can you save yourself $4M that can go towards resigning Wacha, Lugo, Martinez, or another ML SP. And go with Azocar in CF, because he can handle the defense, and will provide at least what Grisham does at the plate, for league minimum?

Or is Grisham worth the $5M for his defense and sporadic HRs?

Quote from Randy Manese on October 6, 2023, 2:19 pm

I'd like to keep Barlow, if possible, to provide some experience in the bullpen.  7.1M may be thought of as too much, but he'll only be 31 and outside of a bad 2023 in KC, had solid performances from 2020-2022; pitched much better in SD.  I'd try to sign him to an incentive based contract vice arbitration with Saves and Holds the categories that potentially could drive up a base salary and one that possibly covers 2 years, with the second year being a player option.  If we can get him for around 6.5M, I think that would be a good investment.  Remember, if we lose Hader (14.1M this year), Pomeranz (10M), Garcia (3.75M), T Hill (1.85M) and possibly Nick Martinez (8M) out of the bullpen (a total of 37.7M), the experience that Barlow brings, even at 7.1M, may be worth it since he'll likely be surrounded with guys, other than Suarez, who are all pre-arbitration arms or have been erratic enough over the past two years to land in Free Agency.  Consistent bullpen performers, like Barlow, are worth keeping and I especially want to keep him for at least another year since it cost us Henry Williams, who is going to be a very good SP for KC in a couple of years.

So, I'm for keeping Barlow and adding him into closer mix with Suarez, Wilson and possibly Cosgrove; dark horse here is Iriarte, who might eventually take over that role since it's almost 100% certain he'll be on the 40 man roster vice being exposed to the Rule 5 draft.  In the meantime, he could assume the role Nick Martinez has if Martinez opts out.  An even darker horse is Paplham - but first let's see how he does in the AFL.

Quote from BoosterSD on October 6, 2023, 2:29 pm

Quote from Randy Manese on October 6, 2023, 2:19 pm

I'd like to keep Barlow, if possible, to provide some experience in the bullpen.

I agree, with the salary "limitations" that are going to be in place this offseason here in SD, we are going to have to rely on some young, inexperienced arms. So having a steading influence outside of Suarez would be a good idea.

And in the sum of things, $7.1M for an experienced, ML closer is not a bad deal.

Quote from fenn68 on October 6, 2023, 2:38 pm

The challenge in all this is the trade offs to build a better, more complete roster under whatever the payroll budget turns out to be. So, a good chance some players who we can see value in keeping have to be moved to create payroll for a greater need. Have to look at move from the full team perspective … and holding on players X, Y, Z while not filling some of the three SP slots with legit ML arms might create a larger problem than what would be caused by replacement for X, Y, Z. Tricky judgement in projecting all the players involved.

Personally would keep Barlow and trade Suarez to get out of his long term deal. In 2024, I have no idea who would be the better closer but to save payroll … one should go and roll the dice on Wilson and some unknown to provide RP depth. Is the bullpen that critical if the SP stinks?.

Quote from Randy Manese on October 6, 2023, 2:45 pm

I'm over Grisham, Nola and even Cronenworth (although the extension may keep him a Padre for awhile longer).  All 3 have gone backwards after decent 1st years in 2020.  I still hope Cronenworth can return to the swing he had when he came up, but that's both a mental and physical adjustment, so I'm not sure he'll ever get to that level again.

I would move Tatis to CF and work on my corner spots.  Profar is not a great OF or a great offensive player but he is a key to the vibes in the clubhouse and can be versatile enough at a lower price point to keep out of free agency; 5.5M tops?  I kind of like Cooper because his RISP of .330 this year and .328 in 2021 with Miami, indicate he has a clutch bat.  He also is probably in that 5.5M range and probably an either/or between him and Profar.  Yes, Azocar is cheap and good defensively, however, I think Pauley and Marsee (and Merrill, if moved to the OF) are already better hitters than Azocar.

My comments assume Soto is still with the team in either LF or RF.  If not, then I'd use part of that money to secure an established bat at a relatively low price who potentially can outperform all of these options both immediately and possibly over time, Jung-hoo Lee.  I think he can be had for less than 10M and would give us that luxury of having only to fill one other everyday OF spot with a degree of consistent performance vice possibly two if Soto is traded.  Lee, however, may also prove too expensive in the new salary reality structure of the Padres so we'll see where that is going.  Further, if the money is needed for pitching, it will take quite a bit (around 25M) to get somebody like an Aaron Nola or Yamamoto if we don't keep Wacha, Lugo/or N Martinez so Lee may not be a consideration if that comes to bear.

