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OFFSEASON 2023-24
#221 · October 5, 2023, 12:10 pm
Quote from WindsorUK on October 5, 2023, 11:40 amSnell or Wacha/Lugo/Martinez for 2024?
What does the cost look like?
Not a TOTAL Snell fan( doesn't go deep enough, often enough, gets mentally frazzled too easy when not on) but can't argue a 2 time CY award winner.
Are 3 better than 1? Can we get 70+ starts out of the other 3?
As has been mentioned in the SDUT, maybe time the Pads hire an actual GM to work with Melvin( let AJ oversee drafts and baseball ops), find out the best FIT of players for our 40 man, BEFORE spending money.
My guess, Snell approaches the $27M per year deal that Carlos Rondon got last offseason.
Wacha, Lugo, and Martinez will probably get an average between $12-15M each, so you could get two for the same money as Snell. You could probably get all 3 for around $39M combined, and that would be a better option over just Snell on his own.
Since the $200M payroll is probably the cash number; not the AAV number, you could probably offer all three a 3 year deal for about $40M each, and stagger the amounts something like $10M in 2024, $13M in 2025, and $17M in 2026 so SD could have a SP staff and keep Soto for this season. Giving them one last run with a loaded team in 2024.
#222 · October 5, 2023, 12:41 pm
Have to consider that Snell will require at least a 6-7 year deal (he will get that from some team) … so signing him a $27-30MM/yr also creates a longer term problem … both with AAV and Cash since both Tatis and Machado are not having their big money kick in for a few more years.
At least Wacha, Lugo, and Martinez will be in the 2-3 year range … cover three slots while the internal prospects mature … have to believe Snelling and Lesko at a minimum will be impacting in 2025-26 … but not 2024.
Add that Snell will likely get a full (or partial) no trade while not the others … making them moveable near the end of their deals if needed more easily.
So, if they can land all three at about $39MM AAV on 2-3 year deals, that probably is better for 2024 giving the Padres the best chance to win #1-5 starters with Waldron / Avila and the back-up (and we will need them for that roll). Better in long haul with the low cost prospects taking over to make room for the larger future cash salaries for Tatis and Machado.
Still to “add” $39MM to my estimate and stay near $200MM … some players (with decent contracts) have to be moved and replaced cheaper with useful quality plus fill some other existing holes (eg DH/bench). That probably means they don’t sign all three and go with Waldron and/or Avila for the bottom of the rotation and hope Snelling / Iriate / Mazur have a great minor league 1st half for a mid-season boost. Probably see a low end FA seeking to rebound for little money. (Big ST scramble for SP slots).
The big alternative to fit in all three … trade Soto and his money would cover most of the money and more money would still be on the table for LF/DH/bench without trying to trade Kim, Suarez, Grisham, Nola, Cronenworth, Barlow. IF 2023 was burdened by being “top heavy” and not a complete roster …keeping Soto and going short again on pitching / bench / et al … has a good chance of giving them the same result.
Not going to be an easy job for the front office … plus add the the players / agents have their agenda that might not be in sync with Preller’s agenda (and certainly not what the fans think can / should happen).
#223 · October 5, 2023, 1:49 pm
It seems to me that all of the talk of significant payroll reduction is coming from the same sources that said Melvin and Preller were done with each other. I think it might be just as overblown. I don't think we're exceeding the top threshold again. I'm not convinced we're dropping 50m+ either.
#224 · October 5, 2023, 2:09 pm
Quote from Jeremy Hill on October 5, 2023, 1:49 pmIt seems to me that all of the talk of significant payroll reduction is coming from the same sources that said Melvin and Preller were done with each other. I think it might be just as overblown. I don't think we're exceeding the top threshold again. I'm not convinced we're dropping 50m+ either.
In Preller's ZOOM he said they have not been given a budget yet ... my guess is that Siedler and the financial side are still doing 2024 projections of revenues and non-player cost including non baseball operations. Sort of need the big picture first before dividing up the pie.
So, agree $200MM is not locked in stone. However, "lower" (certainly not "higher") seems to be the probable outcome. How much lower may be a function of where that money gets spent ... maybe a bracket budget ... $XXX is for the payroll but could go higher IF they get a deal on a specific player they really value long term (eg Soto long term or Snell). Hypothetically $200MM without Snell but $230MM with Snell ... just don't spend that $30MM on just "normal" bodies. Essentially factors in a long term value of a major signing.
