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OFFSEASON 2023-24

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Quote from fenn68 on January 3, 2024, 7:48 am

Both MIA and CLEV could do better dealing with other teams if they wanted to move those two. Kim to MIA is still possible but since they are still a contender … will offer first prospects and maybe Rogers but not someone as valuable as Cabrera. Good chance MIA picks up a FA SS on the cheap.

While I know every outlet has its own way of measuring value, so you have to take that with a grain of salt. However, an independent source (BTV) actually values Rogers more than it does Cabrera.

So I still think that Kim is MIA best option for a SS for 2024, and IMO offers more value to SD in a trade than he would on the field, considering after the return on Machado to 3B, it becomes a game of misplacing players. Would rather go with a Batten/Pauley option at 3B and get a SP for Kim.

Didn't see this posted, but the Padres finally announced their ML coaching staff.

Tim Leiper is our 3b Coach and infield instructor.

Mike McCoy and Pat O'Sullivan are assistant hitting coaches.

Morgan Burkhart is the Major League Coaching Assistant.

Peter Summerville is the "Game Planning & Coaching Assistant"

David Macias, Ben Fritz, Ruben Niebla and the previously announced Victor Rodriguez are all in there, as well.

Quote from BoosterSD on January 3, 2024, 9:23 am
Quote from fenn68 on January 3, 2024, 7:48 am

Both MIA and CLEV could do better dealing with other teams if they wanted to move those two. Kim to MIA is still possible but since they are still a contender … will offer first prospects and maybe Rogers but not someone as valuable as Cabrera. Good chance MIA picks up a FA SS on the cheap.

While I know every outlet has its own way of measuring value, so you have to take that with a grain of salt. However, an independent source (BTV) actually values Rogers more than it does Cabrera.

So I still think that Kim is MIA best option for a SS for 2024, and IMO offers more value to SD in a trade than he would on the field, considering after the return on Machado to 3B, it becomes a game of misplacing players. Would rather go with a Batten/Pauley option at 3B and get a SP for Kim.

I can see the debate between Cabrera and Rogers … both have had some injury issues and neither have had a “clean” ML history of production. Advantage if close goes to Cabrera with 5 control years vs Rogers with only 3. Otherwise flip a coin in some views.

Looking at it from MIA side … are they just as well served by keeping the SP (never have enough pitching) and signing a FA for about the same as Kim’s cost (e.g. Ahmed Rosario, Anderson, Crawford, or Andrus)? SS not as good as with Kim but has to be some question as to whether 2023 was a career year for Kim so maybe not the 4.4 WAR player going forward for 2024. MIA has alternatives.

Would trade Kim for the right return … but not just to move him and his contract. Beginning to think the 1 remaining year of control coupled with the few teams setting SS as a priority is depressing Kim’s trade value. Need a motivated buyer … not sure there is one.

Since Kim may be the bubble guy having only one year control … can the Padres build some logic for extending him (maybe a Lee level deal) at 5 years / $18MM AAV?

First of all he is a very good player who delivered a 4.4 WAR in 2023 …elite defense wherever his plays .. still in his 20s … major hustle and a fan favorite.

Second, Padres are potentially still trying to move Cronenworth … they might just get successful over the next few years … leaving a bit of a hole if Kim is gone.

Third, other than Merrill on the door step of ML … Padres really don’t have a middle INF (specifically SS) in the full season queue for impact in the next 4 years. (Note don’t really see Pauley as the future 2B).

Even if they don’t trade Cronenworth, for the next few years an INF/DH rotation of Machado, Kim, Merrill, Bogaerts, Cronenworth could be quite impressive … or could open the door for one to emerge in the OF.

IF Kim is willing (no guarantee he is) … extending him may be the better short and long team play than just getting a marginal 2024 add or more prospects when near term Padres should be inundated with pitching prospects.

Clear that can be debated either way on the extension … but that may precede any trade debate and then debate the quality of the return helping in 2024 (and beyond).

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I'd love to extend Kim. His energy on and off the field are a huge part of the team's identity at this point, and there's clearly a ton of goodwill built up between him and the fanbase. I think that leaves plenty of juice to get an extension done, but the question is whether the Padres have the will or the means to do it.

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Jeremy Hill

At least the bullpen seems to be basically fully built and ready to go.

6 of 8 permanent spots filled: Suarez and Matsui for closer, Woo, De Los Santos, Cosgrove and Wilson for setup and important innings. That leaves only 2 spots up for competition. If Vasquez and Brito can't earn starter roles the Padres bullpen will be full. Lots of quality arms. That's a good thing at least.

Quote from fenn68 on January 3, 2024, 11:14 am

Since Kim may be the bubble guy having only one year control … can the Padres build some logic for extending him (maybe a Lee level deal) at 5 years / $18MM AAV?

