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OFFSEASON 2023-24
#1571 · January 30, 2024, 7:00 am
Justin Turner signs with TOR … $13MM plus $1.5MM in incentives/roster bonus … target as their DH.
Wonder if this takes them out of the Bellinger race … totally different players but did TOR use the money for Turner in a pivot if Boras was holding out too long / high on Bellinger?
Given the money … Padres would not be in on either BUT if this move ends up with Bellinger back with the Cubs … does that free up someone off the Cubs roster that could trickle down to the Padres? Not sure who is actually in on Belllinger at Boras’ $30MM price point and long term. Given Boras … he takes clients well into ST/season if needed..
ST in nearing and beginning to see teams / players starting to break and make practical decisions.
#1572 · January 30, 2024, 7:24 am
I'd love to have Morel.....or even Caissie.
One reason this offseason has been so horrible for Padre fans is because of the expectations they've given us over the last 4-5 off seasons.
It was "San Diego did this"...."The Padres did that"....now it's, let players go and sign AAAA guys(mostly).
We all knew we couldn't "win the offseason" every year....but maybe all this inaction will lead to more winning during the season?
Who knows
#1573 · January 30, 2024, 9:10 am
Different philosophies on how to build a winning team ... regular season and then progress to the World Series through the playoffs.
Fans what the best at every position ... that never happens in reality given money constrains for every team (maybe less so for the LAD/NYM but still there are limits).
One course is avoid the super stars at big money (at least not multiple stars) and build a balanced roster of average to above average players who can cover each other in slumps and deliver a strong 162 game season and wins (but some question if that line-up can deliver in the crunch of a playoff series). TB model that wins during the season and does not win in the playoffs.
Seems as the Padres over the past couple of seasons have opted for the alternative approach ... go big on the "stars" then backfill if you will with low cost average to slightly below average roster support. The concept is that the "stars" with lesser backfill can get them to the playoffs but then in the limited series within the playoffs will yield a better result against top completion.
Now IF you get it right on the "stars" part of the plan ... that does make sense. Did the Padres get it right with Tatis, Machado, Bogaerts, Musgrove, and Darvish? Also consider 2023 with Soto, Snell, and Hader? To a lesser extend Suarez and Cronenworth? Did they under estimate the market and the cost to get average / slightly below average support players?
Given the realities of the budget ... the locked in "stars" for big money / long term ... the high cost FA market, Padres still may challenge (If the "stars" produce) but almost have to gamble on some long shot FA (low cost / short term) coupled with maybe some overly aggressive promotion of prospects ... not only in 2024 but in 2025.
Just guessing it is the FA market going out to its mind with high contracts that has blown up the Padres strategy. Pretty sure they understood the payroll plan when they made the long term big money commitments to the "stars" and did not have an aggressive internal prospect plan (or even saw the 2023 development in those prospects). Since the FA market for "average" players is not likely to get cheaper in the future ... Padres are almost compelled to rely on the internal prospects to create that roster behind the "stars" and effectively stay out of the FA market except the vey low end for the next few years.
#1574 · January 30, 2024, 9:35 am
AJ is probably surprised that the guys he thought he could get are getting double what he expected.
Plan A---trade for bats/SP's....traded Soto for arms may be "lying in wait" on trades for OF bats.
Plan B--sign lower tier OF bats in Free Agency.....guys are getting much more than AJ anticipated.
Plan C--go into Spring Training with the OF bats we have and hope for it to work itself out.
#1575 · January 30, 2024, 9:54 am
Quote from MrPadre19 on January 30, 2024, 9:35 amAJ is probably surprised that the guys he thought he could get are getting double what he expected.
Plan A---trade for bats/SP's....traded Soto for arms may be "lying in wait" on trades for OF bats.
Plan B--sign lower tier OF bats in Free Agency.....guys are getting much more than AJ anticipated.
Plan C--go into Spring Training with the OF bats we have and hope for it to work itself out.
All of the above in some combo depending on the cooperation of other teams, player interest, plus prospect development.
#1576 · January 30, 2024, 10:51 am
I guess we should start including the non-roster invitees in the OF discussion.
I see a need for 5 OF … one being Tatis and the other 4 in flux (although Azocar has an inside track). Given it is unlikely the Padres discover an “everyday” OF (baring a trade) going with 5 OF will give the Padres the mix and match approach to cover defects in each of the non-Tatis OF.
1. Mercado … RHH CF who had a great debut with Cleveland in 2019 then faded into the shadows … but does play CF so there is that
2. Mitchell … LHH RF who was a 2nd round pick and good MiL stats but never converted all that to ML time / success. Became a minor league FA after the Pirates dropped him from the roster . LHH so there is that.
3. Johnson … switch-hitting CF … older who never really hit … but a CF so here is that.
4. Ornelas … LHH LF … maybe a surprise candidate after a good season in AA/AAA (not great but good) … not claimed as a Rule 5 so don’t get too excited … but consider the alternative.
Since unlikely that Merrill, Marsee, Pauley all will take ML slots (maybe none until mid-season) … one our more of the non-roster guys have a legit chance (remember Dahl made it in 2023).
In this void of movement …. Something to think about.
#1577 · January 31, 2024, 8:52 am
Free-agent left-handed reliever Wandy Peralta in agreement with Padres on four-year, $16.5M contract with three opt-outs, sources tells me and @dennistlin. Deal is pending a physical.
— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) January 31, 2024
#1578 · January 31, 2024, 8:56 am
Quote from Jeremy Hill on January 31, 2024, 8:52 amhttps://twitter.com/Ken_Rosenthal/status/1752735169671528492
Uh... what? We need 2-3 OF, a DH, and 1-2 SP and THIS is how we deploy 25-30% of our remaining budget?
Help me here, fellas. I'm struggling with my faith.
#1579 · January 31, 2024, 9:15 am
On paper this feels like a move designed to enable the full transition of Vazquez AND Brito to the rotation, but I don't feel like it's close to enough IP security. We need more bullets in our rotation, and this doesn't give us that.
I will say the dude has had 3 straight nice years, so there's that. But also I literally had to look him up.
#1580 · January 31, 2024, 9:35 am
Gotta assume there's a trade for Suarez brewing, to free up money to bring in everyday players?
Can't think of any other reason to bring in another relief arm?
Also, as he's left handed, maybe Morejon being packaged with Suarez?