Quote from Jeremy Hill on January 31, 2024, 10:21 am

I think there's something to be said for building a strong bullpen to support the young and/or inexperienced starters we may have to rely on this year. It also seems like a solid value play. Aroldis Chapman got 10.5m for 1 year. Peralta was arguably as good or better than him each of the last 3 years. In a market where a lot of guys have gotten bigger than expected paydays AJ seems like he's been looking for potential value plays.

I've seen reports linking us to Lorenzen, Syndergaard, and Lauer. That would indicate we're still trying to add a starter, but investing heavily in the bullpen gives us better coverage if we're unable to.

The signing is also a good reminder that things can happen quickly and there is probably a lot going on that we don't hear about. I had not seen anything linking us to Peralta. AJ has made some significant late moves in the past. I expect he still has a few moves to make this off-season.

Quote from Randy Manese on January 31, 2024, 10:25 am

Gives Preller more flexibility to make a deal with some of the more experienced arms in the bullpen.  If nothing else, give more lefty options in high leverage situations so Cosgrove/Matsui won't be overworked and allows Cosgrove to be optioned out if having a difficult start to the season.

A lot of rumors that a Cardinals-Padres deal is brewing with a Padres RP going to St. Louis for a Cardinal OF.  Some say Alec Burleson (more a LF/1b) others say Dylan Carlson (can play all OF spots).  Either would fit, but I'm leaning toward Burleson because of his slightly better barrel and hard hit%.

Quote from sportwarrior on January 31, 2024, 10:27 am

Quote from Randy Manese on January 31, 2024, 10:25 am

Gives Preller more flexibility to make a deal with some of the more experienced arms in the bullpen.  If nothing else, give more lefty options in high leverage situations so Cosgrove/Matsui won't be overworked and allows Cosgrove to be optioned out if having a difficult start to the season.

A lot of rumors that a Cardinals-Padres deal is brewing with a Padres RP going to St. Louis for a Cardinal OF.  Some say Alec Burleson (more a LF/1b) others say Dylan Carlson (can play all OF spots).  Either would fit, but I'm leaning toward Burleson because of his slightly better barrel and hard hit%.

Any rumors we can read? Or are they just kind of in the ether?

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Found some Fansided stuff and something from Fox Sports, but all of it is conjecture ranging from "Burleson for Vazquez/Brito" to "Burleson for Musgrove/Darvish/Snelling (lol)"

Quote from fenn68 on January 31, 2024, 10:40 am

Quote from Randy Manese on January 31, 2024, 10:25 am

Gives Preller more flexibility to make a deal with some of the more experienced arms in the bullpen.  If nothing else, give more lefty options in high leverage situations so Cosgrove/Matsui won't be overworked and allows Cosgrove to be optioned out if having a difficult start to the season.

A lot of rumors that a Cardinals-Padres deal is brewing with a Padres RP going to St. Louis for a Cardinal OF.  Some say Alec Burleson (more a LF/1b) others say Dylan Carlson (can play all OF spots).  Either would fit, but I'm leaning toward Burleson because of his slightly better barrel and hard hit%.

The tension may be that Burleson is projected as the better hitter but in not good LF or 1B defensively while Carlson (more expensive / less control) is the better defensive option who can play CF.

I would lean toward Carlson just because he fills a bigger need now … CF. Then if they believe in Marsee, Pauley, Merrill, and Martorella for the future … all LHH hitters … what would be the longer value of Burleson?

Other than my speculation that a SD-STL deal for their excess in the OF … have not heard any national rumors along that line … but as we saw with Peralta … no rumors does not mean to action.

Quote from fenn68 on January 31, 2024, 10:51 am

The $4.1MM AAV seems pretty good value in this market for his production.

I wonder if Preller (and the agent) creatively used the 4 years with opt out after every season to lower the AAV while paying him a more competitive 2024 salary? Maybe $7MM in 2024 and $3MM in each of the following years? Padres probably OK with the opt out to get him for 2024. Peralta gets some insurance if injured while getting the option for anther FA (for bigger money) after 2024.

We will see.

Quote from fenn68 on January 31, 2024, 12:01 pm

Until the follow-up moves by Preller this may be the straw dog for the pen:

9th: Suarez; Matsui (L)

8th: De Los Santos; Peralta (L)

7th: Wilson; Cosgrove (L)

6th: Go

Long / spot starter: TBD and a LOT of contenders.

