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OFFSEASON 2023-24

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This is a "you are here" look at the Padres offense line-up given the current roster (Red payers are critical questions):

  1. Kim ... 2B
  2. Cronenworth (L) ... 1B
  3. Tatis ... RF
  4. Machado ... DH/3B
  5. Bogearts ... SS
  6. Campusano / Sullivan (L) ... C
  7. Azocar ... CF
  8. Batten ... LF
  9. Rosario ... 3B/DH

That is 10 leaving 3 unfilled slots with "potential" fills from:

Roster: IL: Marcano (L) ... INF

Prospects (with partial AA experience): Merrill (L) ... INF; Pauley (L) ... INF/OF; Marsee (L) ... OF

Non-Roster other: Mitchell (L) ... LF; Mercado ... CF; Johnson (#) ... OF; 

Mix and match as you will but the current roster is woefully short and lacks LHH to start 2024. Worse once the first injury occurs ... zero depth and a poor 7-9 in the line-up. Don't forget the core 6 do get injuries and do get days off pulling in more of the "red" options.

The odds of all three (or any) of the prospects being ML ready on opening day is near zero ... maybe get lucky with one..

With $20-25MM to deploy ... and the price of the very limited number of "better" FA ... filling three slots (at least two starters) will be a challenge to convince enough FA to sign with the Padres (at the Padres price) vs offers from other teams. At least not much is coming off the board yet this winter in the range the Padres are likely targeting.

Quote from lafnboy13 on January 8, 2024, 6:28 am

A concerning thing that I've been reading is the extent of Machado's elbow injury. How's this for a thought? When Machado's elbow is good enough to play the field we put him at first until, at least, we see the extent of how his elbow will play. Possibly, just giving the elbow a year to heal. This would solve many problems.

Would be interesting to hear Manny's opinion of that (guess better than DH for him ... in his mind ... but going to be hard to keep Manny from insisting an early return to 3B even if hurting).

Kim to 3B (has been the current thinking while Manny is DH) ... Bogaerts stays at SS (keeps him happy) ... Croney returns to 2B (where he should be).

Quote from fenn68 on January 8, 2024, 6:53 am
Quote from lafnboy13 on January 8, 2024, 6:28 am

A concerning thing that I've been reading is the extent of Machado's elbow injury. How's this for a thought? When Machado's elbow is good enough to play the field we put him at first until, at least, we see the extent of how his elbow will play. Possibly, just giving the elbow a year to heal. This would solve many problems.

Would be interesting to hear Manny's opinion of that (guess better than DH for him ... in his mind ... but going to be hard to keep Manny from insisting an early return to 3B even if hurting).

Kim to 3B (has been the current thinking while Manny is DH) ... Bogaerts stays at SS (keeps him happy) ... Croney returns to 2B (where he should be).

Manny is with us for 10 more years. It would be wise for him to take a year off from 3B throws for the sake of the remaining 9 years. Not to mention it would help the team the most this year. Our IF would be properly configured.

Quote from lafnboy13 on January 8, 2024, 7:27 am
Quote from fenn68 on January 8, 2024, 6:53 am
Quote from lafnboy13 on January 8, 2024, 6:28 am

A concerning thing that I've been reading is the extent of Machado's elbow injury. How's this for a thought? When Machado's elbow is good enough to play the field we put him at first until, at least, we see the extent of how his elbow will play. Possibly, just giving the elbow a year to heal. This would solve many problems.

Would be interesting to hear Manny's opinion of that (guess better than DH for him ... in his mind ... but going to be hard to keep Manny from insisting an early return to 3B even if hurting).

Kim to 3B (has been the current thinking while Manny is DH) ... Bogaerts stays at SS (keeps him happy) ... Croney returns to 2B (where he should be).

Manny is with us for 10 more years. It would be wise for him to take a year off from 3B throws for the sake of the remaining 9 years. Not to mention it would help the team the most this year. Our IF would be properly configured.

Wise … maybe … but with Manny’s major ego not likely. Remember he wants to play every day (injured or not) and in 2022 … injured couldn’t play but refused to go on the IL … which would have been good for his healing and better for fielding a complete roster … as it is he did not play for over a week. He prides himself as an elite 3B … going to do everything to push the return.

Now have not heard any projections of his injury being a long term issue … more like a month into the season … but never know so need to keep options open.

If there is a concern in the Padres FO … maybe a reason NOT to target a FA DH/1B leaving that slot to carry Machado through (or deep into) the season.

