Quote from Jeremy Hill on September 29, 2023, 2:58 pm

Zach Eflin 3/40, Tyler Anderson 3/39, Jose Quintana 2/26, Ross Stripling 2/25, Sean Manaea 2/25, Andrew Heaney 2/25.

Just looking at some of the deals guys signed last year to get an idea of what Wacha, Lugo and Martinez might be able to command. 12-13m seemed to be the going rate for guys that teams were hoping would be reliable back end starters. 16m might be a bit of an overpay for Wacha or Martinez, but Martinez can probably do a lot better than 8m on the open market. Lugo should be in for a nice raise.

To me this team needs to bring in a front line starter. Bringing Snell back or getting someone like Yamamoto would be my top priority. After that I think you look for a couple of those short term veteran deals to bridge the gap to the young guys who are moving through the system. In that sense I might put guys like Lugo and Martinez who have demonstrated the ability to pitch out of the bullpen above guys who have only worked as starters. They can start in the rotation and potentially shift to the bullpen if the likes of Snelling, Mazur, Bergert, or Iriarte prove they're ready.

Quote from fenn68 on September 29, 2023, 3:56 pm

Beginning to look as though Yamamoto is going to be priced out of the Padres market given the big time interest in him for some of the big time teams.

Most scouting has him much better (and younger) than Senga (NYM) who push out 29 starts / 2.98 ERA in his first season ... signed a 5 year / $75MM deal. Then his performance probably quelled some of the people who worry about pitchers from Japan making a quick transition to MLB.

Not only scouts ... but top executives / GMs have headed out to Japan to watch him pitch ... including NYY, NYM, BOST, PHIL, CUBS, LAD. No question of intense interest.

Side note is that Yamamoto has the same agent as Senga and Senga has encouraged the METS to sign him and offer to recruit. Could ask Darvish to recruit him but the last time Darvish was involved the player ended up in CHI (a city Darvish loved).

Some guesses on a contract are 5 years / $25MM per year ... allowing him to hit a second FA at age 30. Maybe a longer deal with a player opt out after 5 years.

Going to be a hard sign but if he signed ... one of the Wacha, Lugo, Martinez for about $12-13MM ... then roll the dice on a surprise option at #5 ... that might work but should still require some roster shuffling to stay near the payroll target.

Quote from fenn68 on September 29, 2023, 4:14 pm

Trying to out think Preller is a losing proposition. However, based on his history, Preller seems to put max value on building a team with "stars" and willing to fill around them whatever he can find (did not not that well in 2023).

Siedler seems to be on the same page with that strategy (he is approving those big deals) so would we be surprised if the Padres extended Soto and signed Yamamoto ... then sought to fill out the rest of the roster with low cost veterans / prospects? Maybe trade some contracts off the roster to "balance" the budget?

Could make an argument of a SP of Musgrove, Darvish, Yamamoto would get them to the playoffs (and be strong in the playoffs) with just adequate SP at #4 and #5. Since an offense of Kim-Tatis-Soto-Machado-Bogaerts-Campusano-Cronenworth-Grisham-TBD DH would be compelling and potentially carry a lot of games with just adequate SP out of #4-5.

Looking at the teams battling for the Wild Card in 2023 ... actually would not take that much to overtake the group. Plus Siedler loves consistency ... so long term deals with stars meet that criteria.

If the Padres think if they can tread water though mid-season (worst case scenario) with that group ... maybe they think they get an internal boost from Pauley / Merrill / Marsee for DH/bench ... from Snelling / Iriate / Bergert for the #4-5 SP slot.

Go big or go home?

Quote from Alex Tamayo on September 29, 2023, 10:16 pm

I just saw that Gabe Kapler was let go, does anyone think he could be a possibility if Preller decides to pull the string on Bob? I am under the impression that in his 4 years he made his players perform better than expected, at the end the lack of talent caught up to them this year, but still, they are tougher to beat than on paper

Quote from fenn68 on September 30, 2023, 5:05 am

Besides the clear need for SP … need to make call on closer. Consider in 2023 the Padres had 36 saves / 27 blown saves but Hader had 33 saves / 5 blown saves.

The rest of the staff only had 3 saves and 22 blown saves. Those saves were from Tapia (1 save / 0 blown), Martinez (1 save / 6 blown), and Cosgrove (1 save / 0 blown). Everyone else amassed 0 saves / 16 blown saves.

The presumption is that Suarez, Barlow, maybe Wilson will evolve to closer … is that more hope than conviction? Will / should the Padres position Iriate or Bergert into candidates for closer at some point in 2024? Not suggesting they consider re-signing Hader but they do need a game plan for end of game pitching. Given the incumbents … the plan has to have multiple options to choose from until one emerges as the clear #1.

Quote from Jeremy Hill on September 30, 2023, 9:29 am

Quote from Alex Tamayo on September 29, 2023, 10:16 pm

I just saw that Gabe Kapler was let go, does anyone think he could be a possibility if Preller decides to pull the string on Bob? I am under the impression that in his 4 years he made his players perform better than expected, at the end the lack of talent caught up to them this year, but still, they are tougher to beat than on paper

It would certainly make for an interesting storyline. Rumor has it that Melvin might be the favorite in SF if we let him go. I'm guessing division rivals haven't swapped managers after disappointing seasons too often in league history.

