Quote from sportwarrior on September 29, 2023, 10:24 am

Didn't see this posted, but  Hector Gomez is out there still insisting the Padres are going to make a generous long term offer to Soto and that he's very happy in SD. Take it for whatever it's worth.

Quote from WindsorUK on September 29, 2023, 10:39 am

Do the Pads offer Soto a higher average than MM or FTJ? And how would that sit with the 2 superstars?

 

Quote from fenn68 on September 29, 2023, 10:48 am

Quote from sportwarrior on September 29, 2023, 10:24 am

Didn't see this posted, but  Hector Gomez is out there still insisting the Padres are going to make a generous long term offer to Soto and that he's very happy in SD. Take it for whatever it's worth.

I do think Soto is comfortable in SD but "generous offer" does not translate into a signing ... think Trea Turner, Aaron Judge. One person's "generous" is another person's "low ball".

My over / under for Soto is $500MM/15 years ... $33.3MM AAV. Plus knowing Boras' history ... a number of opt outs at various points and a full no trade.

IF the Padres went that route ... still could remain with the budget target ... but will have to shuffle some other parts it they want to upgrade the pitching. However, timing of a Soto offer (and acceptance) needs to be early ... just waiting around causes a problem in strategizing the other critical moves ...

At least that approach will put 100% focus on SP (2024 and beyond) with an assumption that the current offense is fine (even with Grisham and no clear DH) but coming soon Bush/Marsee to replace Grisham, Merrill to replace Kim, and Pauley / Martorella to take the DH role.

Longer view ... strong SP prospects in Snelling, Lesko, and Iriate ... and maybe Bergert and Mazur could cover any short term (1-2 year) SP coverage for 2024-25. That transition would allow low cost options to cover the increasing cash salaries for Machado and Tatis (they lagged cash payments).

If cash is the key ... good chance Soto would do some back loading to keep the next few years within budget.

 

Quote from fenn68 on September 29, 2023, 10:51 am

Quote from WindsorUK on September 29, 2023, 10:39 am

Do the Pads offer Soto a higher average than MM or FTJ? And how would that sit with the 2 superstars?

 

Yes they would, but don't think a big issue with Tatis (part of his AAV is a product of the buyout of the lower cost control years ... not FA years) but Manny would be ticked (he usually is when he is not the top dog).

Quote from Jeremy Hill on September 29, 2023, 11:07 am

Quote from WindsorUK on September 29, 2023, 5:06 am

Quote from WindsorUK on September 10, 2023, 8:49 am

Soto sits just under 40% of his at bats not putting the ball in play. Now I don't know how that compares to other top hitters but if you're batting in the middle of the lineup, surely you're needed to AT LEAST put the ball in play, to get guys moving, right?

One, I hope Preller is gone in about 4 weeks time. And as many believe that just won't happen, then 2, please DO NOT keep Soto here, especially at over $30+ million.

This team is not a championship contender( more likely to get 90 losses than 90 wins)Moves need to be made. Management needs to admit its mistakes and move on. Sure, Soto could turn his numbers around( and hit above .260....) but it certainly doesn’t appear he'll do it in San Diego.

The time to start the rebuild was at the trade deadline. Now that we've missed that mile post, this off season is our next best chance. Please don't miss it.

 

Interesting article by Acee, on Soto's approach post All Star break:

Soto has walked 15 times in 97 plate appearances this month, which is 25 percent less than his rate for the season to that point (one walk every 6.5 plate appearances versus one every 5.2). He has actually been walking less since the All-Star break (every 6.6 plate appearances versus every 4.8). Additionally, his take rate in the strike zone is down since the break (35 percent versus 40 percent).

Moving him down the lineup( where he should have been from the day we acquired him!) sure looks to have made a difference in his approach to hitting(And whoever had him batting in the 2 hole, should probably be unemployed next week)

I tried to attach a Baseball reference graph( no luck) to show the EXTREME disparity in numbers from batting in the 2 hole compared to the 3 and 4 slots. Totally different guy. He and Machado will need to sit down and discuss which guy is better for the team, in which slot( I still think Soto should hit 4, since Manny had put together top 3 MVP seasons from the 3 hole)

Be interesting to see what transpires over the winter.

Soto's numbers in the 2 hole are misleading. He got off to a brutal start regardless of lineup position. His mechanics and timing were off and he clearly wasn't tracking the ball moving away from him well. I still wonder if rushing back from his late spring injury threw something out of alignment. He started coming out of it and eventually got mostly left in the 3 hole.