Reading through MLBTR about SEA and after their trades are still looking to improve the INF (3B or 2B) and RP. They do have plenty of SP, so wondering about a trade.

Would a trade around Kim and Desclafani work? SEA is close to their spending limit as well, so money needs to be close for it to work for both teams.

SEA gets Kim ($7M) and Suarez ($10M). SD gets Deslafani ($12M), Rojas ($3.5M), and Marlowe ($LM). Net money is $1.5M±. SD gets a SP, back up INF in Rojas (LHH), and Marlowe (LHH) a OBP type CFer.

If SEA wanted Crone instead of Kim, that should work as well. Not sure if SEA would want Crone though.

Quote from fenn68 on January 8, 2024, 8:04 am
Quote from lafnboy13 on January 8, 2024, 7:27 am
Quote from fenn68 on January 8, 2024, 6:53 am
Quote from lafnboy13 on January 8, 2024, 6:28 am

A concerning thing that I've been reading is the extent of Machado's elbow injury. How's this for a thought? When Machado's elbow is good enough to play the field we put him at first until, at least, we see the extent of how his elbow will play. Possibly, just giving the elbow a year to heal. This would solve many problems.

Would be interesting to hear Manny's opinion of that (guess better than DH for him ... in his mind ... but going to be hard to keep Manny from insisting an early return to 3B even if hurting).

Kim to 3B (has been the current thinking while Manny is DH) ... Bogaerts stays at SS (keeps him happy) ... Croney returns to 2B (where he should be).

Manny is with us for 10 more years. It would be wise for him to take a year off from 3B throws for the sake of the remaining 9 years. Not to mention it would help the team the most this year. Our IF would be properly configured.

Wise … maybe … but with Manny’s major ego not likely. Remember he wants to play every day (injured or not) and in 2022 … injured couldn’t play but refused to go on the IL … which would have been good for his healing and better for fielding a complete roster … as it is he did not play for over a week. He prides himself as an elite 3B … going to do everything to push the return.

Now have not heard any projections of his injury being a long term issue … more like a month into the season … but never know so need to keep options open.

If there is a concern in the Padres FO … maybe a reason NOT to target a FA DH/1B leaving that slot to carry Machado through (or deep into) the season.

IIRC, the article was in SI. I try to find it and post it here.

Quote from BoosterSD on January 8, 2024, 9:00 am

Reading through MLBTR about SEA and after their trades are still looking to improve the INF (3B or 2B) and RP. They do have plenty of SP, so wondering about a trade.

Would a trade around Kim and Desclafani work? SEA is close to their spending limit as well, so money needs to be close for it to work for both teams.

SEA gets Kim ($7M) and Suarez ($10M). SD gets Deslafani ($12M), Rojas ($3.5M), and Marlowe ($LM). Net money is $1.5M±. SD gets a SP, back up INF in Rojas (LHH), and Marlowe (LHH) a OBP type CFer.

If SEA wanted Crone instead of Kim, that should work as well. Not sure if SEA would want Crone though.

Saw that and have been trying to shuffle pieces that work for both teams.

First stay away from DeSalafani who has lingering elbow issues (2022 … 19 innings … 6.33 ERA / 2023 … 99.2 innings … 4.88 ERA) at $12MM just is not worth considering.

However, Seattle is currently not even near the CBT number and is $10-15MM under their 2023 payroll … so logically some room to take on payroll … and consider the won 88 games last season and was in the running for the playoffs I can see them motivated. So could easily see them being interested in either Kim or Cronenworth.

Preller and DiPoto have made deals.

Problem is more on the Padres side with only 6 core hitters for a 9 player line-up … deleting either Kim or Cronenworth makes a bad problem worse. Plus have to factor in the Machado injury not allowing him to play the field (potentially) for some time into the season.

Really have a problem formulating and beneficial trades (on a net basis) given the roster is just a facade with maybe 13 good ML players and then 13 fillers that few would want and give up much (if anything) for.

Quote from fenn68 on January 8, 2024, 10:51 am

 

Saw that and have been trying to shuffle pieces that work for both teams.

First stay away from DeSalafani who has lingering elbow issues (2022 … 19 innings … 6.33 ERA / 2023 … 99.2 innings … 4.88 ERA) at $12MM just is not worth considering.

However, Seattle is currently not even near the CBT number and is $10-15MM under their 2023 payroll … so logically some room to take on payroll … and consider the won 88 games last season and was in the running for the playoffs I can see them motivated. So could easily see them being interested in either Kim or Cronenworth.

