Quote from TucsonClip on March 13, 2024, 7:23 pm

Quote from fenn68 on March 13, 2024, 7:07 pm

First reaction is that Cease would report to Peoria … get oriented and some work then join the roster when the return to SD.

Not sure on the logistics … but would it be possible to have gotten Cease to AZ to make tonight’s flight to Korea (or go to Korea via an alternative route)? Getting connected with Niebla, Shildt, and the team quickly would be good all around.

He has been working so could maybe even get into one of the exhibition games … but just working on the side with Niebla has a lot of value.

https://twitter.com/BNightengale/status/1768071871910846516?t=y5qiYAOmSjmoeY8m9qqVfQ&s=19

Quote from FW Pad on March 13, 2024, 7:38 pm

Liking the trade more and more. Got a solid #3 who’s averaged 170+ innings the last 3 years. And as others mentioned, at 25% of market value. A perfect 2 year ‘bridge’ to Snelling and Lesko.

The sheer # of pieces given up is what seems to bother us. But we do over-value ‘our’ players. Will mis Wilson, simply because of MLB experience. But others stepped up this spring. Iriarte, could be a gem. But we thought the same of Luis Patino. Hey, we got him back. It’s all good.

fenn brought up a blast from the past, Dinelson Lamet.  OMG, I thought that dude was gonna be lights out multi time all star. You just never know.

All in all, the present rotation looks a lot more competitive than it did yesterday.

Sorry to ramble. But please stop with bringing Pham back. No thanks.

Quote from sportwarrior on March 13, 2024, 7:44 pm

I'm feeling good about it, as well. Trades like this are gonna hurt no matter what, but I feel like this coulda been a whole lot worse. 2 years of a guy who could be an absolute stud is not so bad.

Also, for what it's worth, Cease has been lights out this spring. 8.1 ip, 6 hits, 2 bb, 14 k.

Quote from fenn68 on March 14, 2024, 4:48 am

Been reading some national thoughts on all the players in this trade … with a lot of focus on their downside issues.

First on Cease … yes, major upside to a top of the rotation arm. His poor 2023 was, in part, a product of an unusually high BAA, one of the worst defense teams behind him, and a hitter favorable ballpark. However, he also had a small drop in velocity, swing and miss results … are those factors the sign of diminishing production. Also, significant concern about his control. One sort of describe him as a RH Blake Snell (maybe pitching deeper into games). Bottom line they liked the move by the Padres maybe getting the high upside but if not should get a very productive #3 SP.

Now the Padres sent:

Thorpe … love his change-up and control but consensus is that if he continues to development he is more of a #3 ceiling / lower rotation SP. That is good but not elite.

Iriate … love his raw stuff but question his command and the development of a 3rd pitch. Maybe develops but as likely he ends up a RP.

Zavala … more focus on his flaws … a lot of swing and miss an not likely to remain in CF makes his future very high risk.

Wilson … useful RP but little more.

Time will tell but pretty decent chance Padres will end up with more ML value out of Cease than the prospects … especially if you believe in Snelling and Lesko having higher value than Thorpe and Iriate.

Quote from fenn68 on March 14, 2024, 5:03 am

Have yet to see the 31 traveling to Korea (was supposed to be announced after yesterday’s game).

Looking as though Wade, Pauley, and Merrill are being added with Azocar and Rosario also making the team.

RP is still a question. Assuming the SP sets as Cease, Musgrove, Darvish, King, and Brito and the core RP are Suarez, Matsui (L), De Los Santos, Peralta (L), Go, Cosgrove (L) that leaves only two open slots (one should be a long man / 6th SP).

Out of options: Avila, Patino, and Kolek (rule 5)

with options: Vasquez, Waldron,  Morejon (L), Espada,

Padres are now at 36 on the 40 man … so no issue with adding Pauley, Merrill, and Wade even if they kept the three out of option guys (they will not). So, still room for a late (or mid-season) add without disrupting the roster. If nothing else, if needed, room for a future Marsee, Snelling, Mazur, or Bergert.

