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OFFSEASON 2023-24
#211 · October 2, 2023, 4:33 pm
With Cronenworth the contract issue is the 7 year commitment for 2B who has had declining production in each of his last three years … and then “hoping” he can rebound to being just above average.
He has gone from OPS of .800 (2021) to .722 (2022) to .690 (2023) … so 2023 is not just a one off season and he will be 30 next season so the deal with an $11+MM AAV through age 36 is just a bad bet. The past two years suggest he is a below average offensive player … age likely will not get him much better (if at all).
Don’t know who brought up the idea within the Padres to extend Cronenworth when he had declining production and was controlled for multiple years via arbitration … then the years were just unjustified. Who brought up the idea … who approved it thinking it was a good ideal? Last winter was filled with very bad contract decisions.
Given the current roster … and the good chance Soto gets traded to open payroll space … the idea of moving one of Bogaerts, Kim, or Cronenworth to the OF and add a serviceable 1B and fix SP might be the best route for the team for 2024. Also, need to keep in the back of their minds that Kim is a FA after 2024 and no reason to be confident they can (or want to) re-sign him on what should be a pretty long, high cost contract given his age, defense, and emerging offense at a high value position of SS.
#212 · October 2, 2023, 4:47 pm
On the potential of trading Soto … forgot who but heard a national type project that the Padres could get from a team 2 of their top 15 prospects. That is pretty vague and depends a lot on the minor league system that team has. However, if that seems like a light player return … have to factor in the need of dropping $30MM and what can be done with that to build a better TEAM for now and beyond 2024.
My guess is that Preller would hold out for at least 1 TOP 100 type (likely in the 50-100 range) near ML ready and the second piece would be a further away upside guy.
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Finding a buyer is not going to be easy for 1 year of a $30MM player no matter how good he is. The buyer has to think Soto will be a playoff difference maker in 2024 … actually need a LF/DH as a priority … and have the money to cover.
NYY have been tossed around a lot (really need a LHH LF and were just out of the WC), NYM maybe just because of Cohen being a free spender and shaking up the team with a new VP in Sterns and a new Mgr. I will add TOR to the mix … a team just into the WC but could see vulnerability in 2024 with BALT, TB, NYY, BOST giving them a shot at the title. After those teams .. not sure who has the need … money … desire. Lack of buyers alone may lower the return.
#213 · October 3, 2023, 2:16 pm
The more I hear ... somewhat supported by team actions ... is that a CASH payroll near $200MM is going to be the reality. Bundling the loss of TV revenue, Padres going from a receiver of revenue sharing to a payer, the out of compliance with the league required debit ratio, and what is appearing to be a lower re-up of season tickets for 2024 ... makes a pretty compelling case along with previous reports from Manfred, some other owners, and even CEO Greupner and Siedler said that the current high spending level are not likely to be a long term sustainable level. Seems that all the conditions suggest that drop to $200MM+/- is just reality.
Supporting that is in the current year end meetings ... all reports (because of health) Siedler is involved but passing more responsibility to Erik Greupner and Eric Kutsenda (for Siedler Partners) to run the organization. Both of them are businessmen first and that usually leads to not planning to lose money ... even in the short run.
So, as we (and the Padres) try to fit this team into that window ... really need to set the "we are here" starting point before suggesting we sign / re-sign everyone ... or resist trading anyone.
To that end, tried to come to that starting point with the returning players (contracted and made some ARB calls) ... without the FA and assuming Wacha, Lugo, and Martinez are gone (options declined) but Carpenter returns (he takes his player option).
So START: $189MM ... that does not leave much room for much "upgrades".
Does that make the Soto trade enviable? Not going to win with Soto and only two experience ML SP plus a big drop-off after the top 8 position players.
If cutting payroll is a prime objective ... should Grisham (at about $4MM) be given away (DFA or token return in a trade), should they try to tie Carpenter to the Soto trade to save about another $5.5MM), does it make a Kim deal more feasible ($8MM) thinking they will (cannot) pay him past 2024, do they put Suarez ($10MM) or Barlow (about $6MM) on the block, DFA Nola ($1-2MM)?
Take whatever is cut under $200MM and redeploy it on SP and mid-range upgrades in more needed roles ... plus gamble a bit on prospects (internal or via trade).
#214 · October 4, 2023, 11:20 am
Zoom Press Conference at 11:45 ... key note Preller is running it. Apparently no Melvin or Siedler (or the other leadership).
Could go a few ways ... appears that Preller is in full control as the spokesman and the absence of Melvin might signal his departure OR the organization just wanted to avoid questions focusing on their conflict. On the other hand (very unlikely) the organization is giving Preller the courtesy of announcing his departure on his own.
