Quote from fenn68 on January 10, 2024, 4:04 am

I have a view that fixing CF is a priority … and see no options that excite me. This will be a hard call by Preller in selecting a path among a list of unappealing options.

Want plus defense and the ability to hit RHP (even if a RHH) … and some sense they can at last platoon with Azocar … none of the FA options have been full season options in recent years. Plus in 2023 some of the options have very limited track records in CF.

Given the rumor that Preller was “interested” in Taylor … might suggest he does not have the move of Tatis to CF as a given and he may not be ready to rely on Marsee (bat not ready and/or not really a ML defensive CF). So looking to FA (or a trade) and may not be finding a trade for a reliable veteran CF possible … none on the market, contract, return demand. So FA.

Taylor is an option but in my mind not a good one. Only played about 1/2 of a season as a CF last year …  yes one of the better defensive options (+3.5 dWAR in CF) and a 97 wRC+ BUT a very low wRC+ (75) vs RHP (a Padre need). Big strikeout guy and low OBP … last season did show the power in MINN. Estimates have him on a 2 year deal at something above $8MM AAV. He might not get that (at last not the 2 years) given the limited buyers after Bader and Kiermaier having been signed.

Azocar is the incumbent … but actually played very little in CF last year (but did have a +0.5 dWAR and in a very small sample size hit over 100 wRC+ … so can’t (shouldn’t) rely on him more than a platoon option.

Jankowski? LHH with a +1.4 dWAR as a CF (so still positive) but as with Azocar very limited work in CF last season. Did have a 98 wRC+ vs LHP … good BA and OBP with no power … still can steal a base. Have to worry about him, at his age, holding up over a full season.

Hicks? His defense is not good with a -3.0 dWAR in CF. A switch hitter who hit RHP at a 98 wRC+ clip. Again very limited work in 2023.

Duvall? His defense is not good with a -3.5 dWAR in CF. RHH but did hit RHP at a 124 clip last year in BOST. Might be a bit old for a full season in CF (maybe LF option?).

Not really seeing much else that would be options.

Should note (before someone suggests they should not have traded Grisham … who will cost about $5MM … in 2023, Grisham only had a 0.1 dWAR (not the gold glove rep) and hit a lowly 79 wRC+ vs RHP. Not much different than the other options considering everything and we don’t know what part of the return on Soto came from the inclusion Grisham.

IF Taylor comes in on a 1 year deal lower than $8MM … maybe for his defense. Maybe turn to Jankowski (at well less than $5MM) to platoon with Azocar until they deem Marsee ready (if he is really considered a ML CF). Maybe they are “forced” to move Tatis to CF when this resolves … easier to fill the corners … and if Marsee not viewed as the future CF … no internal prospect until Head 3-4 years out (if ever).

CF is the one position that least comfortable the Padres can fill well.

Quote from BoosterSD on January 10, 2024, 8:32 am

I guess it boils down to budget and backfill. If you can find a CFer, then we leave Tatis in RF. If you move Tatis to CF, then you need to backfill two corner OF spots. Easier as far as number of candidates that can cover corners v. CF, but they usually have decent bats and require bigger salaries.

If I can get Kepler from MIN, then you could move Tatis to CF, and sign Profar for LF. Both of those adds should be about $15M.

If you can get Taylor for under $8M, and sign Profar for LF, thats about $13M, so a little cheaper.

Kepler should be more productive at the plate than Taylor, but would also cost both additional dollars and prospects to obtain.

Still intrigued by the idea of Marlowe from SEA. League min., LHH, can steal bases, and showed OBP around .365 for his MiL career. Should be a lesser prospect asset get than Kepler, and should bat about the same as Taylor, without the power and save about $7.5M. Sure, he might be a redundant piece when compared to Marsee, but I dont think Marsee is ready, and some have questioned his ML CF defense. So should be a decent gamble.

Quote from fenn68 on January 10, 2024, 9:34 am

I would not rule out Kepler as the RF option (Tatis to CF). MINN picked up his $10MM option ... but reported they did that because there were teams interested in trading for him and although they want to reduce payroll believed they could clear the contract and get some prospects.

Kepler would be an above average defense RF and had a good offensive 2023 (not so much in 2021-22). LHH who hit RHP well (a Padre need) with some legit power.

Not sure on what it would take in terms of prospects to get him ... knowing just a rental and MINN very willing to move him to clear the contract ... maybe not to steep if the reality of other bidders is just not there. Plus Preller does like players performing in their "walk year".

As for using $10MM of the potential $20MM on Kepler ... probably a lot better than adding Taylor for CF in the $8MM+ range. Buys a year for one (or more) of Marsee, Pauley, Merrill to get ready for the ML. Add Kepler and Profar (as the 3rd bat, utility) ... still would have maybe $5-7MM for the LF slot (or DH/1B if Profar goes to LF).

Might just make sense given the alternatives ... contingent on MINN being willing to deal and not holding out for a premium prospect. Maybe "average" offensive projection but combining his offense / defense he has been a 2 WAR player for the last three seasons ... so some confidence in his production for 2024. Of course have to be comfortable with moving Tatis to CF.

Quote from BoosterSD on January 10, 2024, 9:59 am

Quote from fenn68 on January 10, 2024, 9:34 am

Might just make sense given the alternatives ... contingent on MINN being willing to deal and not holding out for a premium prospect. Maybe "average" offensive projection but combining his offense / defense he has been a 2 WAR player for the last three seasons ... so some confidence in his production for 2024. Of course have to be comfortable with moving Tatis to CF.

I did read that MIN may be looking for SP in return for Kepler, adds a twist since that is something that SD is lacking as well. Perhaps a 3 team trade where SD sends Kim to MIA, MIA sends a SP to MIN, and MIN sends Kepler to SD.

