Quote from Jeremy Hill on September 30, 2023, 2:35 pm

Quote from fenn68 on September 30, 2023, 10:26 am

Quote from Jeremy Hill on September 30, 2023, 9:29 am

Quote from Alex Tamayo on September 29, 2023, 10:16 pm

I just saw that Gabe Kapler was let go, does anyone think he could be a possibility if Preller decides to pull the string on Bob? I am under the impression that in his 4 years he made his players perform better than expected, at the end the lack of talent caught up to them this year, but still, they are tougher to beat than on paper

It would certainly make for an interesting storyline. Rumor has it that Melvin might be the favorite in SF if we let him go. I'm guessing division rivals haven't swapped managers after disappointing seasons too often in league history.

Kapler seems like a guy who knows the rulebook inside and out. He's also a guy that seems to like playing the matchups. Maybe he would push to bring in some platoon types and build a better bench which is something I have wanted to see for years. On the flip side there are reports that he lost the clubhouse. From the outside looking in it seems like he still acts like he's one of the guys and not the boss.

I also remember reading that Preller loves Ryan Flaherty earlier this year. He could be the favorite if Melvin is gone. Things could get interesting in the next few days. Melvin, Preller and Seidler are supposed to meet on Monday to see if the working relationship can be salvaged.

Not a Kapler fan. Not a ringing endorsement that Zaidi fired him after he worked with him in the LAD front office and was the guy who brought them to SF. At some level they were on the same page of being “stat” driven.

Apparently lost the clubhouse and especially the pitching staff as he kept pulling strings and and pitching decisions that frustrated the pitchers. Hire Kapler and Niebla quits (he is not going to be seconded guessed on how to handle the pitchers).

Fired after two years in Phil … fired with only one playoff season in SF (that was a truly one off season) …

Plus as more an old school fan … would get frustrated with never ending stat based moves that don’t work (and most will not because players are what they are) … then have to listen to constant complaints for the fans on how dumb the moves by Kapler were.

 

I don't think being fired by the guy who hired him really means anything. Plenty of successful managers have been through the same thing. Zaidi fired him because he wasn't going to fire himself. I don't really love Kapler either, but he's a pretty clear scapegoat in my opinion.

Basically all of their off-season acquisitions were busts. Haniger had only put together 1 healthy season in the previous 4 and shockingly got hurt again. Manaea was coming off a bad year and had another bad year. Conforto has always had pretty heavy splits, wasn't very good in 2021 and missed all of 2022 due to injury, but they still gave him 2/36. Pederson got a qualifying offer no one thought he deserved. Stripling was bad. It really just seems like they made a bunch of desperation plays after they couldn't land Judge and the Correa deal fell apart.

Kapler basically ended up with a lineup full of past their prime veterans, young guys who weren't ready, other teams castoffs and platoon guys without enough platoon partners. He probably did try to force matchup plays at times, but I can't really blame him. He just didn't have the pieces this year. Obviously he made it work in 2021 and teams like the Rays and Dodgers find success with it year after year. You actually have to have the guys in place to take advantage of the matchups though.

I also don't really remember his handling of the pitching staff ever really coming into question before this year. It seems like he was content using a traditional rotation when he had an effective one. Maybe if some of the guys who were crying had pitched better their roles wouldn't have changed. Given what he had to work with I actually think he did a pretty good job keeping them in contention as long as he did.

It does seem clear that he lost at least a portion of the clubhouse though. It's not good when guys are openly questioning decisions in the media. He also might have been too passive in responding as issues arose. With a team of our own that had issues with complacency he's probably not a good fit. I just think he's taking the blame for a lot of things that really aren't his fault just like I think Melvin will be doing if AJ fires him.

Quote from fenn68 on September 30, 2023, 3:44 pm

It does seem as though the same narrative came out of his firing in PHIL ... again lost the clubhouse, the team underachieved, he had trouble with "authority" (read the GM), and relied too much on statistics and not enough on "gut".

I think only 1 playoff season in 6 (that special 2021) but had basically .500 teams in each other season and I guess the management thought he should a delivered more.

From the Padres standpoint, at least the way Preller and the analytical staff seem to run the field operations, probably don't need a manager that will be in conflict with their "suggestions" ... maybe more a guy that can follow direction while keeping the clubhouse focused. The boss is always right so get someone who knows his place in the pecking order.

Has anyone considered Machado as the player - manager? He surely gets along with Preller and Siedler.

Quote from fenn68 on October 1, 2023, 3:19 am

I know this does not make sense to true “stat” guys … but sometimes certain players who are not the greatest provide a catalyst to the team to win just from their personality in the clubhouse … keep the team positive, loose. Missing in 2023 were the likes of Stammen, Manaea, Alfaro who seemed to be active positives for the team mentality.

Maybe the most important was Profar … many will argue about the real impact BUT since his return on SEPT 8 the Padres went 10-5. Put that on top of the 3 previous seasons  when the Padres had 26 more wins than losses … two playoff runs.

Cause and effect? Certainly makes me want to bring back Profar despite his “stats” not being all that great. But as the #1 super utility bench piece with is clubhouse impact … the whole is bigger than the sum of the parts for value to the club.