Somewhat odd (which leads to some one off speculation) is that MLB is pretty adamant that teams do not make major announcements during the playoffs on dates when games are being played ... so this timing is counter to that directive.
#215 · October 4, 2023, 11:21 am
Preller is having an end of season presser in about 25 minutes. He's definitely staying.
#216 · October 4, 2023, 11:45 am
I believe Preller will indicate that there are going to be hard choices/decisions to be made on the composition of the 2024 roster, however, the Padres' organization, from Seidler on down, believe this is still a playoff team and that he will be working to put together a roster that will compete at a high level.
#217 · October 4, 2023, 12:27 pm
Sort of a nothing event … other than just holding it (with Preller) does take some of the steam out of some of the speculation going forward (but as we know … speculation never stops).
#218 · October 4, 2023, 2:05 pm
From using roster resource via the fangraphs website, here are the cash values SD has for the 2024 season.
Guaranteed Contracts to Machado, Bogaerts, Tatis, Musgrove, Darvish, Suarez, Kim, and Cronenworth - $115.6M.
Player options to Martinez, Lugo, Wacha, and Carpenter - $27.5M.
Salary Arbitration to the following (estimates based on 2023 with bumps) Soto - $30M, Barlow - $7.5M, Hill T - $2.75M, Grisham - $4.5M, Nola - $3.25M, Morejon - $1.75M. For a total of $49.75M.
Thats $192.85M not counting the $12.8M to Hosmer for 2024 and then 2025 as well. Not sure if Seidler would count that or not.
If yoy count the Hosmer money, that is $205.6M for 2024. So either the team needs to trade out some money, or be ready to fill out the balance of the roster with league minimum rookies, and that would still push SD to over $210M.
#219 · October 4, 2023, 2:40 pm
We are pretty close on the numbers (except I start with the options for Wacha, Lugo, and Martinez get declined by one side or the other, so agree that some contract deletions will be needed if for nothing else to make some payroll space of SP. What they have now will not get them into the playoffs without those SP and Snell.
The most feasible route in the trade of Soto at about $30MM (and maybe attach Carpenter for another $5.5MM). Could justify that with the though he is not going to sign an extension and Padres have the offense with Machado, Tatis, Bogaerts, et al but desperately need SP. Clear that money and potentially can resign all three of Wacha, Lugo, and Martinez with a few dollars remaining for other minor upgrades.
On the flip side, Soto is one of the best hitters in MLB and young ... so if they want to push the envelope and pay the big money on an extension (not out of the question) ... 2024 could be shaped as a lower cash year (that is what is going on with Machado and Tatis) and actually create some additional 2024 payroll space. Still more space would be desired ... so maybe pursue deals to clear some other salary. Given the big contacts (and no trade conditions) that is not going to be easy.
Kim may have the best market (but may be the least desirable to trade as a fan favorite) but with Soto lock in to LF and Bogaerts, Cronenworth, and Merrill to fill middle INF ... has to be a consideration given he is a FA after 2024. Should get some traction on Suarez / Barlow given all teams need RP and both are better than average ... Padres rely on one to remain and the return of Wilson plus someone internally to step up. DFA (maybe trade) of Grisham / Nola? Just having a hard time in seeing them able to move Cronenwoth's 7 year contact at age 30 and under performing but I guess possible if bundled with the right added pieces. (how about Kim and Cronenworth to MIA ... need INF and can keep Chisholm in CF ... have a low and getting lower payroll ... in the playoffs with plus pitching so may want to push for 2024 ... have a decent farm system ... Padres go with Merrill-Bogaerts in the middle INF)
Preller is going to have to be flexible ... and make quick assessments of the options ... since even if he has a preferred priority ... the players / agents may not agree and other teams may not see it the same way as they start picking off FA or other trade targets.
Between now and early NOV when FA starts, Preller will have to have a plan and enter serious negotiations with the pending FA / players on options. Hopefully that clears the air on their futures and maybe results in some renegotiated contracts for 2024.
#220 · October 5, 2023, 11:40 am
Snell or Wacha/Lugo/Martinez for 2024?
What does the cost look like?
Not a TOTAL Snell fan( doesn't go deep enough, often enough, gets mentally frazzled too easy when not on) but can't argue a 2 time CY award winner.
Are 3 better than 1? Can we get 70+ starts out of the other 3?
As has been mentioned in the SDUT, maybe time the Pads hire an actual GM to work with Melvin( let AJ oversee drafts and baseball ops), find out the best FIT of players for our 40 man, BEFORE spending money.