#225 · October 5, 2023, 3:22 pm
I wonder if this trade would work for both teams, should Preller thinks that Soto will walk away from SD after 2024.
NYY gets Soto, Carpenter, and Grisham. SD gets OFers Jones and Mayea, and SPs Warren. Would save SD about $40M± in cash payroll, and Warren should be able to help the rotation in 2024.
#226 · October 5, 2023, 3:46 pm
Quote from BoosterSD on October 5, 2023, 3:22 pmI wonder if this trade would work for both teams, should Preller thinks that Soto will walk away from SD after 2024.
NYY gets Soto, Carpenter, and Grisham. SD gets OFers Jones and Mayea, and SPs Warren. Would save SD about $40M± in cash payroll, and Warren should be able to help the rotation in 2024.
Probably would work for the NYY (a bit depends on their returning payroll) but getting Soto and Grisham as LHH in Yankee Stadium to fill two major holes in their line-up seems appealing. With Jones a few years out ... Mayea a long way out ... and Warren their 3rd best pitching prospect not giving any immediate help and all have the risk of not developing. Padres win on the salary savings to redeploy for a more balanced roster.
If I were Preller and wanting to win sooner than later ... might see if I could maybe change the mix to get Thorpe (or Hampton) both ranked higher in AA ... maybe drop from Jones (their #1 but in A ball) and shift to Pereira (their #3 but ML ready and a CF option ... but not expecting full impact in 2024 so some risk). Might even go with Warren and one of Thorpe or Hamption.
NYY seem to be a prime candidate for Soto. As I suggested before ... would not rule out TOR (probably not happy about their bump from the playoffs ... have money ... and probably expect BALT/TB to be less dominate in 2024 ... and keeps Soto from NYY.
Two other more long shots ... METS ... it is Cohen who will spend ... new GM President / GM in Stearns and soon a new manager in Counsell ... dropping some payroll. Then the real wild card ... MIA ... very very low payroll with a quality pitching staff but poor offense yet make the playoffs ... and got bumped.
#227 · October 6, 2023, 9:09 am
Just saw MLBTR's prediction for salary arbitration for 2024. They are usually fairly accurate.
Soto - $33M, Barlow - $7.1M, Grisham - $4.9M, Hill T - $2.4M, Nola, $2.35M, Morejon - $.9M for a total of $50.65M for all arbitration eligible players.
#228 · October 6, 2023, 10:01 am
Quote from BoosterSD on October 6, 2023, 9:09 amJust saw MLBTR's prediction for salary arbitration for 2024. They are usually fairly accurate.
Soto - $33M, Barlow - $7.1M, Grisham - $4.9M, Hill T - $2.4M, Nola, $2.35M, Morejon - $.9M for a total of $50.65M for all arbitration eligible players.
A little higher than I expected across the board.
If you want to redeploy money to get a more significant piece (eg SP) could the Padres get minimum cost replacements for Barlow, Grisham, Hill, Nola, and Morejon who would not be worse … save net about $13MM to put elsewhere? Trade - non tender - DFA?
#229 · October 6, 2023, 11:08 am
Quote from fenn68 on October 6, 2023, 10:01 amQuote from BoosterSD on October 6, 2023, 9:09 amJust saw MLBTR's prediction for salary arbitration for 2024. They are usually fairly accurate.
Soto - $33M, Barlow - $7.1M, Grisham - $4.9M, Hill T - $2.4M, Nola, $2.35M, Morejon - $.9M for a total of $50.65M for all arbitration eligible players.
A little higher than I expected across the board.
If you want to redeploy money to get a more significant piece (eg SP) could the Padres get minimum cost replacements for Barlow, Grisham, Hill, Nola, and Morejon who would not be worse … save net about $13MM to put elsewhere? Trade - non tender - DFA?
I dont think I would sweat the $900K for Morejon, as I think he could still have some value next season, and the league minimum should be close to $800K next season anyway, so $100K is nothing.
But yeah, via trade or DFA, I could see anyone of Barlow, Grisham, Hill, and especially Nola not on the team next season.
#230 · October 6, 2023, 12:22 pm
Outside of Soto and Morejon, happily let the others go.
Money could certainly be allocated better.
Lots of minimum wage guys to replicate what those guys gave us.