Plus I actually like to watch him and is daily upbeat positive personality and a smile on his face … same goes for Kim which is a reason to keep him.

Quote from fenn68 on October 1, 2023, 7:05 am

Maybe some optimism for 2024 should come from the offense (which likely is returning basically in tact) and the improvement in the 2nd half over the 1st half. Padres were 4 games under in the 1st half and 5 games over in the 2nd half … pretty good positive 9 game swing and without Musgrove / Darvish for a major part.

Consider on a wRC+ basis these 1st half vs 2nd half results:

C … 89 v 143 (Sanchez in 1st / Campusano in 2nd)

1B.. 91 v 95 (Cronenworth returns and should not be worse)

2B.. 114 v 107 (Kim steady)

SS .. 107 v 136 (Bogaerts settles in as the new guy and goes back to his historical level)

3B .. 109 v 120 (Machado even with injuries rebound a bit but not yet to historical level)

LF … 149 v 161 (Soto also settles in after only 2 months in 2022)

CF … 97 v 78 (Grisham … OK a problem here)

RF … 138 v 88 (Tatis appears to have run out of gas after missing 2022 so after a reset over the winter should rebound to expectations)

DH … ??????????

Figure Sullivan … Batten … Carpenter … Azocar are inside candidates for the bench with one slot TBD.

So, looking at the improved settled Soto / Bogaerts, the likely rebound of a tired Tatis, and a rebound of a healthy Machado … don’t really have to do much of anything (clearly not major thing) to have a much more impactful offense.

Sign Profar then just focus on pitching.

Quote from WindsorUK on October 1, 2023, 7:55 am

Yeah, I can't imagine not re-signing Profar. Say what you will but from the moment he turned up, there was no more talk of quitting, and there hasn't been much losing.

Jurickson can  rotate through LF, 1B, and even SS or 2B next year. Just need to have him around.

Liking Batten more and more. Guy looks like he might be our IF bench guy next year( let Rosario get another at AAA).

Quote from WindsorUK on October 1, 2023, 7:57 am

I'd also like for management to come out in the next few days and say that Jake Cronenworth is our 2B next year( he cannot be at 1B again!)

Quote from fenn68 on October 1, 2023, 8:06 am

On Monday most of us (and the media) will be focused on “THE MEETING” as it impacts Melvin’s future but behind the scenes should be a lot more.

1. Getting everyone on the same page as to the budgeted payroll for 2024

2. Setting priorities for retooling the roster

3. Determining which players they want back and at what cost range, priority … conversely which players they are willing to let go

4. Discussion on the coaching staff … any let go … any quitting

Set that plan now and that give Preller a month before FA hits to, if wanted, to enter negotiations on extensions (ie Soto, Kim, maybe Barlow), re-working contracts for Wacha, Lugo, or Martinez (all not likely to be retain via options).

Once November hits and FA begins … having sorted through that stuff will give Preller a clearer … more directed … target for winter moves either FA or trades.

Quote from fenn68 on October 1, 2023, 8:22 am

Quote from WindsorUK on October 1, 2023, 7:57 am

I'd also like for management to come out in the next few days and say that Jake Cronenworth is our 2B next year( he cannot be at 1B again!)

Makes sense but not going to happen unless they trade Kim (and I don’t want that) or move him to CF (don’t see that happening). Bogaerts in just not moving off SS.

I guess the other issue is they don’t have a prototypical 1B ready in house … and given the need to spend on pitching not likely they spend on a 1B AND a DH. Not the best look but think the offense overall can cover Cronenworth at 1B.

———————

Although would not think Kim to CF is going to happen … just a pinch of appeal trying to replicate the move of Tatis to RF. Kim is athletic enough / fast enough with the work ethic to make that a successful transition. Hate to lose his INF defense but Cronenworth was a plus defensive 2B. Kim offense is vastly superior to Grisham … upgrades in CF are just hard to come by … backfilling Grisham with a 1B is a much easier (low cost) possibility. (Might need / want to extend Kim if going that route).

Low low probability of happening but on paper could result in a better offense.

Quote from Notmyopic on October 1, 2023, 6:27 pm

Quote from fenn68 on October 1, 2023, 8:22 am

Quote from WindsorUK on October 1, 2023, 7:57 am

I'd also like for management to come out in the next few days and say that Jake Cronenworth is our 2B next year( he cannot be at 1B again!)

Makes sense but not going to happen unless they trade Kim (and I don’t want that) or move him to CF (don’t see that happening). Bogaerts in just not moving off SS.

I guess the other issue is they don’t have a prototypical 1B ready in house … and given the need to spend on pitching not likely they spend on a 1B AND a DH. Not the best look but think the offense overall can cover Cronenworth at 1B.

———————

Although would not think Kim to CF is going to happen … just a pinch of appeal trying to replicate the move of Tatis to RF. Kim is athletic enough / fast enough with the work ethic to make that a successful transition. Hate to lose his INF defense but Cronenworth was a plus defensive 2B. Kim offense is vastly superior to Grisham … upgrades in CF are just hard to come by … backfilling Grisham with a 1B is a much easier (low cost) possibility. (Might need / want to extend Kim if going that route).

Low low probability of happening but on paper could result in a better offense.

I wonder how much it would cost to keep Cooper to help fill the 1B DH hole.