First of all he is a very good player who delivered a 4.4 WAR in 2023 …elite defense wherever his plays .. still in his 20s … major hustle and a fan favorite.

I understand him being a fan favorite, clubhouse guy, great hustle, and great defense. However, the last thing that SD needs is another large value AAV for another INF, we have many more needs outside of INF. Plus in your last post, you just challenged whether Kim is really the 4.4 WAR guy, or will he regress.

IF SD is not going to push the upper echelon of payroll and try to stay close to the top of CBT without crossing over into the penalties levels, we have to realize that keeping Kim is not a reality.

The simple fact is that someone screwed the pooch when SD spent all that money on Bogaerts. And the penalty is that we will have to see players such as Kim leave because we do not have payroll room for them.

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Quote from BoosterSD on January 3, 2024, 11:54 am
Quote from fenn68 on January 3, 2024, 11:14 am

Since Kim may be the bubble guy having only one year control … can the Padres build some logic for extending him (maybe a Lee level deal) at 5 years / $18MM AAV?

First of all he is a very good player who delivered a 4.4 WAR in 2023 …elite defense wherever his plays .. still in his 20s … major hustle and a fan favorite.

I understand him being a fan favorite, clubhouse guy, great hustle, and great defense. However, the last thing that SD needs is another large value AAV for another INF, we have many more needs outside of INF. Plus in your last post, you just challenged whether Kim is really the 4.4 WAR guy, or will he regress.

IF SD is not going to push the upper echelon of payroll and try to stay close to the top of CBT without crossing over into the penalties levels, we have to realize that keeping Kim is not a reality.

The simple fact is that someone screwed the pooch when SD spent all that money on Bogaerts. And the penalty is that we will have to see players such as Kim leave because we do not have payroll room for them.

Actually they would have CBT room IF the prospects produce going forward and they stop signing big dollar FA.

Quote from BoosterSD on January 3, 2024, 11:54 am
Quote from fenn68 on January 3, 2024, 11:14 am

Since Kim may be the bubble guy having only one year control … can the Padres build some logic for extending him (maybe a Lee level deal) at 5 years / $18MM AAV?

First of all he is a very good player who delivered a 4.4 WAR in 2023 …elite defense wherever his plays .. still in his 20s … major hustle and a fan favorite.

I understand him being a fan favorite, clubhouse guy, great hustle, and great defense. However, the last thing that SD needs is another large value AAV for another INF, we have many more needs outside of INF. Plus in your last post, you just challenged whether Kim is really the 4.4 WAR guy, or will he regress.

IF SD is not going to push the upper echelon of payroll and try to stay close to the top of CBT without crossing over into the penalties levels, we have to realize that keeping Kim is not a reality.

The simple fact is that someone screwed the pooch when SD spent all that money on Bogaerts. And the penalty is that we will have to see players such as Kim leave because we do not have payroll room for them.

Hosmer's money comes off the books after 2025. A new TV deal could increase spending power again. We supposedly made a competitive offer to Lee. Prospects emerging at the major league level should let us narrow the focus of our spending. They should be able to keep Kim if they want to.

I also think Bogaerts gets unfairly blamed for the current financial situation. He performed to expectations. It's not his fault Cronenworth and Manny fell off. Looking at some of the underlying data I'm much more concerned about them than Bogaerts moving forward.

 

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Quote from sportwarrior on January 3, 2024, 10:11 am

Didn't see this posted, but the Padres finally announced their ML coaching staff.

Tim Leiper is our 3b Coach and infield instructor.

Mike McCoy and Pat O'Sullivan are assistant hitting coaches.

Morgan Burkhart is the Major League Coaching Assistant.

Peter Summerville is the "Game Planning & Coaching Assistant"

David Macias, Ben Fritz, Ruben Niebla and the previously announced Victor Rodriguez are all in there, as well.

Listened to the D.Smith show who was commenting on the new coaching staff and Shildt’s comments in today’s zoom.

This staff represents an interesting (and probably good) shift in philosophy. Two phrases … “internal continuity” and “care for the organization”. Note that most of the staff represents promotions internally and a hitting coach with good ties to Bogaerts.

In the past, many have praised STL, LAD, etc of having that continuity throughout the system which can deliver ML ready prospects and has coaches that are organization types (not just looking for the next job). Tommy Lasorda bled Dodger Blue … and that was a good for the LAD. Shildt has a lot of working knowledge of these guys from his past few seasons working with them. Finally creating the “Padre way”?

Not said … but logically … this also provides a better entry for the elite prospects to help the Padre prospects to impact 2024 … coaches know their pluses and minuses … have a working relationship … rookies will immediately have a better comfort level in transition. Avoids the potential of coaches who do not know the prospects coming in and changing them to fit the coach’s philosophy.

This all may be the clue to the future skewing toward internal prospects and away for the FA merry-go-round.

 

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