Quote from Jeremy Hill on January 7, 2024, 8:43 am

I'm starting to wonder if AJ might just let Marsee, Azocar, Mercado and whoever else battle it out for the CF job and use the savings to go after a higher quality starter.

Would you rather have say a Stroman or Imanaga plus the winner or a Taylor and 5th starter type?

Quote from fenn68 on January 7, 2024, 10:33 am

Quote from Jeremy Hill on January 7, 2024, 8:43 am

I'm starting to wonder if AJ might just let Marsee, Azocar, Mercado and whoever else battle it out for the CF job and use the savings to go after a higher quality starter.

Would you rather have say a Stroman or Imanaga plus the winner or a Taylor and 5th starter type?

Funny, I was just thinking the opposite and Preller goes with Vasquez and Brito … maybe sub Avila or Waldren … the roll the dice on one (or more) of the prospects are ready in the second half if needed.

With only $20-22MM to use under the threshold (I am reserving about $3-5MM for mid-season call-ups / adds necessitated by the inevitable IL stints and just bad performance) … can’t afford Stroman or Imanaga each will be $20MM+ and on longer term deals. Plus they will be an issue for years ahead and serve as blocks for the near term pitching prospects.

Then, in 2024 they would basically have to fill 3 offensive slots … all at league minimum. Don’t think the Padres have the internal pieces to do that successfully in 2024 … maybe a better choice in 2025.

Past the top FA arms … the next tier is still probably too costly (see Manaea) for the quality  … on the other hand, the CF/LF options don’t inspire confidence. Maybe the same thinking on bats … go with 3 hitters for $20MM total to cover three “starting’ roles and let Marsee, Pauley, Merrill get a half season in the minors for a mid-season call up (might just to cover injuries). Not much to call up realistically beyond them.

I am more confident in the current roster (and non-roster) covering the #4-5 SP that covering CF, LF, and another starting hitter.

Quote from Jeremy Hill on January 7, 2024, 1:27 pm

Quote from fenn68 on January 7, 2024, 10:33 am

Quote from Jeremy Hill on January 7, 2024, 8:43 am

I'm starting to wonder if AJ might just let Marsee, Azocar, Mercado and whoever else battle it out for the CF job and use the savings to go after a higher quality starter.

Would you rather have say a Stroman or Imanaga plus the winner or a Taylor and 5th starter type?

Funny, I was just thinking the opposite and Preller goes with Vasquez and Brito … maybe sub Avila or Waldren … the roll the dice on one (or more) of the prospects are ready in the second half if needed.

With only $20-22MM to use under the threshold (I am reserving about $3-5MM for mid-season call-ups / adds necessitated by the inevitable IL stints and just bad performance) … can’t afford Stroman or Imanaga each will be $20MM+ and on longer term deals. Plus they will be an issue for years ahead and serve as blocks for the near term pitching prospects.

Then, in 2024 they would basically have to fill 3 offensive slots … all at league minimum. Don’t think the Padres have the internal pieces to do that successfully in 2024 … maybe a better choice in 2025.

Past the top FA arms … the next tier is still probably too costly (see Manaea) for the quality  … on the other hand, the CF/LF options don’t inspire confidence. Maybe the same thinking on bats … go with 3 hitters for $20MM total to cover three “starting’ roles and let Marsee, Pauley, Merrill get a half season in the minors for a mid-season call up (might just to cover injuries). Not much to call up realistically beyond them.

I am more confident in the current roster (and non-roster) covering the #4-5 SP that covering CF, LF, and another starting hitter.

I don't think Stroman gets 20. He might be able to come close on a shorter deal. Lucas Giolito came up just shy on a shorter deal. Eduardo Rodriguez got 4/80. I don't think he's likely to do better than them. Imanaga might have the better chance. It seems like he's expected to break 100m in total value. If he doesn't go much over that could still be in the teens on a 6 year deal. The bigger issue might be that it's a little late to jump into that market and I don't know that we would be super keen to pay a big posting fee.

I would apply the same logic to hitters. If they're ok with the pitching situation I might still look to go cheap in CF. I'd try to get Joc Pederson and pair him with someone like Robbie Grossman or Randal Grichuk in LF. Then add someone like Justin Turner or Rhys Hoskins who could cover 1B while Manny is limited and transition to a primary DH role later. I just really don't like what's left on the CF market. I look at it as sort of a quality over quantity approach.

I also think it's worth noting that Spotrac has our luxury tax payroll over 5m lower than Fangraphs. The difference seems to be that Fangraphs has money for players with non-guaranteed contracts. Maybe we have a little more to spend than we think.