Kapler seems like a guy who knows the rulebook inside and out. He's also a guy that seems to like playing the matchups. Maybe he would push to bring in some platoon types and build a better bench which is something I have wanted to see for years. On the flip side there are reports that he lost the clubhouse. From the outside looking in it seems like he still acts like he's one of the guys and not the boss.

I also remember reading that Preller loves Ryan Flaherty earlier this year. He could be the favorite if Melvin is gone. Things could get interesting in the next few days. Melvin, Preller and Seidler are supposed to meet on Monday to see if the working relationship can be salvaged.

Quote from Randy Manese on September 30, 2023, 9:53 am

Surprisingly, I'm not all that concerned with next year's bullpen/closer situation as I was going into this year.  I had a feeling Crismatt, Garcia and Hill were pitching over their heads and that proved to be the case.  Giving Martinez a long look at starting because (1) he wanted that opportunity or would not have signed and (2) the WBC impact on Darvish and Musgrove's injury, further hurt the bullpen and Tapia and Honeywell deficiencies were soon exposed.  The biggest downer was the injury to Suarez plus the hope that injured pitchers Pomeranz and Morejon would actually contribute this year.

Turning the page to 2024, I'd give a QO to Hader, knowing that he won't accept it to gain a draft choice.  Garcia and Pomeranz, and likely Martinez, are also gone to FA and I don't prefer to offer arbitration to either Hill or Morejon.  So, that leaves me with those candidates you listed (Suarez (R), Barlow (R) and Wilson (R), in that order) or possibly Cosgrove(L) as closer candidates.  It also fills half of the bullpen.  The other half could start with rostered guys Kerr(L), Avila(R), Jacob(R), Espada (R), Reynolds (R), Carlton (R) or Hernandez(R), minor league arms like Iriarte(R), Bergert(R) or Paplham(R), or a ton of available major and minor league FA pitchers to fill out the bullpen roster.  Would like another lefty in the mix but would you really trust Groome, Morejon or Hill to make any kind of significant contribution given their recent history?

The problem is most of the rostered guys are 1 inning types, hence the pivot to someone like Iriarte or Bergert as long men who could also be in the role of an occasional 6th starter.  Of course, Martinez could effectively fill that role but predict he'll be gone.  Nonetheless, I see 6 or possibly 7 of the spots locked up with some depth to shuttle up and back from the minors.  Get rid of the old and injured and bring in hopefully, guys who will recover better from their injuries and be more consistent in their performance.  Pitchers' arms are notoriously fragile so need a raft of candidates to cover all those contingencies.  Sleeper candidate:  Carter Loewen (R).

Quote from fenn68 on September 30, 2023, 10:26 am

Quote from Jeremy Hill on September 30, 2023, 9:29 am

Quote from Alex Tamayo on September 29, 2023, 10:16 pm

I just saw that Gabe Kapler was let go, does anyone think he could be a possibility if Preller decides to pull the string on Bob? I am under the impression that in his 4 years he made his players perform better than expected, at the end the lack of talent caught up to them this year, but still, they are tougher to beat than on paper

It would certainly make for an interesting storyline. Rumor has it that Melvin might be the favorite in SF if we let him go. I'm guessing division rivals haven't swapped managers after disappointing seasons too often in league history.

Kapler seems like a guy who knows the rulebook inside and out. He's also a guy that seems to like playing the matchups. Maybe he would push to bring in some platoon types and build a better bench which is something I have wanted to see for years. On the flip side there are reports that he lost the clubhouse. From the outside looking in it seems like he still acts like he's one of the guys and not the boss.

I also remember reading that Preller loves Ryan Flaherty earlier this year. He could be the favorite if Melvin is gone. Things could get interesting in the next few days. Melvin, Preller and Seidler are supposed to meet on Monday to see if the working relationship can be salvaged.

Not a Kapler fan. Not a ringing endorsement that Zaidi fired him after he worked with him in the LAD front office and was the guy who brought them to SF. At some level they were on the same page of being “stat” driven.

Apparently lost the clubhouse and especially the pitching staff as he kept pulling strings and and pitching decisions that frustrated the pitchers. Hire Kapler and Niebla quits (he is not going to be seconded guessed on how to handle the pitchers).

Fired after two years in Phil … fired with only one playoff season in SF (that was a truly one off season) …

Plus as more an old school fan … would get frustrated with never ending stat based moves that don’t work (and most will not because players are what they are) … then have to listen to constant complaints for the fans on how dumb the moves by Kapler were.

 

Quote from fenn68 on September 30, 2023, 10:35 am

Tucked in the MLBTradeRumors piece on the SF managerial job and Melvin was in interesting potential twist given Melvin is still under contract with SD.

Padres could “trade” Melvin to ST … basically get some type of compensation and then they will release him from his contract. Minor league player? International Bonus Pool money? Ghirardelli chocolates? Take Carpenter?

I had forgotten that Zaidi and Melvin worked together in OAK … so not a match of unknowns.