Quote from BoosterSD on March 13, 2024, 6:03 pm

I think this is a fair trade and one that really boosts our chances in 2024 and 2025. Plus when Hosmers money comes off the books, nothing says we don't sign him to an extension if continues to perform.

And a move to Petco shouldn't hurt.

Quote from TucsonClip on March 13, 2024, 6:08 pm

On Zavala, we have RF locked down. If Kim re-signs, that leaves Merrill in the OF. If Kim leaves, Marsee maybe takes over in CF next year until Head is ready, and Merrill to SS.

We still have a hole in LF, but we can drop a power bat there, from FA, and not have it be a big issue due to our overall defense.

Quote from fenn68 on March 13, 2024, 6:14 pm

Quote from Notmyopic on March 13, 2024, 5:56 pm

I think a lot of us are having a case of overvaluing our prospects.  We gave up good prospects but all with serious questions.

Yeh, but a good chance Iriate is the next Dinelson Lamet or Simon Castro and Zavala is the next Robert Hassell … all faded from being elite ML players.

Wilson is a RP and they come and go regularly.

Thorpe ??? But the Padres retained the higher rated Snelling and Lesko so that is a positive for the future.

A good trade if Cease delivers as an upper rotation arm that posts up every time for the next two seasons … not so much if he tanks (and a prospect sent turns out elite).

 

Quote from MrPadre19 on March 13, 2024, 6:23 pm

While it seems like a lot we got the best Starter “available” via trade and kept Salas,Merrill,Snelling and Lesko.

Cease will cost us about 25% of what his going rate is.

 

 

Quote from MrPadre19 on March 13, 2024, 6:25 pm

Quote from fenn68 on March 13, 2024, 6:14 pm

Quote from Notmyopic on March 13, 2024, 5:56 pm

I think a lot of us are having a case of overvaluing our prospects.  We gave up good prospects but all with serious questions.

Yeh, but a good chance Iriate is the next Dinelson Lamet or Simon Castro and Zavala is the next Robert Hassell … all faded from being elite ML players.

Wilson is a RP and they come and go regularly.

Thorpe ??? But the Padres retained the higher rated Snelling and Lesko so that is a positive for the future.

A good trade if Cease delivers as an upper rotation arm that posts up every time for the next two seasons … not so much if he tanks (and a prospect sent turns out elite).

 

While your point remains I’m not yet ready to give up on Bobby Barrels.

 

Quote from fenn68 on March 13, 2024, 6:29 pm

Quote from BoosterSD on March 13, 2024, 6:03 pm

I think this is a fair trade and one that really boosts our chances in 2024 and 2025. Plus when Hosmers money comes off the books, nothing says we don't sign him to an extension if continues to perform.

And a move to Petco shouldn't hurt.

Step one is seeing what Kim wants as an extension … I have this scenario that he gets his extension while in Korea (just wishful thinking but maybe). Extension starts next year so the new AAV does not kick in until then and should still fit under the CBT depending on the ARB decisions for Cease and King.

However, the Padres could maybe be OK with going over in 2025 by a little if they re-set the penalties by being under in 2024 then after Hosmer comes off and King / Cease are FA there could be a lot of space under the 2026 CBT.

I don’t expect either pitcher to be extended … both are younger and will demand long term / big money deals … don’t like big money long term deals for pitchers. Hopefully at that point we are content with Snelling, Lesko, Mazur, … maybe Brito holding the fort … plus rooting for a Sasaki signing and stardom at league minimum.

Two years … a lot can change … but if the pitching prospects develop … money for maybe a major extension for Merrill (if he is as hyped) or the add of a quality LF. A lot of options.

For now just content with Cease getting two CY Young and two World Series pennants.

Quote from Randy Manese on March 13, 2024, 6:40 pm

SP's like Cease have been getting 20-30M per year when they hit free agency; we'll pay him 8M in 2024 and somewhere around 10M in 2025 if we don't trade him before then.  If all goes well, we will likely get some very good prospects or seasoned players for him if we do trade him before he hits free agency - possibly as good as or better than what we traded away.

I follow our minor leaguers very closely, watching dozens and dozens of televised games.  Prospects rise and fall as they move up the system and while I can dream on the potential of Thorpe, Iriarte and Zavala all have "If's" attached to their future progression.  Wilson had a good run as a RP in higher leverage situations, but he was on the IL for a total of 52 days last year and seemed to regress this spring; we have lots of RH arms that could fill his role.  Would have preferred to give up less for Cease but we were in competition with the Rangers and Yankees, as a minimum, for him.  While I'm sad not being able to see our prospects develop, I'm happy we didn't give up Snelling or Lesko; Mazur could turn out to be just as good as Thorpe and Iriarte may not find the consistency to be a SP.  I'll probably miss Sammy Zavala more than the pitchers, but he has to change his approach at the plate and he had Merrill ahead of him and Head behind him with Marsee also in the competition.  Still a lot of solid prospects in the system!

Quote from Jeremy Hill on March 13, 2024, 7:05 pm

Wilson was a solid, but unspectacular reliever. His inclusion probably means we can keep Kolek and carry Estrada. They've both been lights out this spring. Zavala is probably still 2 or 3 years away and his star seems to be dimming some. Iriarte hurts the most to me. He's got nasty stuff. There's some thought that he ultimately ends up a reliever though. His value will be determined by his ability to stick in the rotation. Thorpe looks like a high floor low ceiling prospect. I think he'll be a solid backend starter. All in all I'm ok with what we gave up. I said it at the start of the off-season, on a team with this much invested in older players with no trade clauses they needed to stay at least semi aggressive on the trade market.

Quote from fenn68 on March 13, 2024, 7:07 pm

First reaction is that Cease would report to Peoria … get oriented and some work then join the roster when the return to SD.

Not sure on the logistics … but would it be possible to have gotten Cease to AZ to make tonight’s flight to Korea (or go to Korea via an alternative route)? Getting connected with Niebla, Shildt, and the team quickly would be good all around.

He has been working so could maybe even get into one of the exhibition games … but just working on the side with Niebla has a lot of value.