I will assume the #4 / #5 SP are Vasquez (2.87 ERA in 2023 in 38 ML innings) and Avila (3.22 ERA in 2023 in 50 ML innings). Have to assume that both could end up in the pen and Brito or Waldron could start … not expecting a prospect to break in.

So, Long relief / spot starter candidates:

Brito (4.28 ERA in 2023 in 96 ML innings) or

Waldren (4.25 ERA in 2023 in 41 ML innings)

bottom line is the 3 of these 4 should make the 26 man roster … 4th is optioned (unless it is Avila who has no minor league options).

Follow further … Kolek, Patino, and Groome cannot be optioned so will be DFA at the end of ST (giving 3 more roster slots for non-roster adds). The remaining 40 man pitchers have minor league options.

I would guess given that array of bottom rotation / mid-inning RP options … Preller could easily consider moving one or more of them to get a more need position player fill.

 

Quote from fenn68 on February 1, 2024, 6:54 am

February 1 … clock is ticking for filling out the roster as FA players start signing somewhere at a more accelerated pace.

With a given that the Padres will not cross the CBT threshold (calculated at the end of the season) … how much might they spend in the next few weeks? The payroll space to stay under the $237MM CBT per Roster Resource ($21.6MM) or Cot’s ($22.8MM) … with each leave a cushion (my est. $5MM) to cover the inevitable non-roster adds mid-season to cover IL stints and trade deadline moves … leaving about $17MM us deploy this spring (if they even want to spend that on marginal remaining players).

With, in my view, the need to add three legitimate ML hitters (at least two OF) has to be the priority (not necessarily average or above for all …just sufficient to eliminate a black hole). That allows the prospects to further develop in the minors for  at last half a season and point to call-up to cover injuries (they will happen) or one of the adds failing (can rule that out given the level of players that can be added at this point).

$17MM for FA or trade adds is a challenge.

Quote from fenn68 on February 1, 2024, 7:39 am

Listened to two different sports talk shows … BOTH indicated that Tommy Pham was interested in returning to the Padres (not speculating on a possibility but more reporting the interest) … not saying that the Padres are really in discussion with Pham but we recall that Preller and Pham had a good relationship.

Pretty sure if that came down … would get a split reaction from the fans. At 35-36 probably would be a 1 year deal in the $8-10MM range given his good 2023.

I really don’t like to watch Pham but do appreciate his attitude and his production (except for the year in SD) … so given the alternatives … might the best option for LF.

Then add Profar … probably under $5MM for super utility (and a positive clubhouse boost) … and might be able to get away with either a lower cost CF via FA or trade … or gamble with Marsee.

Can they live with an OF/DH of Pham/Profar - Marsee/Azocar - Tatis to fill out the line-up behind the core 6? Merrill, Pauley, and Martorella sit in the minors for call-ups as needed. If they deal for a CF (Carlson) … then Marsee is also in the minors for a call-up to support CF.

Not an out of the question plan.

Quote from fenn68 on February 1, 2024, 2:27 pm

I will toss in another potential issue for Preller’s strategy in filling out the 2024 roster. IF the Padres want to extend Kim (new contract in 2025) … they need to minimize any financial commitments for 2025 from the new 2024 adds. I could be that some of the current add targets beyond just a high salary may be holding for a 2 year deal … that could be a stumbling block with the remaining “marginal” FA.

From a numbers standpoint … CBT goes up $5MM but King, De Los Santos, Morejon, Campusano, and Wilson will get increases via arbitration … King if produces he is in his last ARB and may eat up that entire increase himself. Kim and Higashioka are the only pending FA and Higashioka is only a $2.5MM guy.

So if Kim with a current AAV of $7MM is extend at $18MM (Lee’s contract with SF) that would eat up $11MM of what is the best guess of $17MM available this year. So for 2025 only $6MM for any other add. That would put a lot of faith in Merrill (LF), Marsee (CF), Pauley (DH) but IF the Padres really value Kim (probably as the SS going forward) might be a good plan. (Note: Merrill may be an elite hitter / athlete but maybe not the range to play ML SS) and Bogaert has given some indication that he may be willing to move off SS).

Maybe? Padres don’t have an elite defensive SS who can hit coming in the system and Kim is still young. Just another potential strategy to build a competitive roster for years