Quote from 84padres on March 14, 2024, 5:50 am

OK AJ , time to work your magic and reload the farm system .

Quote from fenn68 on March 14, 2024, 6:43 am

Quote from 84padres on March 14, 2024, 5:50 am

OK AJ , time to work your magic and reload the farm system .

Preller is in a good position to further enhance the farm system … probably don’t need much ML ready for the next two years and what is left after the trade still is better than most systems with Salas, Snelling, Lesko, De Vries all likely Top 100 types and Head, Mazur with a lot of upside. That core should be “developing” over the next two seasons.

Given Preller has hit a home run with lower draft picks with the likes of Pauley, Marsee, Martorella … maybe they already have a few strong pieces that we have yet to see in full season ball … eg Gonzalez (C) or Dickerson (SP) or ?. Cruz who was just signed internationally.

Two cycles of drafts and international signings with the draft picks elevated from the past penalties due to CBT and the full international money restored … gives Preller a great chance to take what is already a strong remaining farm to the next level.

Quote from Randy Manese on March 14, 2024, 7:07 am

Acquisition of Cease puts the Padres bullpen in even better shape despite the loss of Wilson since they now can fill one of the slots with Waldron as the long man/6th starter.  Because he throws the knuckleball, he can go multiple innings and even go back to back, if needed; he's definitely outperformed both Avila and Vasquez for one of the two open slots in the pen.  I believe they want to see more of Vasquez as a SP and may put him down in San Antonio in the spot Thorpe would have occupied vice El Paso for further development; Avila may have come to the end of his Padres' career if not released and re-signed.

Morejon didn't look all that great yesterday and while Estrada has had a great spring he is more of a 1 inning pitcher so I see both he and Morejon being optioned out, hopping the plane back and forth from El Paso to San Diego when necessary.  Otto will go on the injured list and don't forget Jacob and Reynolds (both mainly 1 inning types), who also had very good springs and could also accumulate many flight miles between the majors and AAA.

That leaves the last spot to either Patino or Kolek.  Patino had a late start to ST and has showed the rust; he did throw some very nasty pitches yesterday, however, and was a victim of some poor defense.   Kolek has been frustratingly inconsistent with almost as many walks as K's but would have to be offered back to Seattle.   To me, it's really a toss-up and Niebla will make the call on who still has potential - Patino is still only 24 and can go multiple innings; Kolek is 27 and more of a 1 inning kind of guy but was a SP a couple of years ago.  I think I'm talking myself into keeping Patino over Kolek given the other options available for short relievers in the system.

Quote from Jeremy Hill on March 14, 2024, 7:33 am

Quote from fenn68 on March 14, 2024, 5:03 am

Have yet to see the 31 traveling to Korea (was supposed to be announced after yesterday’s game).

Looking as though Wade, Pauley, and Merrill are being added with Azocar and Rosario also making the team.

RP is still a question. Assuming the SP sets as Cease, Musgrove, Darvish, King, and Brito and the core RP are Suarez, Matsui (L), De Los Santos, Peralta (L), Go, Cosgrove (L) that leaves only two open slots (one should be a long man / 6th SP).

Out of options: Avila, Patino, and Kolek (rule 5)

with options: Vasquez, Waldron,  Morejon (L), Espada,

Padres are now at 36 on the 40 man … so no issue with adding Pauley, Merrill, and Wade even if they kept the three out of option guys (they will not). So, still room for a late (or mid-season) add without disrupting the roster. If nothing else, if needed, room for a future Marsee, Snelling, Mazur, or Bergert.

Estrada was confirmed as being on the plane. I think he gets one spot and Kolek gets the other. I'm guessing at least 3 more arms will be on the taxi squad which could save the likes of Patino and Avila for the time being. I'm not real worried about losing either of them when the time comes. I'm not sure either of them would get claimed. Also with it only being a 2 game series and there being a week until the next set of games that count I really don't think we need to worry about having a long man initially. It sounds like King might effectively piggyback in one of the games too. Cease now could potentially do the same. Shildt said it would essentially be a 10 or 11 man bullpen.