Melvin put him back in the 2 hole for a while starting on June 7th. Since then he has hit .289/.419/.443 in 125 PAs out of the 2 hole. He's hit .288/.418/.566 out of the 3 hole on the season. His slugging is the only difference, but that's also somewhat inflated by the tear he's been on for the last month. The real big difference between his season lines is that he got 300 more PAs to get his numbers back up out of the 3 hole than he did out of the 2 hole following the brutal start.

Now for the record I do think he should keep hitting 3rd. He's our only reliable left handed bat and I believe in trying to maintain left/right balance in a lineup. I just don't believe in this narrative that he can't hit 2nd.

Quote from Jeremy Hill on September 29, 2023, 11:29 am

The exact tweet from Hector. He's pretty reliable specifically to Dominican players. I tend to think if they do extend Soto it will follow the Darvish and Bogaerts pattern where they add years to get the AAV down. There are also rumors out there that we're still in on Ohtani, Bellinger, Lee, Yamamoto and a handful of other guys that might come over from Japan. It's why I don't really buy the drastic payroll reduction rumors. I just don't think Seidler is going to make that much of a change to his MO.

https://twitter.com/hgomez27/status/1707482339708690688

Quote from Jeremy Hill on September 29, 2023, 11:30 am

Also for the record that's a different Jeremy. I am not Pimp_Lord619 lol.

Quote from Randy Manese on September 29, 2023, 11:34 am

Concur but there are a lot of IF's in the above scenario with only Wacha locked in at $16M IF the Padres pick up his option for this year and commit to the same amount in 2025, when he will 34.  Wacha, as the youngest of the 3, seems the most statistically predictable with almost back to back identical seasons in 2022 & 2023.  Likely will give you 23-25 starts and have nagging injuries that won't let him reach 150 IP; also, on average almost makes it to the 6th inning.

Lugo is the oldest and this year doubled the IP over 2022.  At 34, and the oldest of the 3, how will this affect next year's performance (he was also out with injuries this year).  Lugo is finishing very strong down the stretch but again borders on average to just less than 6 innings per game.  Further, Lugo has to believe he'll get more than 7.5M in free agency, so it looks you are predicting about something in the 12M or less range for him in the open market.

Nick Martinez is the hardest to figure out and will be 33 next year.  Last year, he was much more dominant as a RP than a starter.  This year, he was less hittable as a starter, but had better numbers is walks allowed and K's per 9 as a RP.  Also, in the 2 years as a SP has averaged less than 5 IP per start.  Padres certainly won't pick up his option at 16M but will he opt in for 8M?

All 3 of these pitchers, plus the expected departure of Snell, put stress on the bullpen with their less than 6 IP per average start.  Darvish and Musgrove, when healthy, usually can get very close to the 7 IP.  My thought is we need at least one other pitcher who can hit that 6+ inning mark and for that reason my strategy would be to pick up the option on Wacha and let the others go if Martinez does not opt in for 8M.

The success of Kodai Senga with the Mets lead me again to Yoshinobu Yamamoto, who just turned 25.  His track record is even better than Senga's in the JPL but there will be great competition for him.  Senga signed for 15M but was already 30 years old.  Yamamoto should get at least 20M, so if the Padres have a chance with him at that number or close to it, I'd go with Yamamoto (who averages over 7 IP per game) and spend my remaining money (approximately that amount for the two older pitchers) for him.

Yamamoto basically takes the place of Snell/Lugo in the starting rotation and we fill the other slot with whoever steps up in Spring Training, remembering Martinez has not really shown that he can be a consistent 5+ IP over the past 2 years.  In my opinion, we are still are looking for another innings eater and if Waldron can sustain his recent success, he might be that guy.  Otherwise, we need to explore other low cost options internally or via FA somewhere in the pitcher universe.  So Yamamoto is my big IF and all of this, of course, is speculation not knowing what trades/FA signings may be on the horizon in the next 90 days or so.  I'd like to see Martinez remain in the bullpen but at his age he probably is looking for one last big payday that will give him security over the next 2-4 years; plus his opting in would probably not allow us enough cap space to go after Yamamoto and other tweaks we need to better the team.  I think both he and Lugo opt out.  A healthy rotation of Darvish, Musgrove, Yamamoto and Wacha looks good on paper but the key word here is "healthy".  Pitchers oftentimes come out of nowhere - maybe we'll get lucky!

Quote from MrPadre19 on September 29, 2023, 12:32 pm

" Pitchers oftentimes come out of nowhere - maybe we'll get lucky!"

 

Speaking of this...have you seen what our old pal Joey Lucchesi is doing with the Mets?

Small sample size but pretty good numbers for him once healthy.