Quote from WindsorUK on October 7, 2023, 5:16 am

Okay, here in lies a great deal of what I believe is wrong with Preller:

“If you’re gonna win a World Series, you need to have supremely talented players and a lot of them,” Preller said

Taken from an article in the SDUT.

First,  I believe EVERY player who has ever worn an MLB jersey is supremely talented at baseball. You don't make it to the show being less so.

Secondly, our beautiful game is LOADED with World Series champions and WS MVP's that say that is just not true( Greatest moment in WS history? San Diego's own Don Larsen's perfect game. And we all remember Hall of Fame bound Steve Pearce, the 2018 WS MVP?)

We all love to look at guys stats on the back of baseball cards( hell, as a kid, I prided myself on MEMORIZING all of them!) but we're just mere fanatics. The job of the guy in charge of baseball operations is to field a TEAM, not a roster of glorifed stat collectors. Do the Angels win the 2006 WS without Dave Eckstein? How about the '21 Braves without Jorge Soler? The Miracle Mets in '69 without Donn Clendenon? Again, all MLB worthy players but none what you would refer to as 'stars'( or supremely talented)

AJ desperately needs to sit down with Melvin and ask him who he thinks fits with our current cast of characters. They all can't be stars.

Quote from fenn68 on October 7, 2023, 6:45 am

In the next 3-4 weeks the Padres need to set some of their strategy for the off-season … FA starts 5 days after the World Series (and I believe that is also the date for club/player options to be exercised).

First and foremost the organization needs to set the payroll budget (and the parameters around that).

Second in my mind they need to make a call on the future of Soto (and $33MM in 2024). Part of that is their discussions with Boras on the potential for an extension (and at what price). Given Boras does not like to do extensions in a player’s final year and clearly wants the biggest contract of all time … Padres may be down to Soto for 1 year / $33MM or deal Soto and save $33MM to redeploy in 2024 (plus get prospects). The budget combined with the other needs to complete the roster will have to be part of the decision.

Third, make a call on club options on Wacha and Martinez. Most seem to agree … just looking at the individual in isolation … $32MM/2 years ($16MM AAV) is too much for either of these pitchers. Then consider that with the budget limits and the call on Soto and the fact that only Musgrove and Darvish are retuning for the starting 5. Martinez’ club option should be declined but Wacha’s might be the real question. Looking at his history of injury (in the last four full seasons he has only gone 24-23-23-24 starts … and at 32 that level is likely the probable level), does pitching 2/3rds of a season justify the money? On the other hand, during the last two seasons for starters with 250+ innings he has the 22nd best ERA and basically rolls up wins. When you are looking for three SP … with zero guarantee they can sign equivalent productivity … do they pay the “extra premium’ to someone they control to insure they have a quality 3rd SP?

Then at that time the Padres will know on the player options for Wacha, Martinez, Lugo, and Carpenter … all impact the room within the budget.

FA starts 5 days after the World Series and with the above, Preller can move directly to trades, FA pursuits, and non-tender calls with a clear picture of needs and budget flexibilty.

Quote from fenn68 on October 7, 2023, 7:46 am

With all that in the above post considered … and most seem to focus on the keep / move on with position players … need to be really concerned about SP if they plan to contend in 2024 and even an improved offense will not cover the lack of ML quality SP after Musgrove / Darvish. Should force Preller to make some moves that we may not like.

Consider what is being lost in SP:

1. Snell … 30 starts / 180 innings … 2.25 ERA

2. Lugo … 26 starts / 146 innings … 3.57 ERA

3. Wacha … 24 starts / 134 innings … 3.22 ERA

4. Martinez … 9 starts / 43 innings … 2.32 ERA

What internally in the wings:

a. Avila … 6 starts / 26 innings … 4.91 ERA …

b. Waldron … 6 starts / 32 innings … 4.55 ERA.

c. (40 man): Morejon … 29 innings in the minors … 6.14 ERA … always injured.

d. (40 man): Otto … 11 ML RP (10.33 ERA) … 35 Mil innings (4.11 ERA).

e. (40 man): Groome …. MiL 30 starts / 134 innings … 8.55 ERA … truly bad.

f. (Non-roster): prime names don’t even have a full AA season … Snelling, Iriate, Mazur

Have to question even one of these next up arms are even close stepping up to become a quality regular SP in 2024 and consider need three plus another two to fill for IL stints.

Can always hope on some but hope may lead them to a 90 loss season with this group …