Quote from fenn68 on January 7, 2024, 2:42 pm

Think what Fangraphs is trying to do is fill out the 26 man roster with league minimum types to create a baseline … So if they added an “upgrade” the add would be the contract less league minimum already implied. So, sign someone for $7.750MM and Fangraph’s number would only go up $7MM net. Think that is their logic.

Some of the other sites (not sure on Spotrac) just price out the players under contract (along with the non-roster stuff). Plus don’t know how the price out the 40 man roster players not on the 26 man roster (that should be around $1MM.

So a little bit of slop in everyone’s estimate … but guessing it is in the $1-3MM range probably to the short side.

Quote from fenn68 on January 7, 2024, 3:04 pm

On the pitching, isn’t Imanaga’s posting ending next week … so a decision should be soon and re-shape the SP market. Did read a scouting report and he is likely (if is as promised) more of a mid-rotation guy … so the length / cost of a contract may be the issue. Still the consensus is near the $20MM level.

Stroman is a question after what was a good (early) 2023 … injury … bad (late) 2023. Most were having him take a shorter deal (3 years) given his age but still near $20MM. However, not much on the rumor trail on him except he (his agent?) seem to be actively seeing teams to pursue him … not the other way around. Said he would like to return to Cubs … they seem not interested. Today a report had him contacting the NYY saying he is interested … apparently the NYY are not. Maybe all that changes after Snell, Montgomery, and Imanaga are settled.

Guessing this stretches out given pure supply of quality (low) and demand (high) being shaped by Boras who has most of the top FA and just has no problem taking his FA down to the wire (and sometime after). Don’t think Boras will break … so which teams will panic and buy at Boras’ terms (and we know that will be high). If not a Boras client, have to think also waiting will have the benefit of Boras’ clients being priced high and a team’s uncertainty of having the winning bid to try to push up their demands with teams “panicking”

This may be a long wait.

Quote from Randy Manese on January 7, 2024, 8:25 pm

8 days before the De Vries signing.  If current minor league Padres who emerged last year continue to develop and we see expected growth from other prospects in the 2022 and 2023 draft classes, our organizational minor league system ranking should go from bottom of the top 10 to closer to the top 5 with the addition of De Vries.  Because of budget restrictions and how close the talent evaluators believe the top of the prospect crop is to making major league debuts with close to league average results in the short run, don't think Preller will move any of the Top 7 before the season starts.  We're not expecting the next Acuna or Ohtani, just a regular or two who may be at least as good as Grisham, Dahl, Engel, Carpenter, Cruz, Odor, Nola, etc. were at the beginning and/or throughout the 2023 season - the bar is not that high.

Because the success of pitchers is so unpredictable (both positively and negatively), my guess is Preller will likely use the remainder of the budget under the 1st level of the CBT on short term fixes for the everyday line-up and bench.  Can see Profar and Cooper into that mix but I'm sure they'll be others that emerge as we get closer to spring training and some of the more stacked teams have to make tough cuts.  Similarly, who knows how ready our internal candidate are even with only around 500 minor league AB's?  The next 30-60 days should be very interesting and I hope more positive than negative from a Padres fan viewpoint.  Let the kids play (or develop!).

Quote from Randy Manese on January 7, 2024, 8:40 pm

Don't believe they'll make any move with Kim or Cronenworth (unless they get an overwhelming offer) until Machado proves he can play 3b again defensively at the level we expect from him.  This will give time for Merrill and/or Pauley to show whether their projected above average hit tool plays at higher levels in the minors and whether they have at least average power to go along with decent BB/K ratios.  Since it took a perfect storm to sabotage virtually all our hitters with both nagging and serious injuries that put them well below their career averages in most statistical categories (particularly those concerning barrel %, exit velocity and hard-hit balls), the majority of the line-up should fare better - hopefully, that will be enough to keep us competitive in 2024.

Quote from MrPadre19 on January 8, 2024, 3:37 am

“ This will give time for Merrill and/or Pauley to show whether their projected above average hit tool plays at higher levels in the minors ”.

 

If they put them in AAA how will we even know?

Yes the coaches are watching them but when most of our good hitters hit  .340/390/450 there anyway who the heck knows what they’ll do at the next level.

Im sorry El Paso…but I absolutely hate that a team that plays at Petco has their AAA team there.

 

Note:this may or may not be the only time I say this “again” this year.

 

 

 

Quote from lafnboy13 on January 8, 2024, 6:28 am

A concerning thing that I've been reading is the extent of Machado's elbow injury. How's this for a thought? When Machado's elbow is good enough to play the field we put him at first until, at least, we see the extent of how his elbow will play. Possibly, just giving the elbow a year to heal. This would solve many problems.