Preller and DiPoto have made deals.

Problem is more on the Padres side with only 6 core hitters for a 9 player line-up … deleting either Kim or Cronenworth makes a bad problem worse. Plus have to factor in the Machado injury not allowing him to play the field (potentially) for some time into the season.

Really have a problem formulating and beneficial trades (on a net basis) given the roster is just a facade with maybe 13 good ML players and then 13 fillers that few would want and give up much (if anything) for.

I do get some of your points, and thought about some of that as well.

First, although SEA is not near the CBT levels, they are only about $8-10M above where they were last season, and the MLBTR blurb did mention that DiPoto does not have an unlimited budget, so getting Kim and another RP for $1.5M is really kind of a bargain.

Regarding Desclafani, he did pitch 100 innings last season, so on the mend? SEA just acquired him, so at least SEA thinks that the elbow is OK. That could be a gamble, although almost any pitcher is a gamble.

The 2nd piece Marlowe, while he not be a needle mover, but might be the best option for CF over anyone currently on the SD roster except for Tatis. But leave Tatis in RF IMO.

The 3rd piece, Rojas could platoon with Batten at 3B until Machado can field, and then would just become a bench piece even when Merrill could be ready.

In this trade SD does add one additional position player over what we have now. Plus, the extra $1.5M could then go towards a LFer and a 1B and we have another SP in the fold.

Sure not a perfect trade, but as you have mentioned, SD is in a difficult spot trying to find trades that will both financially and roster wise for both teams. But it may not be as bad as you are thinking.

I would imagine Descalafini has about as much trade value as Marco Gonzales. I haven't seen the exact number, but the Braves reportedly paid his salary down below the 7.75m they were on the hook for after the trade with the Mariners in order to trade him to the Pirates for a PTBNL. Rojas could be a non-tender candidate once teams start exchanging arbitration numbers here shortly. I don't think we're really looking to dump Suarez with what looks like a promising, but somewhat unproven bullpen mix. Even if we were I think we would need a lot more added to move Kim.

Quote from BoosterSD on January 8, 2024, 11:29 am
Quote from fenn68 on January 8, 2024, 10:51 am

 

Saw that and have been trying to shuffle pieces that work for both teams.

First stay away from DeSalafani who has lingering elbow issues (2022 … 19 innings … 6.33 ERA / 2023 … 99.2 innings … 4.88 ERA) at $12MM just is not worth considering.

However, Seattle is currently not even near the CBT number and is $10-15MM under their 2023 payroll … so logically some room to take on payroll … and consider the won 88 games last season and was in the running for the playoffs I can see them motivated. So could easily see them being interested in either Kim or Cronenworth.

Preller and DiPoto have made deals.

Problem is more on the Padres side with only 6 core hitters for a 9 player line-up … deleting either Kim or Cronenworth makes a bad problem worse. Plus have to factor in the Machado injury not allowing him to play the field (potentially) for some time into the season.

Really have a problem formulating and beneficial trades (on a net basis) given the roster is just a facade with maybe 13 good ML players and then 13 fillers that few would want and give up much (if anything) for.

I do get some of your points, and thought about some of that as well.

First, although SEA is not near the CBT levels, they are only about $8-10M above where they were last season, and the MLBTR blurb did mention that DiPoto does not have an unlimited budget, so getting Kim and another RP for $1.5M is really kind of a bargain.

Regarding Desclafani, he did pitch 100 innings last season, so on the mend? SEA just acquired him, so at least SEA thinks that the elbow is OK. That could be a gamble, although almost any pitcher is a gamble.

The 2nd piece Marlowe, while he not be a needle mover, but might be the best option for CF over anyone currently on the SD roster except for Tatis. But leave Tatis in RF IMO.

The 3rd piece, Rojas could platoon with Batten at 3B until Machado can field, and then would just become a bench piece even when Merrill could be ready.

In this trade SD does add one additional position player over what we have now. Plus, the extra $1.5M could then go towards a LFer and a 1B and we have another SP in the fold.

Sure not a perfect trade, but as you have mentioned, SD is in a difficult spot trying to find trades that will both financially and roster wise for both teams. But it may not be as bad as you are thinking.

If the Padres trade Kim, a legitimate star SS, they aren't going to do it for 3 scrub level replacement players. I tried entering your trade in BTV and it laughed at me. I can see something like Kim and Iriarte for Bryce Miller, but Kim for scrubs? I don't see it.

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