I know 3 team deals are tough to facilitate, although in this scenario I think everyone gets what they are looking for, and SD gets Kepler for a net $3M. Would have to live with a Batten type at 3B until the return of Machado to being able to field. That $3M could go towards a LF or 1B, depending on where you want to field Profar.

Quote from fenn68 on January 10, 2024, 10:31 am

Quote from BoosterSD on January 10, 2024, 9:59 am

Quote from fenn68 on January 10, 2024, 9:34 am

Might just make sense given the alternatives ... contingent on MINN being willing to deal and not holding out for a premium prospect. Maybe "average" offensive projection but combining his offense / defense he has been a 2 WAR player for the last three seasons ... so some confidence in his production for 2024. Of course have to be comfortable with moving Tatis to CF.

I did read that MIN may be looking for SP in return for Kepler, adds a twist since that is something that SD is lacking as well. Perhaps a 3 team trade where SD sends Kim to MIA, MIA sends a SP to MIN, and MIN sends Kepler to SD.

I know 3 team deals are tough to facilitate, although in this scenario I think everyone gets what they are looking for, and SD gets Kepler for a net $3M. Would have to live with a Batten type at 3B until the return of Machado to being able to field. That $3M could go towards a LF or 1B, depending on where you want to field Profar.

Just creates a different hole … now in the INF … with Kim gone. Croney to 2B is fine but still need a LF, 1B, 3rd hitter (only one of these goes to Profar). Would add that Kim was a 4.4 WAR guy while Kepler was around 2 WAR. Padres would have to get a lot more back.

Plus have to be careful about Machado’s elbow really restricting his 3B role for longer than hoped. Just going to be hard to justify dealing Kim unless it has a mega return for the Padres … and that probably requires a quality add with multiple year control.

_________________

Playing Preller here … objective is to deal for Kepler for the lowest possible return MINN will take … not what Kepler is “worth” based on WAR (or anything else).

Now Preller has spoken to other teams, agents, his informants about everyone … and that probability includes where MINN stands. So,

1. How motivated is MINN to clear Kepler’s contract (they do have other OF options)?

2. Are there really any other teams trying to deal for Kepler (never want to be bidding against yourself) and if there are it is likely they would be contenders who are not likely to deal from the ML roster … so offers would likely be prospects.

3. If MINN wants SP … not easy to get from any contender in this market for one year of Kepler if MINN want a league minimum type of any quality.

If that is how Preller sees it … he may (at this point) just make a somewhat low offer and put the ball in MINN court to find something better (maybe a future adjustment if another bidder shows up). Maybe he offers something from the mix of Avila or Waldren and a mid-range prospect (but takes the full contract) … or goes more upside and dangles a Bergert type with a complementary mid-range prospect.

Having heard no rumors of trade interest in Kepler from anyone … and going with the reports that MINN wants to shed payroll … start low ball and maybe get lucky

Quote from MrPadre19 on January 10, 2024, 11:10 am

Besides the obvious reasons of not moving Tatis to Cf,his arm and Platinum glove,I cringe just thinking about him running wild out there and diving for balls to his left and right.

He's a wild man on the field.

He has a repaired shoulder and wirst.

Please,for the love of Gwynn.....leave him in RF!

 

 

Quote from BoosterSD on January 10, 2024, 11:44 am

Quote from fenn68 on January 10, 2024, 10:31 am

 

Plus have to be careful about Machado’s elbow really restricting his 3B role for longer than hoped. Just going to be hard to justify dealing Kim unless it has a mega return for the Padres … and that probably requires a quality add with multiple year control.

________________

I guess it comes down to the real value of Kim. Is he really a 4.4 WAR player, or does he slip back towards his 2022 performance? While understand his value on the team, but with him only being under contract for one more season, and Bogaerts and Crone under longer contracts, and Merrill on his way I lean towards selling "high" on Kim. I realize this is not the popular opinion on this site, but I still think its best for the team.

IMO the trade of Kim netting Kepler would be a benefit to the team. Although that would mean Tatis to CF, which may lead to its own issues as well.

Quote from BoosterSD on January 10, 2024, 11:46 am

Quote from MrPadre19 on January 10, 2024, 11:10 am

Besides the obvious reasons of not moving Tatis to Cf,his arm and Platinum glove,I cringe just thinking about him running wild out there and diving for balls to his left and right.

Even in RF he is still diving for balls so that is really a wash. However, in CF he would not have the harder RF boundary walls to run into, so that could be beneficial.

Quote from fenn68 on January 10, 2024, 12:11 pm

Quote from BoosterSD on January 10, 2024, 11:44 am

Quote from fenn68 on January 10, 2024, 10:31 am

 

Plus have to be careful about Machado’s elbow really restricting his 3B role for longer than hoped. Just going to be hard to justify dealing Kim unless it has a mega return for the Padres … and that probably requires a quality add with multiple year control.

________________

I guess it comes down to the real value of Kim. Is he really a 4.4 WAR player, or does he slip back towards his 2022 performance? While understand his value on the team, but with him only being under contract for one more season, and Bogaerts and Crone under longer contracts, and Merrill on his way I lean towards selling "high" on Kim. I realize this is not the popular opinion on this site, but I still think its best for the team.

IMO the trade of Kim netting Kepler would be a benefit to the team. Although that would mean Tatis to CF, which may lead to its own issues as well.

The key is that they don’t have to trade Kim (or anything close) to get Kepler … and no desire to deal Kim just to get rid of him. Now would trade Kim … but for a much better return package (cheaper and for the longer term value pieces).

Sure Kim may regress (so may Kepler) but Kim has been 4.4 (2023) and 3.7 (2022) WAR, so even a 50% regression and he still has value but a high confidence level will continue near those levels. Good for the Padres and good value as a trade chip.